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CBSL maintains policy interest rates at current levels

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Extracts of Monetary Policy Review: No.07 – Oct. 2021

The Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on 13 October 2021, decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 5.00 per cent and 6.00 per cent, respectively. The Board arrived at this decision after carefully considering the macroeconomic conditions and expected developments on the domestic and global fronts. The Board reiterated its commitment to maintaining inflation at the targeted levels over the medium term with appropriate measures, while supporting the economy to reach its potential in the period ahead.

The global economic recovery is expected to continue despite large disparities across countries. As per the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released on 12 October 2021, the global economy is projected to grow by 5.9 per cent in 2021 and 4.9 per cent in 2022. Economic prospects remain divergent across countries, mainly due to disparities in access to COVID-19 vaccines and policy support. Consumer price inflation in most countries increased significantly, reflecting the impact of pandemic related supply-demand mismatches and the surge in commodity prices, compared to their low base from a year ago.

The Sri Lankan economy is making headway, despite the pandemic related disruptions As per the estimates of the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), the Sri Lankan economy witnessed a strong recovery during the second quarter of 2021, recording a real growth of 12.3 per cent, year-on-year, following the growth of 4.3 per cent, year-on-year, in the first quarter of 2021. With the gradual return to normalcy after phasing out the COVID-19 related lockdown measures, alongside the successful rolling out of the COVID-19 vaccination programme and growth supportive policy measures, the momentum of economic activity is expected to sustain in the period ahead. Available indicators and projections suggest that the real economy would grow by around 5 per cent in 2021, and gradually traverse to a high and sustained growth trajectory over the medium term, following near-term stabilisation measures that are being put in place by the Government and the Central Bank. The planned coordinated efforts by the Government and the Central Bank are expected to strengthen the external sector in the period ahead Earnings from exports marked a notable improvement and recorded over US dollars 1 billion for the third consecutive month in August 2021. Expenditure on imports has also increased, partly reflecting the surge in global commodity prices, resulting in an expansion in the trade deficit during the eight months ending August 2021, over the corresponding period of last year. Outlook for tourism improved

with the easing of travel restrictions globally and the successful vaccination drive domestically. Despite the moderation of workers’ remittances observed in recent months, a rebound is expected in the period ahead with the improved growth outlook for major foreign employment source countries and greater stability in the domestic foreign exchange market. The realisation of foreign investments in the real sector and the timely adoption of remedial measures by the Central Bank as enunciated in ‘The Six-month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic and Financial System Stability’ are gradually easing pressures in the domestic foreign exchange market. Furthermore, the Central Bank continued to intervene in the foreign exchange market to provide liquidity for essential imports, including fuel. The depreciation of the Sri Lankan rupee against the US dollar is recorded at 6.8 per cent thus far in 2021. The Sri Lankan rupee remains largely undervalued as reflected by the real effective exchange rate (REER) indices. In the meantime, gross official reserves were estimated at US dollars 2.6 billion by end September 2021. This, however, does not include the bilateral currency swap facility with the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) of CNY 10 billion (equivalent to approximately US dollars 1.5 billion). Gross official reserves are expected to improve with the measures that are being pursued by the Government and the Central Bank to attract fresh foreign exchange inflows, as outlined in the Six-month Road Map, thereby reinforcing the stability of the external sector in the period ahead. Market interest rates have adjusted upwards in response to the tightening of monetary and liquidity conditions, while credit and monetary expansion remained elevated In response to the tightening of monetary policy in August 2021, most market deposit and lending rates have adjusted upwards. Further, yields on government securities witnessed a sharp upward adjustment with the removal of maximum yield rates for acceptance at primary auctions. Following these upward adjustments, greater stability is expected in market interest rates in the period ahead. Reflecting the increased demand for credit amidst the low interest rate environment, credit extended to the private sector expanded as envisaged during the eight months ending August 2021. The momentum of credit expansion is expected to continue during the remainder of the year, with the recovery in economic activity and continued efforts to channel credit flows to productive and needy sectors of the economy.

Meanwhile, credit obtained by the public sector from the banking system, particularly net credit to the Government, also increased notably during the eight months ending August 2021. With increased domestic credit, the growth of broad money (M2b) continued to remain elevated. Some inflationary pressures are observed, particularly due to emerging global price developments Inflation accelerated in recent months due to high food inflation and some acceleration in non-food inflation. The surge in global commodity prices prompted the Government to remove maximum retail prices on several essential commodities. Along with resultant upward adjustments in other market prices, this is likely to cause headline inflation to deviate somewhat from the targeted levels in the near term. While such supply side developments in the near term do not warrant monetary policy tightening, measures already taken by the Central Bank in relation to interest rates and market liquidity would help stabilise demand pressures over the medium term.



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NDB Bank hosts Investor and Analysts Earnings Call on FY 2024 financial results

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(Pictured L to R) Himali Nandika – Chief Manager Finance; Alex Perera - VP, CRO; K.V. Vinoj - DCEO; Kelum Edirisinghe - Director/CEO; Sanjaya Perera - SVP, Personal Banking & Customer Experience; Damitha Samaranayake – VP Treasury; Kumudari Peiris – Senior Manager Finance

National Development Bank PLC (NDB) conducted its Investor and Analysts Earnings Call on 12th of March, following the release of the financial results and annual report for the full year ended December 31, 2024.

The session, led by Kelum Edirisinghe, Director and Chief Executive Officer of NDB Bank, along with the bank’s senior management team, was held virtually via Zoom. During the call, the CEO delivered a comprehensive presentation on the bank’s financial performance for FY 2024, its strategic direction, and key operational highlights. This was followed by an interactive Q&A session, providing investors and analysts with valuable insights into the bank’s growth trajectory and future outlook.

The forum attracted a diverse group of stakeholders, including research analysts, stockbrokers, fund managers, and investors. Organized by NDB’s Investor Relations Team, the session reinforced the bank’s commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement. Since 2014, NDB has consistently hosted these quarterly and annual earnings calls, demonstrating a longstanding commitment to fostering trust and accountability. Transcripts and recordings of the call will be made available on the bank’s website, ensuring continued access to key insights.

During the presentation, the CEO highlighted NDB’s strong financial performance in 2024, underpinned by strategic initiatives aimed at optimizing the cost of funds, strengthening portfolio quality, and driving sustainable profitability. The bank’s digital transformation efforts, coupled with a focus on enhancing transactional and fee-based income, played a pivotal role in navigating macroeconomic challenges and positioning NDB for long-term growth. The Q&A session that followed saw insightful discussions on key topics, including the bank’s loan portfolio quality, CASA base, projected loan growth, sources for loan growth, and expectations on interest rate movements in the economy.

Despite the dynamic economic landscape, NDB remained resilient, leveraging its robust risk management framework and customer-centric approach to maintain stability and deliver value to stakeholders.

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ComBank crowned People’s Private Bank Brand of the Year for 3rd successive year

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Representatives of Commercial Bank led by Deputy General Manager – Human Resources Management Mr Isuru Tillakawardana and Chief Manager Marketing Ms Aparna Jagoda accepting the award on behalf of the Bank.

The Commercial Bank of Ceylon has been voted the ‘People’s Private Banking Services Brand of the Year’ for the third consecutive year at the SLIM Kantar People’s Awards 2025, in a significant validation of the Bank’s status as the most popular private sector bank in the country.

Presented by the Sri Lanka Institute of Marketing (SLIM) and based on research by Kantar, a leading global insights agency, these awards are considered the ultimate testament to consumer-driven recognition in Sri Lanka. They are determined solely by consumer votes rather than a panel of experts, and recognise the brands and personalities that have earned the trust and loyalty of Sri Lankans.

The Bank said this accolade is a testament to the continuing impact of its services in the lives of millions of people, as well as the effectiveness of the Bank’s brand-building efforts and marketing initiatives. The Bank’s continuous engagement with customers, innovative campaigns, and commitment to delivering superior banking experiences have been instrumental in securing this recognition.

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Advancing solar PV integration: A vision for a sustainable energy future

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During the Eng. (Prof.) R. H. Paul Memorial Oration 2025, Prof. Lilantha Samaranayake emphasised the urgent need for advanced solar photovoltaic (PV) integration to create a resilient and sustainable energy future. Speaking on the Future of Renewable Energy, he highlighted projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that forecast global renewable electricity generation will exceed 17,000 TWh by 2030, representing an almost 90% increase from 2023. Solar PV is anticipated to become the leading source of renewable electricity, followed by wind and hydroelectric power.

Sri Lanka has set an ambitious target of achieving 100% renewable energy. Policymakers are working towards a people-centric, equitable, and affordable energy transition. The government also aims to reduce electricity tariffs by 30% within five years, though no specific timeline has been set for net-zero emissions.

Challenges in Solar PV Integration—While renewable energy adoption is increasing, challenges remain. A major issue is grid stability due to solar energy’s intermittent nature. Grid stability refers to the ability of an electrical power grid to maintain a consistent voltage and frequency while balancing electricity supply and demand. One of the main challenges with integrating solar energy into the grid is its intermittent nature, meaning that solar power generation fluctuates depending on sunlight availability. This variability can cause instability in the grid.

Why is Solar Energy Intermittent? Solar panels generate electricity only when exposed to sunlight. At night, there is no generation, requiring alternative power sources. Cloud cover, rain, and seasonal changes affect solar energy output. On cloudy days, solar generation can drop suddenly, causing fluctuations in power supply. Unlike conventional power plants that provide a steady output, solar energy can vary within minutes, making it challenging to maintain a stable power flow.

How Does This Affect Grid Stability? The Electricity grids operate at a specific frequency (e.g., 50 Hz or 60 Hz). A sudden drop in solar power generation can lead to a decrease in frequency, potentially causing power outages. Solar energy injections can cause voltage levels to rise or drop unpredictably, affecting equipment performance and consumer supply quality. Traditional power plants have rotating generators that provide inertia, helping to stabilise the grid. Solar PV systems do not have this natural inertia, making the grid more susceptible to instability.

Prof. Samaranayake explained that Sri Lanka’s current power generation mix, as of November 2024, includes:

27% from hydroelectric power

19.6% from rooftop solar

14.3% from coal

13.6% from oil

5.1% from private oil plants

Smaller contributions from wind, biomass, and other renewable sources

A key concern is the lack of inertia in renewable energy sources. Unlike conventional power plants, solar and wind do not provide inherent grid stability, leading to frequency fluctuations.

Prof. Samaranayake proposed an innovative solution for grid stability: implementing Virtual Inertia using advanced power electronic control systems. This approach mimics the stabilising effect of traditional rotating generators, ensuring a steady frequency supply in the grid.

Other potential solutions include:

Adding rotating machines such as LNG or nuclear power plants

Energy storage systems like pumped storage, flywheels, and large-scale battery systems

Enhancing grid regulations to support the integration of rooftop solar PV systems

The introduction of advanced Virtual Inertia technology is expected to complement regulatory changes that relax statutory voltage limits and improve the quality of electricity supply.

Another controversial yet forward-looking strategy discussed was the possibility of nuclear energy. According to sources from the Sri Lanka Atomic Energy Board (SLAEB), the country’s first nuclear power plant, leveraging integral pressurized water reactor (iPWR) technology, could be operational by 2032. Given Sri Lanka’s proximity to India, which already operates nuclear plants, proponents argue that nuclear energy could be a viable option for stabilizing the power grid.

Prof. Samaranayake stressed the need for a holistic approach, as solar PV continues to be vital to Sri Lanka’s energy future. This involves investing in energy storage, enhancing grid infrastructure, and enacting regulatory reforms. He called on policymakers, engineers, and the public to collaborate in creating a more sustainable and resilient energy landscape.

The Eng. (Prof.) R. H. Paul Memorial Oration reminds us of engineering and innovation’s critical role in tackling global energy challenges. With strategic planning and technological advancements, Sri Lanka can pave the way for a cleaner, more sustainable future.

The oration paid tribute to the late Prof. R. H. Paul, a distinguished academic and former Dean of the Faculty of Engineering, University of Peradeniya, who made significant contributions to electrical and electronic engineering in Sri Lanka. His legacy continues to inspire advancements in the energy sector.

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