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Central Bank caught between peg and hard place

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ECONOMYNEXT –Sri Lanka’s central bank has been aggressively injecting liquidity on a longer term in the past weeks reducing liquidity shortages in the banking system, which if overdone could lead to forex shortages and instability again.

The central bank has injected 340 billion rupees through term injections – largely replacing lending window operations from January 09 and overnight injections began on January 17.

While liquidity shortages beyond a certain point have no value, care should be taken to ensure that excess liquidity conditions do not re-emerge.A liquidity shortage emerges in Sri Lanka’s banking system because a pegged regime is operated, despite whatever claims to the contrary.

In past currency crises, almost all the liquidity shortages from dollar sales (losses of foreign reserves) made to defend a peg were filled permanently to maintain an artificially low policy rate.

Currency crises and balance of payments deficits do not come from defending pegs as claimed by post 1935 academics and economic bureaucrats, but from money printed through open market operations to mis-target rates and maintain an artificially low policy rate after intervening.In this currency crisis, the worst created in the history of the central bank of Sri Lanka, large volumes of liquidity were only filled overnight. This is better than filling permanently, as it may prevent banks from giving credit due to asset liability mis-matches.

The liquidity injections allow banks to lend without deposits and trigger forex shortages, expand the external current account deficit – unless they were used to buy assets from fleeing foreign investors and more forex losses.

Classical economists have called such injections ‘fictitious capital’ in a pegged regime.However US academics (led by Mercantilists like John H Williams) and economic bureaucrats who built the Bretton Woods and the International Monetary Fund, thought it was possible to do so as their knowledge of classical theory seemed to have been weak, and instead used statistics to claim that it was possible.

That it was not possible was proved with the collapse of the Bretton Woods. But third world countries – outside of East Asia and GCC – continue to believe that it is possible, with disastrous consequences and never-ending trips to the IMF.A third world country is necessarily pegged. No single anchor regime country will remain poor for long.In past currency crises, foreign reserves losses (losses of NFA) were filled permanent purchases of Treasury securities, so large liquidity shortages running into hundreds of billions of rupees were not seen.

Outside of the net foreign assets losses, in this currency crisis, due to downgrades of credit, foreign banks parked large volumes of cash in the central bank instead of lending in the overnight market in a private sterilization style activity.As a result, a few foreign banks ended up with over 300 billion rupees of excess cash.

This is similar to people withdrawing cash from the banking system and burying them in proverbial coffee tins in their backyard as reportedly happened in the US during the Great Depression.A third reason for expanding liquidity shortages was the roll-over of central bank held Treasury bills (zero coupon bonds) with interest.

As a result, Sri Lanka’s net credit to government went up, without any changes in net foreign assets – since the central bank has run out of reserves – while reserve money or at least notes in circulation fell.

Over the past few weeks, the central bank started injecting liquidity (printing money) on a longer term basis reducing the overnight shortages.In addition, the central bank also stopped banks with excess cash from depositing money in the repo window at 14.50 percent, encouraging them to lend in the overnight market or buy Treasury bills.

This has started to happen and Treasury bill yield are coming down.Any of foreign bank money, or newly injected money that is used to buy Treasury bills will end up in state banks.

The central bank should maintain a liquidity short to absorb any liquidity that foreign banks use up to buy Treasury bills.The central bank was blamed by many for the current high rates.

Though it is true that country’s chronically high rates – and the high rates of all third world soft-pegged countries – are due to monetary instability coming from the central bank’s mis-management of a soft-pegged exchange rate regime, in this currency crises the threat of a domestic debt re-structuring has also contributed.

This column has warned for many years that the central bank cannot inject liquidity to suppress rates when private credit picks up and maintain the peg. Each time it is done, forex shortages emerge and the corrective rates are higher than if the rates were allowed to go up a little naturally to balance domestic credit and savings.

After months of injections, the rupee then collapses and rates go up steeply. This has happened repeatedly and has worsened under flexible inflation targeting. A floating exchange rate regime is needed for any type of inflation targeting (to operate a domestic anchor based monetary regime the external anchor has to be abandoned).In this context caution should be exercised in the current liquidity injections.

Sri Lanka is maintaining a peg at 360 to the US dollar without any reserves at the moment. It is done by a surrender rule where forced sales are made at around that price to the central bank, injecting liquidity and selling the same dollars back to banks.

Depending to the spread, this activity can also lead to liquidity shortages. In fact, the Bank of Thailand many decades ago re-built foreign reserves devastated by Japanese driven money printing during World War II, through such a strategy.

This column has in the past advocated floating the exchange rate and re-pegging, to re-establish the credibility of the peg. Before any float the surrender rule should be removed.

Exporters are still not selling forward, indicating that there is no market credibility for the 360 peg, though the central bank has operated monetary policy consistent with such a regime through liquidity shortages and negative private credit through higher rates.

Until the credibility of the peg is fully restored, some overnight liquidity shortages should to be maintained, especially at state banks, for the following reasons, despite private credit being negative.

a) The Treasury has warned that it may still require printed money. Overnight liquidity short should be large enough to absorb any such injections.

b) The first quarter of any year is where a drought comes and electricity sector losses are financed with credit. This column in early 2021 that rates be hiked and the currency floated before the drought. (Sri Lanka has to hike rates, tourism recovery will not help end forex crisis: Bellwether)

c) The shift of private sterilized money from foreign banks to state bank DST accounts should be absorbed as mentioned before.

This is because any of the new liquidity injections, and the privately sterilized money shifting from foreign banks to state or other banks can create forex shortages if loaned to the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation or Ceylon Electricity Board, to import fuel.

Though private credit is negative and the risks of foreign shortages, re-emerging are reduced, credit given to state energy utilities hit the forex market direct.It is also not clear whether there will be any central bank profit transfers this year. In 2022 NFA was negative, but there are profits from domestic assets which if transferred as printed money can create forex shortages as they are used by the recipients.

That is why this column has advocated in the past that profit transfers be made in US dollars in the first instance and be done with it.Sri Lanka has not yet got the IMF program, therefore confidence is low and any excess liquidity can undermine the very fragile peg.

Though there has been net excess liquidity in the market for a few days, some banks were still short by 132 billion rupees.

The central bank is caught between a peg and hard a place, with a clamour by businesses to bring down rates.In past crises, rates have started to come down from about two to three months after the currency is successfully floated, private credit turns negative and budget deficits begin to narrow .

But there has been no successful float to create credibility of the exchange rate in the market, the IMF deal and the attendant inflows that accompany it are yet to come.

Therefore, despite private credit being negative, due to problems in the CEB in particular and generally the budget, caution has to be exercise in liquidity injections and it will be a prudent strategy to maintain a short overall of at least 50 billion rupees.

After the IMF program comes, or even before that if there is a successful float and re-pegging, the central bank should consider abandoning the floor repo rate.Many East Asian central banks do that and it helps economies recover faster.

The recent blocking of access to the repo window is a similar strategy, but is fraught some risks at the moment because the new liquidity is not coming from an acquisition of foreign assets but from domestic assets.

The central bank could also consider rolling over Treasuries at par through a legal change until they are sold down to re-build reserves after the IMF program comes. This will reduce the government interest bill and eliminate any risks from a single day profit transfer.

Having said that IMF programs are no solution to a trigger-happy pegged bank that injects liquidity through open market operations.

The State Bank of Pakistan is melting now within an IMF program. Sri Lanka had currency problems in both 2011 and 2018 within IMF programs which were temporarily suspended as liquidity injections were made amid high domestic credit which led to missed foreign reserve targets.Liquidity shortages lose their value beyond a certain point, so the recent injections may not be harmful.However care should be taken never to go to back to excess liquidity conditions except through net foreign asset acquisitions.



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Opinion

U.S. foreign policy double standards and Iran’s Iron theocracy

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The world’s most theatrical stage

Welcome to the Grand Circus

If global geopolitics were a TV show, it would be cancelled after the first season for being too unbelievable. Consider the plot: the world’s largest arms exporter lectures others about peace; a government that executed over 500 people in a single year tells its citizens it governs by divine law; and international bodies created to enforce rules seem to apply those rules with remarkable … flexibility. Welcome to the real world of international relations, where the rules are made up and the principles don’t matter.

This analysis examines two of the most consequential actors shaping global instability today: the United States of America, a democracy that can’t quite decide whether it believes in democracy, and the Islamic Republic of Iran, a theocracy that has perfected the art of punishing its own people for simply existing.

Episode I: The United States, ‘Do as I Say, Not as I Do’

The Democracy Export Business

The United States has, for decades, positioned itself as the global guardian of democracy, freedom, and human rights. It is a noble brand. The marketing budget alone, in the form of military expenditure at $886 billion in 2023, is staggering. And yet, the product being sold and the product being delivered have often been … different things.

The CIA-backed coup of 1953, codenamed Operation Ajax, removed Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh and reinstated the autocratic Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, primarily to protect Anglo-American oil interests.

Nuclear Exceptionalism: The World’s Worst-Kept Secret

The United States currently holds approximately 5,044–5,177 nuclear warheads (depending on the source and year), while Russia being the largest with a stockpile estimated at approximately 5,580 warheads. yet it leads international campaigns demanding that other nations not develop nuclear weapons. This is a bit like the world’s most heavily armed person standing at the door of a gun shop, telling customers they cannot purchase firearms.

Furthermore, Israel is widely believed to possess 80–90 nuclear warheads. The United States has never imposed sanctions on Israel for this. India and Pakistan, both outside the NPT, were rewarded with nuclear cooperation deals after the tested nuclear weapons.

The Saudi Arabia Paradox

Perhaps, no relationship illustrates U.S. foreign policy hypocrisy more vividly than Washington’s alliance with Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom is an absolute monarchy with no elections, no free press, where women were legally barred from driving until 2018, and where the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, carried out, according to U.S. intelligence, on orders from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, resulted in … arms sales continuing and diplomatic ties intact.

The United States sold Saudi Arabia over $37 billion in arms between 2015 and 2020, weapons used in a Yemen war that the United Nations described as one of the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophes. Yet the U.S. simultaneously held press conferences about human rights. The cognitive dissonance is not a bug. It is the feature.

Iraq: The Weapons of Mass Distraction

In 2003, the United States invaded Iraq on the basis of alleged weapons of mass destruction (WMD) that did not exist. The invasion resulted in an estimated 150,000–1,000,000 Iraqi civilian deaths depending on methodology, the displacement of millions, the destabilization of an entire region, and the rise of the Islamic State, none of which appeared in the original brochure. The officials responsible for this foreign policy catastrophe faced no international tribunal. No sanctions were imposed on the United States. Several architects of the war are today respected media commentators.

Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC), an institution the United States has never ratified, is expected to hold others to account for far lesser offenses. As of 2024, the U.S. has actively sanctioned ICC officials who attempted to investigate American personnel for potential war crimes in Afghanistan.

Episode II: Iran, The People’s Nightmare

Iran’s political system is built on the concept of Velayat-e Faqih, the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist, a political-theological doctrine holding that a senior Islamic cleric should govern society. In practice, this means that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, unelected by the general public, holds veto power over all branches of government, controls the military, the judiciary, state media, and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The elected president, whether ‘moderate’ or ‘hardliner’, operates within a system where real power resides with the Supreme Leader and an unelected Guardian Council that vets all candidates and can disqualify anyone it deems insufficiently Islamic. In the 2021 presidential election, the Guardian Council disqualified over 590 candidates out of 592 who applied. The word ‘election’ is being used loosely here.

Women’s Rights: A Systematic Dismantling

Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iranian women have endured one of the most comprehensive rollbacks of rights in modern history. Within weeks of the revolution, mandatory hijab laws were imposed, women were barred from serving as judges, and the minimum marriage age for girls was reduced to 9 years (later revised to 13 in 1982). This was not incidental policy; it was ideological architecture.

Today, Iranian women face legal discrimination across virtually every domain. Under the Iranian Civil Code, a woman’s testimony in court counts as half that of a man’s. Women cannot travel abroad without the written permission of their husband or male guardian. Married women cannot work without spousal consent in many circumstances. The diyeh (blood money) for a woman’s life is legally valued at half that of a man.

In September 2022, 22-year-old Mahsa (Zhina) Amini died in the custody of Iran’s Morality Police, after being arrested for allegedly wearing her hijab improperly. Her death triggered the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising, one of the largest protest movements in Iranian history. The government’s response was to kill over 500 protesters, arrest more than 19,000, and execute at least four people in connection with the protests by early 2023.

The IRGC and State-Sponsored Repression

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a military-economic-political entity unlike any other in the region. It controls an estimated 20–40% of Iran’s economy through businesses, construction contracts, and import monopolies. It commands proxy militias across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. And it suppresses domestic dissent with a ruthlessness that has drawn consistent condemnation from United Nations human rights bodies.

Amnesty International’s 2022-2023 annual report documented the IRGC and security forces using live ammunition, birdshot, and metal pellets against protesters, deliberately targeting eyes, resulting in hundreds being blinded. The UN Special Rapporteur on Iran documented ‘serious, widespread and systematic human rights violations’ constituting potential crimes against humanity.

Episode III: Where the Two Hypocrisies Meet

The relationship between the United States and Iran is, in many ways, a story of two entities who deserve each other in the sense that the behavUior of each government has fed the domestic narrative of the other for decades.

Washington uses Iran as justification for its military presence in the Gulf, its arms sales to autocratic Gulf states, and its general posture as indispensable regional hegemon. Tehran uses American hostility and sanctions as justification for economic failure, political repression, and nuclear advancement. Both governments’ hard-liners need each other to remain in power.

The Iranian people, 85 million of them, majority under 35, highly educated, and overwhelmingly wanting engagement with the world, are trapped between a government that treats them as subjects and an international sanctions regime that punishes them for their government’s choices. The American people, meanwhile, continue paying for a foreign policy architecture that serves arms manufacturers, defense contractors, and geopolitical abstractions more than it serves democratic values or human security.

Some Uncomfortable Truths

The United States is not the villain of every story, nor is Iran irredeemably authoritarian in the hearts of its people. What is consistent, and what this analysis has documented, is that both governments operate by standards they refuse to apply to themselves.

Tehran’s theocratic governance has failed its population economically, politically, and most visibly in its treatment of women and dissidents. The Woman, Life, Freedom movement showed the world what Iranian society wants. The government’s violent response showed the world what the Islamic Republic fears.

The lesson, uncomfortable as it is, is that powerful states, whether wielding aircraft carriers or theology, tend to exempt themselves from the rules they want others to follow. The only antidote is an informed public that refuses to accept these double standards as the natural order of things. Read critically. Follow the money. And remember: when a government tells you it acts in the name of God or democracy.

(The writer, a senior Chartered Accountant and professional banker, is Professor at SLIIT, Malabe. The views and opinions expressed in this article are personal.)

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Opinion

SLC Grants to clubs and associations under scrutiny

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The scale and manner of grant distributions underscore the urgent need to rectify the weaknesses identified by the Auditor General. Remarkably, the accounts for the years 2024 and 2025 are still not published and only the 2023 accounts are available for public scrutiny.

Grants to clubs and associations increased from LKR 1.30 billion in the prior year to LKR 2.46 billion in 2023, representing an escalation of over LKR 1.15 billion year-on-year. These grants were distributed among 36 recipient clubs and associations, with individual allocations ranging from approximately LKR 1.5 million to almost LKR 300 million. Such wide variation and substantial growth warrant clear public disclosure of the allocation framework, the approval processes, and the beneficiary criteria.

While it is understandable that higher profitability enables greater financial support to clubs, the absence of a transparent, rule-based grant policy gives rise to governance concerns, and unless properly explained, leaves room for malicious or unfounded allegations that grant allocations may be used to influence voting behaviour or entrench existing officials. Robust disclosure and effective oversight are therefore essential to safeguard institutional credibility. The precise immediate need for high funding and their monitoring processes need to be divulged.

A case in point is Colombo Cricket Club (CCC), which received LKR 279,531,827 in 2023, making it the highest individual club recipient. As disclosed under the related-party notes to the financial statements, the President of Sri Lanka Cricket is also the President of Colombo Cricket Club, resulting in this transaction being classified as a related-party transaction.

In contrast to several grant recipient entities reporting profits, Sri Lanka Cricket recorded a deficit of approximately Rs. 2 billion in its Statement of Financial Performance for 2023.

It is also noteworthy from the cash flow statement that cash and fund balances declined sharply, from approximately LKR 10.8 billion in the previous year to around LKR 5.6 billion in 2023, representing a significant depletion of liquid resources within a single financial year.

A more meaningful and complete evaluation of these developments—particularly the position of funds available as at 31 December 2024 and 31 December 2025—will only be possible once the financial statements for 2024 and 2025 are released and subjected to public scrutiny.

A cricket enthusiast – Moratuwa

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Opinion

Microfinance and Credit Regulatory Authority Act 2026 fails all affacted communities

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A protest against exploitation by microfinance companies

The Microfinance and Credit Regulatory Authority Bill was passed into law by the Parliament of Sri Lanka on 4 March. According to Deputy Minister of Finance and Planning Dr. Anil Jayantha, the main object of the Act is to establish an Authority to “license and supervise the under-regulated microfinance and moneylending sector, aiming to protect borrowers from exploitation and ensure financial stability”.

However, the Yukthi Collective is saddened and disappointed that a government which pledged to take “measures to alleviate the burden of predatory microfinance loans with high interest rates on women” (NPP Manifesto, 2024: Page no. 44), will now add to their unbearable weight.

The new Act, as virtually all legislation enacted by Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s government, is a legacy of the anti-working class Ranil Wickremesinghe regime. It evades the root causes of the microfinance trap, and ignores debt justice for women borrowers.

It fails in understanding the connections between household debt and public debt. The vicious cycle of national debt is sustained by lack of growth in economic activity because of poor access to affordable credit.

It fails to make equal representation of women mandatory in the new Authority. If representatives of women borrowers and their self-run organisations are not present in the regulatory body, how will its members know of their lived experiences and make decisions that value women’s unpaid and paid contributions to sustaining life?

System Change

Millions of indebted households voted for the NPP with hope and expectation of ‘system change’. But instead of honouring its manifesto promise to them, the government has let them down in the law-making process; as well as the focus and substance of the new Act.

It is appalling that NPP parliamentarians, including some of its women members, appear not to have read and understood the bill they enacted into law, nor spoke to the rural credit community providers in their electorates for their views.

Predatory lending exists in the formal and informal sectors. Within this ecosystem, the Act fails to understand, identify, and prohibit predatory lending and recovery practices. It is a cover for the Central Bank’s failure to properly regulate ‘Licensed Finance Companies’ in the interests of citizens.

The biggest offenders are the big finance companies, in which some parliamentarians are deposit-holders. Therefore, some lawmakers benefit from excess profitmaking through exploitative practices, at the expense of poor mostly rural women.

Where law reform should discipline the bullies and thugs in credit delivery, it will instead wipe out, through over-regulation, community-based and managed lenders such as death donation societies, farmer associations, and urban and rural women’s collectives, which have been a lifeline for vulnerable working-class women and a defence from harmful recovery practices.

Structural Adjustment Programmes

The motivation for this new law are the market- and capital- friendly structural reforms insisted by International Financial Institutions; not the concerns and needs of those at the mercy of predatory lenders.

From the Microfinance Act 2016, to the 2023 version of the Ranil Wickremesinghe regime, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) through its loans has been a promoter of these regressive reforms.

The 2026 Act, with some changes suggested by the Supreme Court in 2024 and hardly any of the changes demanded by affected communities, has been moved forward by the NPP government in line with ADB loan conditionalities.

The path of de-regulation for banking, finance, trade, and investment; and over-regulation of poor people’s savings and credit institutions, smacks of the bias to big capital, which the NPP in opposition once criticised.

Reforms needed

The financial and banking reforms we want to see are to make credit from state banks and public funds accessible and affordable to women producers in agriculture and micro and small business operators; with decent wages and social protection for workers; that improve household opportunity for a dignified livelihood and decent lives.

Yukthi is a forum supporting working people’s movements and people’s struggles for democracy and justice in Sri Lanka.

by Yukthi Collective

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