Opinion
CEB’s LTGEP the best strategy
The Island has carried many pieces on the electricity generation sector, mostly by just one writer, almost all them hostile to the CEB’s Long Term Generation Expansion Programme (LTGEP), which lays out a 10 or sometimes 20-year rolling plan for the addition of new generators to the system. However, I have not seen anything supporting the plan published – sorry if I have missed anything though I am a daily reader of your broadsheet. Let me straightaway say this: The LTGEP is the best strategy for this country to follow at this time. It is based on the upto-date load forecasts, plant cost, construction times and the technology data available, time each the plan is revised – that is once or twice a year. It is compiled by competent professionals in planning not by loose tongued armatures. It is derived by feeding the best data into internationally reputed system expansion algorithms – when last I visited, about five years ago, it was WASP. I am 100% independent and have no connection nor will I get any benefit from this intervention. I have no financial interest nor do I have commercial contact with any fuel or equipment supplier. This may not be the case with all commentators and columnists.
Let me lay to rest some absurdities that have recently been said. I ask only for paragraphs not full-page space.
(a) It is not true that one cannot plan long-term because data changes over time. This is exactly why one has a “rolling-plan” that is revised at regular intervals. The best information is used at each stage. Every company and every intelligent organisation, does the same.
(b) It is in fact essential to plan long-term because these are huge projects and finances have to be negotiated, sites and power plant planned and numerous complications ironed out. Don’t we in Sri Lanka know all about the last point?
(c) It is said LTGEP is in contradiction with President Gotabaya’s “Vistas . . . etc” document. If that is true, too bad for that document. It should be revised.
(d) An absurd claim is made by the article authors that I referred to previously, and in “Vistas” that 80% of electrical energy should be from renewable sources by 2030. Renewables are two-fold Large-Hydro (LH) and Renewable-Non-Large-Hydro (RNLH) consisting of Wind, Solar and Bio-mass (W, S & Bm) and also including mini-hydro (MH).
(e) From the latest available (2017) data (mentally excluding 2020, a very odd year) the current status, I estimate, is that W, S & Bm contribute 0.6 tera-watt hours (TWh) or 3.5% of current energy. Only a looney will hallucinate about raising this by a factor of ten to 6.0 TWh by 2030, to achieve 17.5% (5×3.5) of the then demand, assuming that the by-then generation has doubled.
Thank you for allowing me a few words contradicting widely prevalent popular myths.
Professor Kumar David
Retired Dean Engineering
(HK Polytechnic University)
and former Fellow IEEE and IEE
Opinion
Sally Hulugalle
Sally Hulugalle was a vibrant presence, and I am only sorry that I got to know her only over the last fifteen years or so. This was because her husband, Arjuna Hulugalle, who was distantly connected to my family through a Kurunegala link, got in touch with me in the aftermath of the war, for he was involved in various projects to help the people of the north.
I was able to get for his very worthy initiatives a lot of support, all on a small scale, from the Japanese government, through their hyper-active Deputy Ambassador, Mr Ishizuka, with whom I had bonded well from the time I took over the Peace Secretariat.
I would visit Arjuna at his house, and there I met his wife Sally, the daughter of a Civil Servant whose distinguished children included Barbara Sansoni. Sally was dedicated to social service, and was deeply concerned about the plight of women and children who suffered from neglect.
Having seen the appalling conditions at Mulleriyawa, where many women were incarcerated arbitrarily, given abuse of the Vagrants’ Ordinance, she set up NEST along with my old friend Kamini de Soysa. It worked at what is called the half way house for women meant to be released, but who rarely were, because they had nothing to go to. NEST gave them occupational therapy which provided a purpose in lives that were otherwise empty.
NEST also set up centres round the country which provided support to women and children in need. There were four of these when I first found out about them, though the one in Galle had to close. The other three, in Hendala and Dumbara and Kahatagasdigiliya, continue to provide yeoman service, the first two in houses belonging to NEST, the one in Dumbara having been set up after Sally received a cash prize from Norway for her work. Using what was given to her personally for those less fortunate was second nature to her.
Sally understood, in a way many of those in government responsible for those who fall through the net do not, the need for counseling, for listening to people in need, and for providing often very little things that made a substantial difference to their lives. She participated readily in the committees I set up when I was Adviser on Reconciliation to look into the plight of women and children, our recommendations extending to the rest of the country too, for I realized that government had not tried to coordinate the work of social service officials at divisional levels, and a few simple guidelines would have worked wonders.
But Mahinda Rajapaksa was not really interested in my advice and, though we had a thoughtful Ministry Secretary, Eric Illapayarachchi, he had to work with a neanderthal Minister who could not care less for the deprived. I could only think it sheer wickedness, that those in authority would not work swiftly to get rid of the Vagrants Ordinance, an archaic British law, which I was told was the only way prostitution could be stopped. That other women were swept into the net, and the way to stop prostitution was to make it illegal, not take in anyone on suspicion, were concepts beyond them.
I had another chance to make a difference when, as Chairman of the Tertiary and Vocational Education Commission, I set up a Health Sector Council. That did good work, under Dr Narme Wickremesinghe, but when I was sacked it, though it did much for nursing and pharmacology, lost interest in the counseling component of its brief, and Sally and her great friend Kusala Wettasinghe ceased to go to meetings. And since I lost my position on the National Education Commission, the efforts I had been making through the Sub-Committee on General Education to develop counseling in schools also came to naught.
But when I reflect on the failure of these efforts, I think too of the great work done by private initiatives, and how the intensity of Sally’s commitment has made such a difference to so many. This year, seeing the work of the centres at Hendala and at Kahatagasdigiliya, and the devotion of the staff to her memory, I was struck again by the way she transformed her passion for social welfare into practical support for so many. She will be greatly missed by hundreds outside the charmed circle in which she was born.
Rajiva Wijesinha
Opinion
Blueprint for economic empowerment in Sri Lanka’s gig economy
“Creating 300,000 Online Jobs:
By Dammike Kobbekaduwe,
FIPM (SL), Member-CIPM-SL, MBA(HRM)
Objectives of the Article
Assess
the viability and economic impact of creating 300,000 online jobs in Sri Lanka.
Present
a bankable business plan for investment support from financial institutions.
Outline
a detailed cost-benefit analysis, supported by viability ratios for funding eligibility.
Establish
a sustainable financial and operational model for building a skilled gig workforce.
Sri Lanka’s gig economy presents a compelling solution for youth employment, targeting 300,000 online jobs for young people, particularly those who completed GCE OL. With a goal of generating substantial monthly income streams, this project seeks to address the country’s economic challenges and stimulate growth through digital employment. While a monthly earning a realistic starting income of $300–$500 is achievable and scalable, infusing approximately $50 million monthly into the economy once the workforce reaches full capacity.
To ensure financial viability and attract investment, we conduct a comprehensive economic analysis. This document highlights key investment metrics, including viability ratios, projected cash flow, and a cost-benefit breakdown to support the proposal as a bankable doEconomic Analysis and Viability
This project’s financial feasibility and appeal for funding rely on assessing profitability and return potential. Calculations are based on the cost of infrastructure, worker setup costs, and recurring expenses.
1. Capital and Operational Costs
Capital Setup Per Worker
Laptop (16GB RAM):
LKR 300,000 (one-time purchase)
Data Plan:
LKR 8,000 per month
Electricity:
LKR 8,000 per month (solar option as a long-term cost-saving measure)
Annual Cost Per Worker
One-time Equipment Cost:
LKR 300,000
Recurring Monthly Costs:
LKR 192,000 (LKR 16,000 x 12)
Total Yearly Cost Per Worker
Year 1:
LKR 492,000
Year 2+ (Excluding Laptop):
LKR 192,000 per year
Total Initial Investment for 300,000 Workers
Laptops:
LKR 90 billion
Year 1 Recurring Costs:
LKR 57.6 billion
Initial Year Investment Requirement:
LKR 147.6 billion
2. Projected Revenue and Cash Injection
A monthly earning potential of $300–$500 per worker in Sri Lanka’s gig market (based on average entry-level online job earnings globally) provides realistic targets for cash generation.
Monthly Cash Injection at Full Capacity
Minimum Revenue Goal (300,000 workers at $300):
$90 million/month
Maximum Revenue Goal (300,000 workers at $500):
$150 million/month
Expected Economic Contribution:
$50 million/month as a sustainable average.
3. Viability Ratios and Business Metrics
To validate the project’s financial health, banks and investors can consider the following key metrics:
A. Return on Investment (ROI)
The ROI assesses the profitability relative to costs.
See FIG 1
For Year 1 (Initial setup + recurring costs):
Total Annual Revenue:
$90 million * 12 months * 300,000 = LKR 324 billion (at $300/month per worker) See FIG 2
Interpretation:
A 119.5% ROI suggests strong profitability, with returns significantly outpacing the initial investment within the first year, making it attractive for lenders and investors.
B. Break-even Point (BEP)
The BEP indicates when revenue will cover initial costs.
See FIG 3
For a $50 million monthly injection:
Interpretation: A break-even within three months reflects a rapid recovery period, underscoring the project’s viability. See FIG 4
C. Debt-Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR)
To ensure sufficient earnings to cover debt obligations, DSCR is critical for bank funding. See FIG 5
Assuming monthly operating income of LKR 3.24 billion and an estimated debt service of LKR 1.5 billion:
Interpretation:
With a DSCR above 2, the project is well-positioned for loan approval, demonstrating strong debt repayment capacity. See FIG 6
Implementation Plan for the National Gig Workforce
Phase 1: Training and Equipment Setup
Digital Literacy Programs:
Partner with local institutions to offer foundational training.
Laptop Financing:
Government-backed financing for laptops and solar installations for sustainable power solutions.
Phase 2: Skill Development and Placement
Skill Development Centers:
Partner with international e-learning platforms and host training boot camps.
Placement Programs:
Establish online job-matching platforms to connect workers with international clients.
Phase 3: Scaling and Economic Integration
Tax Incentives:
Offer tax breaks to local businesses hiring from the gig workforce.
Freelancer Support Network:
Create a national freelancer association for continued training and mentorship.
Resources Required For Workers:
Training:
Digital and language skills to enter global markets.
Equipment:
Laptops with financing options.
Connectivity:
Affordable data plans or subsidies.
For Stakeholders:
Government Initiatives:
Funding for training and incentives.
Private-Sector Partnerships: Skill development programs and job portals.
Financial Institutions: Loan products tailored for workers’ needs.
Conclusion
This plan offers a scalable solution to Sri Lanka’s unemployment crisis, particularly for young people with limited formal education. By creating 300,000 online jobs and targeting a monthly cash inflow of $50 million, the initiative supports economic resilience while empowering youth with valuable skills. A financial model based on solid viability ratios makes this project attractive to lenders, ensuring a rapid return on investment and sustainable growth.
References
International Labour Organization. (2023). The Gig Economy: Opportunities and Challenges for Youth Employment in Developing Economies. Available at: https://www.ilo.org/
Upwork. (2023). Freelancer Earnings and Trends Report. Available at: https://www.upwork.com/research
World Bank. (2022). Digital Jobs and Economic Growth:
A Guide for Developing Nations. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications.
Fiverr. (2023). Freelancer Earnings and Skill Development:
A Global Perspective. Available at: https://www.fiverr.com/research
Coursera. (2023). Skill Trends in the Digital Economy:
A Report on Online Education in Emerging Markets. Available at: https://www.coursera.com/research
Sri Lanka Department of Census and Statistics. (2023). Youth Unemployment and Educational Attainment: Annual Report.
Opinion
Hospitals and corruption
On December 2, in The Island Cassandra CRY saw the state of hospitals and corruption as separate issues, but I believe they are deeply interconnected. The dismal condition of hospitals is a direct consequence of systemic corruption. Over the past several decades, trade unions, driven by self-interest, have focused solely on advocating for their members’ rights, often at the expense of their responsibilities. This trend has affected not only hospitals but also other government and some private sector institutions.
Currently, the country is led by a political party that has heavily relied on its trade unions for promotion and political gain. Given this close relationship, restoring order should be relatively straightforward. A simple directive from the relevant ministers to their allied union leaders could be enough to initiate meaningful reforms.
S K Muthukumara
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