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China poised for diplomatic windfall in Sri Lanka elections

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Beijing backs politicians and influential Buddhist leaders, expert says

MARWAAN MACAN-MARKAR, Asia regional correspondent, Nikkei Asian Review

 

BANGKOK — China is cultivating a wide swathe of political allies in Sri Lanka ahead of the nation’s general elections on Aug. 5, marking a break from throwing its lot in with one dominant political camp.

 

Foreign policy insiders in the small South Asian nation reckon the strategy fortifies the edge China has over geopolitical adversaries India, Japan and the U.S. when it comes to influencing a country that straddles an increasingly contested stretch of the Indian Ocean.

 

This diplomatic shift, the insiders say, has been marked by quiet, behind-the-scenes meetings between Chinese emissaries and the leading political parties vying for votes ahead of elections that in a little more than two weeks will determine parliament’s 225 lawmakers.

 

The coronavirus’s impact in Sri Lanka provided China with an opening to demonstrate its newly tuned diplomacy. Song Tao, minister of the international department of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee, in June hosted a video conference with leaders of Sri Lanka’s major political parties to cultivate bipartisan bonds under the guise of fighting COVID-19.

 

The island nation has reported 2,674 infections and 11 deaths. According to Luo Chong, a spokesperson of the Chinese embassy in Colombo, the meeting was a goodwill gesture that has been repeated with other allies in the wake of the pandemic. “The International Department of the Communist Party of China conducted several joint-video conferences with different parties in Sri Lanka, Nepal, [the] Philippines, Indonesia and Arab counties, which is a common practice, especially under the current COVID-19 situation,” he told the Nikkei Asian Review.

 

The pandemic has boosted China’s influence in Sri Lanka, a veteran Sri Lankan diplomat said, referring to a $500 million loan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa desperately sought from China to help fight COVID-19.

 

“China is the only international player who has the funds to help with such emergencies,” the diplomat said. “Beijing was prompt because it knows which political players it is closer to in Sri Lanka — the Rajapaksas,” referring to the president and his elder brother Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, a former president.

 

But seasoned observers of Chinese diplomacy read more into Beijing’s preelection encounters with parties across Sri Lanka’s political spectrum.

 

Patrick Mendis, a visiting professor of global affairs at the National Chengchi University, based in Taiwan, said the CCP constantly adjusts its diplomacy based on previous outcomes. “It has remarkable agility to change as China learns from its past mistakes in Sri Lanka,” Mendis said. “Now, it supports not only political parties but influential Buddhist leaders, as China realizes the power of the Buddhist clergy in domestic politics.”

 

In 2015, China was perceived as backing then incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa. But Mahinda lost his reelection bid in a shock setback for the country’s most politically influential clan, the Rajapaksas, who had displayed signs of dynastic ambitions.

 

That 2015 poll, the second after the Rajapaksas presided over the end of a nearly 30-year Civil War, was marked by allegations that India, the regional power in South Asia, and China were bankrolling competing campaigns.

 

The Rajapaksa camp accused the Research and Analysis Wing, India’s spy agency, of pouring funds into a coalition of anti- Rajapaksa political parties to defeat Mahinda in his run for a third term.

 

Former President Maithripala Sirisena ended up winning, and his camp accused a Chinese company with investments in Sri Lanka of financing the Rajapaksa campaign.

 

Last year, in November, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, a former military lieutenant colonel, won a decisive mandate in the presidential poll, signaling voter appetite for a strongman leader after five years of a divisive and dysfunctional administration under an anti-Rajapaksa coalition.

 

While China burrowed deep into Sri Lankan politics — it has even commissioned local pollsters to gauge voter sentiment — it was also lavishing multibillion-dollar loans on the country for large infrastructure projects ranging from a new harbor and airport to highways. Not surprisingly, China accounts for 10% of Sri Lanka’s ballooning external debt of $55 billion. Compare that number to $88 billion, the size of the island’s economy

 

The China-funded projects have become a hot-button issue during election cycles as some Sri Lankan voters take a dislike to foreign money paying for strategic assets. “This was never the case before,” a senior South Asian diplomat said. “Foreign policy and foreign investment [used to have] bipartisan backing no matter which party won, but that has changed over the last few years, and strategic investments have become campaign fodder.”

 

As for Japan, for decades Sri Lanka’s largest bilateral lender and development partner, it now must deal with the Rajapaksa tilt toward China. Mere months into his first term, Gotabaya Rajapaksa has sent mixed messages to Japan about the fate of two multibillion-dollar infrastructure projects, both of which were championed by the previous coalition government.

 

One is an elevated light railway system through parts of Greater Colombo, the island’s largest commercial city. The new government says the rail will have to be delayed.

 

The other is an expanded container terminal in Colombo Port, which also has Indian and Sri Lankan backers. The tripartite agreement, signed in 2019 by the previous government, is also at the whim of the Rajapaksa government, which wants new terms. Japan appears unmoved for now. “There is no such fact that Japan and Sri Lanka have agreed to revise the plan of the LRT project,” an official at the Japanese Embassy in Colombo told Nikkei, referring to the Light Railway Transit project. “We understand that this project has so far been implemented as planned by the Sri Lankan implementing agency.”

 

But India’s government is fuming over the matter, especially now that the Rajapaksa camp is turning the Colombo Port container terminal project into an anti-India campaign issue.

 

Diplomatic sources in Colombo say India eyed a stake in the Colombo Port as a counterweight to China’s growing dominance in Sri Lanka’s maritime economy.

 

“The Indians don’t trust the Rajapaksas,” said a diplomat from a Western embassy in Sri Lanka’s former capital. “They see them as doubled-tongued. A reversal on the port project would see India returning to the pre-2015 days of distrusting Colombo.”

 

The U.S. faces a similar quandary. A $480 million grant under Washington’s so-called Millennium Challenge Corporation was partially meant to help upgrade Sri Lanka’s transport and logistics infrastructure, but it too has become an electoral football, as it was during the presidential election in November. Rajapaksa has profited from the anti-MCC campaign rhetoric of his ultranationalist constituency among the country’s Sinhala-Buddhist ethnic majority.

 

The U.S. may have to bite this political bullet to achieve its longer-termstrategic vision in the Indian Ocean, which includes Sri Lanka.

 

“Washington’s attention to Sri Lanka appears to be increasingly fueled by geostrategic concerns about China,” said Nilanthi Samaranayake, director for strategy and policy analysis at the Center for Naval Analysis, a Washington-based think tank. “[There is more] attention on Sri Lanka than ever before… [and there willbe] questions [after the elections] about which direction Sri Lankawill move in regarding its policies toward India, the U.S. and China.”



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‘Accountability issues’: Successive govts. failed armed forces: Shavendra

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Gen. Silva

“US, UK sanctions effectively prevented me from travelling to other countries as well”

Former GOC of the 58 Division General Shavendra Silva yesterday (18) found fault with successive governments since 2009 for failing to counter unsubstantiated war crimes accusations. The failure on the part of them led to punitive international measures against senior officers who spearheaded the offensive against the LTTE, the Gajaba veteran said.

Appearing on Derana 24/7 with Chathura Alwis, the former Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) declared his angst at the country’s failure at political level to address the issues at hand. The most decorated soldier was commenting on the 16th anniversary of the eradication of the LTTE’s conventional military capacity.

Sri Lanka brought the war to a successful conclusion on May 18, 2009, by bringing the entire northern province under government control. LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran was killed in the banks of the Nanthikadal lagoon on the following morning.

Referring to the US travel ban imposed on him, his wife and two daughters in February 2020 and the British sanctions declared in March this year, Gen. Silva said the US and British action had effectively restricted his overseas travel to south Asia.

The UK sanctioned Admiral of the Fleet Wasantha Karannagoda, former Army Commander Jagath Jayasuriya as well as former LTTE battlefield commander Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan alias Karuna.

Gen. Silva highlighted the protests carried out by pro-LTTE activists in London in February this year targeting Yohani de Silva whose father served as the GOC of 55 Division engaged in the Vanni offensive.

The protest was organised by the Tamil Youth Organisation of the UK.

Responding to another query, Gen. Silva, in his first interview since retirement as CDS on Dec 31, 2024, said that GoCs Gen Jagath Dias (57 Division), Gen. Kamal Gunaratne (53 Division), Maj. Gen. Nandana Udawatte (59 Division), Maj. Gen. Prasanna de Silva (55 Division) and Chagie Gallage as well as those who commanded Task Forces faced punitive international action.

Gen. Silva’s retirement coincided with the abolition of the Office of CDS by the NPP government.

At the onset of the interview, Gen. Silva strongly emphasised the need to celebrate the eradication of terrorism and liberation of the people. The outspoken ex-soldier said that the armed forces and police paid a very heavy price to bring the war to an end, a war that many believed couldn’t be brought to a successful conclusion. Gen. Silva pointed out the absurdity in doing away with military celebration as Sri Lanka still marks the end of WW I and WW 11.

On behalf of all Division and Task Force commanders on the northern front, I take this opportunity to thank officers and men and families of those who paid the supreme sacrifice and the wounded.

Gen. Silva asserted that the armed forces as a whole suffered as a result of their failure to conduct post-war examination of operations undertaken by fighting formations deprived of the opportunity to correctly establish their roles. The former Army Commander said that the other countries always undertook such examinations immediately after the end of operations.

Gen. Silva said that since the end of war the country never made an honest attempt to record the events thereby setting the record straight.

The Yahapalana government co-sponsored the US accountability resolution against the war-winning armed forces in Oct 2015.

Gen. Silva explained that failure on the part of political and military leaderships to reach consensus on a common narrative contributed to the growing international pressure on the country.

Appreciating the NPP government summoning Canadian High Commissioner Eric Walsh over the recent unveiling of so-called Tamil genocide memorial in Ontario, Gen. Silva said that before his retirement he briefed President Anura Kumara Dissanayake regarding the challenges faced on the Geneva front.President Dissanayake promised to look into this matter and take appropriate measures, Gen. Silva said. “I believe the President as promised will address the issues at hand.”

By Shamindra Ferdinando

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Govt. likely to lose more votes in N&E unless it adopts remedial measures

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Ambika

Ex-HRCSL member:

Human rights lawyer and former member of the Human Rights Commission (HRCSL) Ambika Satkunanathan has warned that the National People’s Power (NPP) will face the prospect of further drop in its vote share in the North and the East in the next Provincial Council polls unless it takes remedial measures.

Asked what would be the likely scenario at the forthcoming Provincial Council polls, Satkunanathan said that she didn’t want to speculate. However, if the NPP failed to acknowledge its mistakes and did not adopt remedial measures, its share of the vote amongst Tamils and Muslims was likely to be further reduced, the civil society activist said.

The Illankai Thamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK) contested 58 Local Government authorities at the recently concluded election. The ITAK won 40 out of 58 local authorities at the expense of the NPP that secured all northern and eastern electoral districts, except Batticaloa, at the parliamentary polls conducted last November.

The ITAK went it alone at the LG polls in the wake of the collapse of the TNA that served the interests of the LTTE during the war and threw its weight behind retired General Sarath Fonseka at the 2010 presidential election, less than a year after the eradication of the LTTE. General Fonseka secured all predominantly Tamil speaking electoral districts with the TNA backing but lost the election by 1.8 million votes.

Asked what had made the northern and eastern electorates switch allegiance to the ITAK and other Tamil parties within months after voting for NPP at the parliamentary polls, Ambika said: “Tamils have evolved into pragmatic voters and a range of factors likely influenced their vote at the local government election. Firstly, they have not seen any substantive or meaningful movement towards addressing their historical grievances and demands. For instance, instead of releasing lands occupied or that have been appropriated by the state, the government issued a gazette covering 5,940 acres of land in the Northern Province that it is seeking to appropriate. This is being done in what can only be called an insidious manner because they are not using the Land Appropriation Act, which would clearly demonstrate their intent to appropriate but the Land Settlement Ordinance. Where the repeal of the Prevention of Terrorism Act is concerned, they have appointed a committee to study the issue whereas the repeal of the law does not require any further study.

Asked whether the significant gains made by Tamil political parties at the expense of NPP and so-called Anura wave strengthened Tamil nationalism in the North-East, Ambika said President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s or NPP’s win in the presidential and parliamentary elections is not demonstrative of the weakening of Tamil nationalism and the win of the Tamil parties at the local government elections does not illustrate the strengthening of Tamil nationalism.

This is because, like in the 2010 Presidential election, the pragmatic Tamil vote, which to the external observer may seem like abandonment of their historical demands, in the eyes of the community is a way of safeguarding the community at that instance and making the best of a bad situation. It in no way means they have given up their historical demands. Also, Tamil nationalism over the years has taken on many forms and the electoral choice is not always a reliable indicator of it, she said.

Tamil political sources said that the ITAK would go it alone at the Provincial Council polls. Sources said that the ITAK would seek to consolidate its position against the backdrop of recent electoral success after significant setbacks in last Sept and November at national elections.

By Shamindra Ferdinando

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Parliament to meet from May 20 to 23

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(From L to R) Leader of the House Minister Bimal Ratnayake, Speaker Dr Jagath Wickremanayake, Secretary General of Parliament Kushani Rohandheera, Deputy Speaker Dr Rizvih Salih and Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa at the business committee meeting

Parliament will meet from Tuesday (20) to Friday (23), according to Secretary General Kushani Rohanadeera.The decision was made at the Committee on Parliamentary Business meeting held last Friday under the chairmanship of Speaker Dr. Jagath Wickramanayake.

The sittings will open on Tuesday (20) at 9.30 am with business under Standing Order 22(1) to (6), followed by an hour of oral questions. Statements by party leaders under Standing Order 27(2) are scheduled for 11 am, ahead of a debate on the Order under the Excise (Special Provisions) Act, which will run until 5 pm. The day’s proceedings will close with a half-hour debate on an Opposition-led adjournment motion.

On Wednesday (21), business resumes at 9.30 am, with oral questions at 10 am, followed by questions under Standing Order 27(2). The House will then debate financial regulations issued under the Finance Acts of 2003 and 2018 until 5 pm, before wrapping up with a session on the adjournment motion.

Thursday’s (22) sitting will follow a similar format, with a key debate on regulations under the Imports and Exports (Control) Act No. 1 of 1969 scheduled from 11.30 am to 5 pm. The Government will table the adjournment motion for the final half-hour of the day.

On Friday (23), after the usual question sessions, the House will take up the second reading of the Code of Criminal Procedure (Amendment) Bill, with the debate running from 11.30 am to 5 pm, followed by the closing adjournment motion discussion.

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