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CBSL continues accommodative monetary policy stance

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Monetary Policy Review: October 2020

The Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on 21 October 2020, decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 4.50 per cent and 5.50 per cent, respectively, thereby continuing the prevailing accommodative monetary policy stance.

The Board noted the decline in overall market lending rates, following the unprecedented monetary easing measures taken by the Central Bank thus far during the year, and expects the broadbased downward adjustment in market lending rates to continue, thereby ensuring affordable credit flows to productive sectors of the economy in the prevailing low inflation environment.

Global monetary policy continues to remain accommodative as global growth prospects remain bleak with the resurgence of COVID-19 in many parts of the world

The global economy, as per the World Economic Outlook (WEO) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released in October 2020, is projected to contract by 4.4 per cent in 2020. The outlook for growth in 2020 is less severe than the IMF’s previous forecast, supported by large scale policy stimuli implemented worldwide. However, the recent surge in COVID-19 cases globally has prompted several countries to reimpose lockdowns, which may dampen global growth prospects.

Against this background, most central banks across the globe are expected to continue their accommodative monetary policy stance in the foreseeable future.

The Sri Lankan economy is expected to move along a faster recovery path, despite the latest surge in COVID-19 cases locally that could hamper near term growth prospects.

The release of GDP estimates for the second quarter of 2020 by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) has been delayed. It is likely that the second quarter of 2020 has recorded a greater contraction than in the first quarter, followed by a recovery in the third quarter of the year. However, as per the DCS, the unemployment rate, which was estimated at 5.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2020, has declined to 5.4 per cent in the second quarter. The level of employment has also remained broadly unchanged in the second quarter compared to the large decline reported for the first quarter. These suggest that economic activity has remained without much deterioration in the second quarter. Other developments observed in leading indicators and high frequency data since the relaxation of the countrywide lockdown measures suggest that Sri Lanka is on a path towards economic revival. The unexpected COVID-19 cluster that has emerged recently could somewhat affect this momentum in the near term, but the expeditious measures that are being taken by the government to contain the spread could limit this impact.

External sector remains resilient with improved liquidity in the foreign exchange market

Better than expected outcomes in the external sector, as reflected by the incoming data, are indicative of the resilience of the external sector amidst growing worldwide uncertainties triggered by the outbreak of COVID-19. Alongside the improvement in earnings from merchandise exports, restrictions imposed on the importation of non-essential goods and low crude oil prices helped narrow the trade deficit substantially during the nine months ending September 2020. Services exports, excluding the tourism sector, continued to record a healthy growth led by computer and logistic services related activities. Workers’ remittances continued to record a notable acceleration since June 2020. In the meantime, Sri Lanka successfully settled the International Sovereign Bond (ISB) of US dollars 1 billion matured in early October 2020, continuing the unblemished record on debt servicing. The exchange rate remained stable and the depreciation of the Sri Lankan rupee against the US dollar is limited to 1.5 per cent thus far during the year. In this background, the Central Bank continued to purchase a sizeable volume of foreign exchange from the domestic market. Gross official reserves were estimated at US dollars 6.7 billion at end September 2020, which provided an import cover of 4.6 months.

Inflation is expected to remain within the desired range

Headline inflation, based on the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI), decelerated in September 2020, on a year-on-year basis, while there was some acceleration in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) based headline inflation due to the rise in food prices. Meanwhile, core inflation based on both CCPI and NCPI continued to remain low, reflecting subdued demand conditions. The recent increase in food prices is expected to be short-lived supported by domestic supply side developments as well as the recent reduction in prices of several essential goods. Accordingly, inflation is expected to remain broadly within the desired range of 4-6 per cent in the near term and over the medium term with appropriate policy measures.

Most market interest rates have declined, reflecting the impact of the measures taken by the Central Bank thus far during the year

In response to the monetary easing measures effected to bring down borrowing costs of businesses and households, both market deposit and lending rates adjusted notably so far during the year. The Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR) declined to historic lows in recent weeks, while new lending rates also adjusted downward in line with the expectations of the Central Bank. The imposition of lending rate caps on selected financial products in August 2020 has also helped bring down the overall lending rates in the market. Further space remains for market lending rates to decline, particularly with the high level of excess liquidity in the money market, which is deposited with the Central Bank at the SDFR of 4.50 per cent at present.

Credit to the private sector picked up notably in August 2020 and the upward trend is expected to continue supported by low interest rates

Following the contractions recorded in the preceding three months, credit disbursed to the private sector expanded notably in August 2020, reflecting the impact of low lending rates as well as concessional credit schemes. The expansion of credit to the private sector is expected to continue in the period ahead, despite the recent rise in COVID-19 infections, which is expected to be short-lived. Meanwhile, the overall domestic credit continued to expand sharply driven by the substantial increase in credit to the public sector. Accordingly, the growth of broad money further accelerated in August 2020.

Policy rates maintained at current levels

In consideration of the current and expected macroeconomic developments highlighted above, the Monetary Board, at its meeting held on 21 October 2020, was of the view that the current accommodative monetary policy stance is appropriate. Accordingly, the Board decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 4.50 per cent and 5.50 per cent, respectively. The Central Bank will continue to monitor domestic and global macroeconomic and financial market developments and take further measures appropriately to ensure that the economy promptly reverts to a sustained high real GDP growth path, while maintaining inflation in the 4-6 per cent range under its flexible inflation targeting framework.



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NDB Bank hosts Investor and Analysts Earnings Call on FY 2024 financial results

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(Pictured L to R) Himali Nandika – Chief Manager Finance; Alex Perera - VP, CRO; K.V. Vinoj - DCEO; Kelum Edirisinghe - Director/CEO; Sanjaya Perera - SVP, Personal Banking & Customer Experience; Damitha Samaranayake – VP Treasury; Kumudari Peiris – Senior Manager Finance

National Development Bank PLC (NDB) conducted its Investor and Analysts Earnings Call on 12th of March, following the release of the financial results and annual report for the full year ended December 31, 2024.

The session, led by Kelum Edirisinghe, Director and Chief Executive Officer of NDB Bank, along with the bank’s senior management team, was held virtually via Zoom. During the call, the CEO delivered a comprehensive presentation on the bank’s financial performance for FY 2024, its strategic direction, and key operational highlights. This was followed by an interactive Q&A session, providing investors and analysts with valuable insights into the bank’s growth trajectory and future outlook.

The forum attracted a diverse group of stakeholders, including research analysts, stockbrokers, fund managers, and investors. Organized by NDB’s Investor Relations Team, the session reinforced the bank’s commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement. Since 2014, NDB has consistently hosted these quarterly and annual earnings calls, demonstrating a longstanding commitment to fostering trust and accountability. Transcripts and recordings of the call will be made available on the bank’s website, ensuring continued access to key insights.

During the presentation, the CEO highlighted NDB’s strong financial performance in 2024, underpinned by strategic initiatives aimed at optimizing the cost of funds, strengthening portfolio quality, and driving sustainable profitability. The bank’s digital transformation efforts, coupled with a focus on enhancing transactional and fee-based income, played a pivotal role in navigating macroeconomic challenges and positioning NDB for long-term growth. The Q&A session that followed saw insightful discussions on key topics, including the bank’s loan portfolio quality, CASA base, projected loan growth, sources for loan growth, and expectations on interest rate movements in the economy.

Despite the dynamic economic landscape, NDB remained resilient, leveraging its robust risk management framework and customer-centric approach to maintain stability and deliver value to stakeholders.

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ComBank crowned People’s Private Bank Brand of the Year for 3rd successive year

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Representatives of Commercial Bank led by Deputy General Manager – Human Resources Management Mr Isuru Tillakawardana and Chief Manager Marketing Ms Aparna Jagoda accepting the award on behalf of the Bank.

The Commercial Bank of Ceylon has been voted the ‘People’s Private Banking Services Brand of the Year’ for the third consecutive year at the SLIM Kantar People’s Awards 2025, in a significant validation of the Bank’s status as the most popular private sector bank in the country.

Presented by the Sri Lanka Institute of Marketing (SLIM) and based on research by Kantar, a leading global insights agency, these awards are considered the ultimate testament to consumer-driven recognition in Sri Lanka. They are determined solely by consumer votes rather than a panel of experts, and recognise the brands and personalities that have earned the trust and loyalty of Sri Lankans.

The Bank said this accolade is a testament to the continuing impact of its services in the lives of millions of people, as well as the effectiveness of the Bank’s brand-building efforts and marketing initiatives. The Bank’s continuous engagement with customers, innovative campaigns, and commitment to delivering superior banking experiences have been instrumental in securing this recognition.

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Advancing solar PV integration: A vision for a sustainable energy future

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During the Eng. (Prof.) R. H. Paul Memorial Oration 2025, Prof. Lilantha Samaranayake emphasised the urgent need for advanced solar photovoltaic (PV) integration to create a resilient and sustainable energy future. Speaking on the Future of Renewable Energy, he highlighted projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that forecast global renewable electricity generation will exceed 17,000 TWh by 2030, representing an almost 90% increase from 2023. Solar PV is anticipated to become the leading source of renewable electricity, followed by wind and hydroelectric power.

Sri Lanka has set an ambitious target of achieving 100% renewable energy. Policymakers are working towards a people-centric, equitable, and affordable energy transition. The government also aims to reduce electricity tariffs by 30% within five years, though no specific timeline has been set for net-zero emissions.

Challenges in Solar PV Integration—While renewable energy adoption is increasing, challenges remain. A major issue is grid stability due to solar energy’s intermittent nature. Grid stability refers to the ability of an electrical power grid to maintain a consistent voltage and frequency while balancing electricity supply and demand. One of the main challenges with integrating solar energy into the grid is its intermittent nature, meaning that solar power generation fluctuates depending on sunlight availability. This variability can cause instability in the grid.

Why is Solar Energy Intermittent? Solar panels generate electricity only when exposed to sunlight. At night, there is no generation, requiring alternative power sources. Cloud cover, rain, and seasonal changes affect solar energy output. On cloudy days, solar generation can drop suddenly, causing fluctuations in power supply. Unlike conventional power plants that provide a steady output, solar energy can vary within minutes, making it challenging to maintain a stable power flow.

How Does This Affect Grid Stability? The Electricity grids operate at a specific frequency (e.g., 50 Hz or 60 Hz). A sudden drop in solar power generation can lead to a decrease in frequency, potentially causing power outages. Solar energy injections can cause voltage levels to rise or drop unpredictably, affecting equipment performance and consumer supply quality. Traditional power plants have rotating generators that provide inertia, helping to stabilise the grid. Solar PV systems do not have this natural inertia, making the grid more susceptible to instability.

Prof. Samaranayake explained that Sri Lanka’s current power generation mix, as of November 2024, includes:

27% from hydroelectric power

19.6% from rooftop solar

14.3% from coal

13.6% from oil

5.1% from private oil plants

Smaller contributions from wind, biomass, and other renewable sources

A key concern is the lack of inertia in renewable energy sources. Unlike conventional power plants, solar and wind do not provide inherent grid stability, leading to frequency fluctuations.

Prof. Samaranayake proposed an innovative solution for grid stability: implementing Virtual Inertia using advanced power electronic control systems. This approach mimics the stabilising effect of traditional rotating generators, ensuring a steady frequency supply in the grid.

Other potential solutions include:

Adding rotating machines such as LNG or nuclear power plants

Energy storage systems like pumped storage, flywheels, and large-scale battery systems

Enhancing grid regulations to support the integration of rooftop solar PV systems

The introduction of advanced Virtual Inertia technology is expected to complement regulatory changes that relax statutory voltage limits and improve the quality of electricity supply.

Another controversial yet forward-looking strategy discussed was the possibility of nuclear energy. According to sources from the Sri Lanka Atomic Energy Board (SLAEB), the country’s first nuclear power plant, leveraging integral pressurized water reactor (iPWR) technology, could be operational by 2032. Given Sri Lanka’s proximity to India, which already operates nuclear plants, proponents argue that nuclear energy could be a viable option for stabilizing the power grid.

Prof. Samaranayake stressed the need for a holistic approach, as solar PV continues to be vital to Sri Lanka’s energy future. This involves investing in energy storage, enhancing grid infrastructure, and enacting regulatory reforms. He called on policymakers, engineers, and the public to collaborate in creating a more sustainable and resilient energy landscape.

The Eng. (Prof.) R. H. Paul Memorial Oration reminds us of engineering and innovation’s critical role in tackling global energy challenges. With strategic planning and technological advancements, Sri Lanka can pave the way for a cleaner, more sustainable future.

The oration paid tribute to the late Prof. R. H. Paul, a distinguished academic and former Dean of the Faculty of Engineering, University of Peradeniya, who made significant contributions to electrical and electronic engineering in Sri Lanka. His legacy continues to inspire advancements in the energy sector.

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