Climate change is fast emerging as the most formidable security challenge in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), reshaping its strategic and humanitarian landscape, said a report published yesterday by Toda Peace Institute in Tokyo.
The report titled ‘The Case for a Climate-First Maritime Reframing of the Indian Ocean Region’ said that rising sea levels, intensifying storms, and shifting monsoon patterns are already displacing communities, damaging infrastructure, and threatening livelihoods across one of the world’s most vital maritime zones.
The Indian Ocean, which links major economies across Asia, Africa and the Middle East, carries nearly 80 per cent of global seaborne oil trade. Home to close to three billion people — including 340 million in high-risk coastal zones — the region is also among the fastest-warming oceans on the planet. Scientists warn it could face near-permanent marine heatwaves in the coming decades, with far-reaching consequences for security and stability.
Governments around the IOR are beginning to recognise that climate and security are inseparable. Many have adopted national adaptation plans and pledged net-zero targets. Small Island Developing States such as the Maldives and Seychelles are on the front line, where rising seas, coral bleaching, and changing fish stocks have turned the climate threat into a daily reality.
Larger players, too, are shifting their focus. India’s SAGAR vision — “Security and Growth for All in the Region” — now includes environmental resilience, while Australia’s 2024 Defence Net Zero Strategy acknowledges climate change as a direct national security concern. Yet analysts say both countries, along with others in the region, have more work to do to fully integrate climate risk into their naval and maritime strategies.
Experts stress that climate security in the IOR must be viewed through a human-security lens — one that measures impact not just by state vulnerability, but by the safety and wellbeing of communities. Floods, rising seas, and heatwaves are displacing families, threatening food supplies, and worsening inequality. Women and marginalised groups, they note, bear the brunt of these disasters, facing higher livelihood losses and limited access to aid.
Analysts recommend three steps to better align climate and maritime security.
First, states should embed climate monitoring into maritime domain awareness — as seen in the Quad’s Indo-Pacific MDA initiative — but tailored to Indian Ocean realities.
Second, cooperation should move beyond slow-moving forums like the Indian Ocean Rim Association, focusing instead on flexible frameworks such as the Blue Economy.
Third, traditional security actors — including navies — must play a larger role in climate adaptation and disaster response.
The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which spurred regional cooperation and even the early formation of the Quad, remains a reminder that crises can catalyse collective action. As experts warn, the Indian Ocean’s future security will depend not just on power balances and trade routes, but on how nations confront a shared and escalating climate threat.