Features
Can we have good economics and bad politics?
Edited by Amaya Vershuur
On Sunday, July 3, a week prior to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation, I wrote an article called ‘’ in which I reflected on the proposed economic reform programme, the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and argued for a broad coalition of activists, political leaders and professionals to come together to provide a more just and decent economic reform plan for all Sri Lankans.
I received a response the very next day from Shanta Devarajan, former Chief Economist of the World Bank, familiar with Sri Lanka and knowledgeable about the workings of the IMF. While much has changed since President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation, much remains the same – in particular Sri Lanka’s need for an IMF bailout. Below is our frank discussion of the impact of an IMF bailout on Sri Lanka’s economic situation.
Shanta D:Thanks for sharing the article. Since you asked for reactions, I will share mine with you. While your proposed “Next Steps” are perfectly sensible, I think your characterization of the economic reform program and the role of the IMF and other IFIs is incorrect (and perpetuates some myths from the 1970s). Furthermore, a closer look at the current situation in Sri Lanka provides an opportunity for the economic and political agendas to come together.
Is the government strong enough to implement the necessary reforms?
Shanta D: In your article you state that, “Even if this government (the previous government headed by Gotabaya Rajapaksas with Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister) lasts it would be too weak to carry out the stringent economic reforms that the IMF is likely to impose on Sri Lanka.” However, the government has already undertaken most of the reforms proposed in the programme. So it’s hard to see how the government is too weak to carry out the reforms. Furthermore you mention “Caught between the economic pressure of IFIs and lenders…” The only pressure is coming from the Sri Lankan government, which took the decision to call for a debt standstill and embark on a debt restructuring program and an IMF program. In order to achieve a debt restructuring (i.e. get the creditors to agree to take a haircut on their bonds and debts), the Sri Lankan government has to show that it has a credible fiscal policy that will ensure that it can pay back the (reduced) level of debt. So all of the economic reforms in the IMF program are reforms needed to restore stability to Sri Lanka’s fiscal policy so that it can reduce its debt. The pressure is self-imposed because without a debt restructuring, the economy would simply collapse and be unable to recover for a long time (just look at Lebanon).
Ram M:In terms of government weakness/strength, I do think the government may be strong enough to carry out some of the reforms – such as flexible exchange rates and some tax increases. Getting rid of subsidies though maybe trickier. And I am not convinced they can reduce expenditure on State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) in the face of strong public sector unions. Even a vanity project like Sri Lankan Airlines is still to be privatized, leave alone the Petroleum Corporation and the Ceylon Electricity Board. For this to happen, you need a strong government with the support of the people willing to take on entrenched interests.
Shanta D:Currently, the government is working on schemes to provide alternative employment options for the laid-off workers in the privatized SOEs. One of them is to use the government-owned land to give these workers shares in the land, which they could then farm themselves or lease to other farmers. In any event, there is a lot of experience around the world in managing worker resistance to privatization. Programs such as voluntary retirement schemes and even cash transfers (as in Brazil’s Bolsa Familia) have overcome the much-feared resistance from workers. I don’t think having a strong government is either necessary or sufficient. It takes a creative plan and excellent public communication. The current situation in Sri Lanka helps because of the widespread antipathy to the status quo.
Ram M:I take your general point that worker resistance can be reduced by creative schemes. But I just do not see how a government that lacks support can be effective at coming up with creative ideas or good public communication. At a minimum there should be a plan and the government should communicate it. And preferably, the plan should be viewed as fair and that the money saved as not wasted – for example on SUVs for ministers. I do not see the current conditions reflecting that. Very few people – other than SLPP politicians – will see whatever the government does as legitimate.
My point is that a politically weak government is more likely to agree to external measures and lender/IMF pressure that leads to an agreement that is not as good, as one that could be achieved with a government that is strong. I do not really buy your point that this restructuring is self-imposed by the government. Yes we chose an orderly default instead of a disorderly default, as is the case in Lebanon. But we still have to agree on a debt restructuring programme. And I do not think there is only one type of debt restructuring programme that is given simply by our level of debt and ability to pay it off. In theory, yes. In practice, the programme will depend a lot on how effective the government is at coming up with options, negotiating its position and winning over friends and convincing detractors.
Shanta D:What is this “better agreement” that a strong government would agree to? The economic policies that are being agreed to in the Sri Lanka program are not that different from those agreed to by Korea during the Asian financial crisis of 1997, Argentina during its many crises, and Chad and Republic of Congo in the recent oil price decline of 2014. So extremely weak and extremely strong governments negotiate more or less the same policy package. This tells me that the policy package has to do with the economics of the situation rather than the politics (as it should be).
Ram M:On your comparison between the current Sri Lankan program and those implemented in other contexts, I am sceptical about the argument that short term pain is necessary for medium to long term gain. Most IMF programmes are associated with austerity – at least in the short term. Greece, Spain, not to mention many parts of Latin America. These measures end up punishing the people for the blunders or worse corruption of their leaders. And bilateral and multilateral lenders end up imposing these restrictions, not just because of good economics (balance the budget and reduce wasteful expenditure), but because of politics – a kind of morality play where rich countries (and their public) feel that someone should pay for this. That someone ends up being the poor, or at least the lower middle class and salaried folk – who had nothing to do with the bad decisions of their governments. They gained nothing from it. And indeed suffered from those decisions to begin with.
Shanta D:Let’s separate appearances from reality. Of course, these IMF programs are associated with austerity and when there is austerity, everybody suffers and in some cases, the poor suffer more (incidentally, the recent evidence is that the poor don’t suffer more than the non-poor). And in many cases, the middle class takes a hit. But you have to always compare this outcome to the counterfactual. What would have happened in the absence of the IMF program? In almost all cases, the economy would have collapsed and the poor would have suffered immeasurably. Since (by definition) we don’t observe the counterfactual, most people observe the hardship associated with the IMF program and blame the Fund. But the reality is that the Fund is trying to avoid an even bigger disaster from happening.
Furthermore, for a given austerity program, whether the poor are hurt more than the non-poor depends on the existing policies and institutions in the country. Typically, in these countries, the policies and institutions are captured by the elites. In Egypt, the energy-intensive industries are owned by government cronies who therefore keep energy prices low. Since these are powerful people, they make sure that the burden of an austerity program doesn’t fall on them, which is why they get off Scot free. World Bank programs try to dislodge these entrenched elites (subsidy reform, targeted cash transfers, SOE reforms, etc.) but, as you observed, there are limits given the existing political situation. And a program is needed to avert the bigger collapse. So the Fund and Bank compromise and allow some of the anti-poor distortions in the economy to continue, in order to get the program delivered. But the underlying problem is the policy and institutional framework in the country rather than the IMF program.
Who is to blame?
Ram M:The problem we are in is certainly self-inflicted, in that our corrupt governments borrowed more than we could pay off for non-productive projects. Those who pushed debt on the SL government, or for that matter any other badly run third world government, and lent money for corrupt projects do not pay a price. Sure some of them take a haircut, but many others have already recouped their investments.
Shanta D: Every loan has a risk associated with it. That is why lenders do a cost-benefit analysis of the project before financing. If they made a mistake with their cost-benefit analysis, then they do pay for it in the case of default. Of course, if the borrower doesn’t want to default and continues paying back the loan when it’s gone bad (just like Sri Lanka did paying off the bondholders when the country lost access to capital markets), that’s the borrower’s fault, not the lender’s.
Ram M:But there is “self dealing” or at least backroom dealing going on that leads to a country like Sri Lanka taking on more debt than it can pay back. Consider the Central Bank under Cabraal paying bond holders even after we lost access to capital markets. There is a private complaint in courts alleging that either through corruption or gross negligence he is responsible for the economic crisis in the country. But it is exactly this leap from Cabraal to Sri Lanka that I am pushing back against. Let us – only for the sake of argument – say that senior officials had a deal with bond holders. And promised to pay them back no matter what the consequences for Sri Lanka’s people. That is exactly the kind of “debt pushing” and back room deals by lenders and key officials in debtor countries that I am concerned about here. Why should the Lankan people pay the price for this? OK we elected President Gotabaya, and he appointed these officials. So it is our fault in the end. But isn’t that a bit of a stretch when it comes to accountability. Since we did not really elect President Gotabaya to undermine the economy in this way. Moreover, this lets bond holders off the hook – when they knowingly invest in shaky bonds on the basis of assurances given by “dodgy” officials. So my concern here is about “odious” debt where debt pushers not only fail to pay a price, but actually make a profit.
Shanta D:I’m still not convinced that the creditors did anything wrong. Anyone who buys an ISB is taking a risk. The bond can be paid back at face value or, if the economy gets worse, it could be worth a lot less on the secondary market. In Sri Lanka’s case, the ISBs were trading at a discount in 2021 because everyone saw that the economy was declining and Sri Lanka would probably not be able to pay back. However, the Sri Lankan government took the decision in January 2022 to pay back $500 million ISBs in full (starving the people of much needed imports). The bondholders who bought these ISBs at a discount in 2021 made a killing but that was because of the Sri Lankan government’s decision. Now, you could say that the people who bought Sri Lankan ISBs in the secondary market in 2021 may have had some inside information that Sri Lanka was going to pay in full, but I would think that even this information was not reliable and they were taking a risk. So I would put the blame for the current crisis squarely on the government.
What will be the impact of the economic reform measures for normal Sri Lankans?
Shanta D:In your article you state that, “Even if this government (then headed by Gotabaya Rajapaksa) lasts, it would be too weak to carry out the stringent economic reforms that the IFIs are likely to impose on Sri Lanka.” How do you know that the economic reforms are “stringent”? The program that is currently being negotiated between the government and the Fund includes tax increases, subsidy cuts, targeted cash transfers, interest rate increases, and exchange rate flexibility. They are not what any of us would call stringent.
Tax increases and subsidy cuts
Ram M:Tax increases and subsidy cuts can work in a “normal” situation. But in the context of an economic contraction they have the potential to move us in a downward economic spiral. In terms of tax increases, my concern is not about income tax, property tax or taxes on business profits. But particularly regressive taxes – such as VAT – that have a significant impact on the poor.
Shanta D:First, the international evidence on whether the VAT is regressive or progressive is ambiguous, leaning towards neutral or mildly progressive. Second, in the Sri Lankan case, note that the Rajapaksa administration reduced VAT rates by seven percentage points in November 2019. Did the poor benefit from this? I think the reduction was to benefit some powerful business interests. So the increase in VAT will also likely hurt those interests. Third, in the current situation in Sri Lanka, an increase in taxes, including VAT (which by the way is one of the most efficient ways of increasing revenues), is likely to reduce inflation, which helps the poor and, by making the fiscal balance more sustainable, will bring in foreign exchange, both through the IMF program and the debt restructuring.
Ram M:I want to just focus on whether or not VAT is regressive – not the repercussions of reducing the fiscal deficit on the poor. That is a bigger and separate debate – where the answer I think is that it depends on what the money is used for. Of course VAT is an effective way to increase revenues. And yes – the rich spend more – so VAT will lead to a larger share of taxes on the rich. But it leaves untaxed – income, wealth, property and savings. So isn’t the answer a combination of VAT and other taxes. And shouldn’t we be shoring up our capacity to tax, not just look at VAT?
Shanta D:Yes, of course we should be looking at other tax instruments as well but in the short run, the VAT is the most effective instrument we have to raise revenues. The other tax that we should be considering is rescinding all the tax incentives given to investors. This to me is the biggest scandal. A number of rich investors, foreign and domestic, pay no taxes because they received tax holidays when they invested in the country. First, the international evidence is these tax incentives don’t result in higher investment. Secondly, at this time of acute revenue shortage, when ordinary Sri Lankans are having to tighten their belts, it is unacceptable that this group of rich people get away Scot free. To be sure, taxing them would mean abrogating the agreement that they pay no taxes. But we have already abrogated a series of debt contracts (ISBs, etc.), so I don’t see why we shouldn’t do the same for these investment contracts.
That said, we should keep in mind two things. First, the VAT has proven to be a really effective instrument around the world, and especially in developing countries, as a minimally distorting form of taxation. Second, we should be trying to achieve our equity objectives through the fiscal system as a whole rather than separate the revenue and expenditure sides. Most developing countries try to achieve a neutral tax system and achieve their redistribution objectives through the expenditure system (it’s the reverse in developed countries). So I think you should focus on the impact of the fiscal system on the poor rather than looking at each tax instrument. The latter is in fact dangerous. I’ve seen many countries that introduce a highly progressive income tax system but one that doesn’t generate much revenue (Sri Lanka is a bit like that). They then don’t cut expenditures so they run huge fiscal deficits that lead to inflation, debt crises and the like which end up hurting the poor very badly.
Interest Rates
Ram M:On the increase in interest rates, while you need to fight (hyper) inflation, what about a situation where the poor are indebted and spend significant parts of their income servicing debt. How is this affected by inflation – positively or negatively. If I am poor and heavily indebted, would inflation be a good thing?
Shanta D:In general, inflation helps debtors and hurts creditors (because the real value of what they have to pay back is eroding). If there are genuinely poor people who have high debts, there are ways of forgiving their debts. But you need to be careful here. Many of the people who claim to be poor and indebted are not poor (that’s why they were able to take on the loans in the first place). For instance, many tuk-tuk drivers borrowed to buy their tuk-tuks. But these are mainly urban dwellers in Colombo who come from the 80th percentile of the income distribution. In general, we should avoid giving relief to specific types of workers or sectors. The cash transfers should be given to poor people regardless of which sector they work in.
Now to the opportunities from the current crisis
.Shanta D:The two main differences with the current crisis are: (i) the people are already suffering from a government-imposed austerity program (because of the shortage of foreign exchange) before the IMF program has been concluded. To the extent that the IMF program will bring in $4-5 billion in foreign exchange, it will relieve the shortages rather than exacerbate them. So the effect of the IMF program is to put Sri Lankan fiscal policy on a path that can, over time, enable the country to bring in foreign exchange (and pay less to creditors). So I don’t see the IMF program as necessarily “aggravating the crisis”. On the contrary, it is likely to relieve it. (ii) the people in the Aragalaya movement clearly see the link between the government’s failed economic policies and their dire economic situation today. They don’t blame Covid or the Ukraine war–they know it was the misguided policies of the administration (including the delays in going to the Fund and undertaking a debt restructuring) that got us into this mess.
Some of them seem to understand that subsidies are not helpful when you run out of money to pay for them. This is a huge improvement in thinking from, frankly, what I hear from Sri Lankan politicians from the left and the right. The logical extension of this argument is that, if the government’s policies led to the current situation, then to get out of the situation, we must reverse those policies. That is exactly what the economic reform program is doing–reversing the tax cuts of November 2019, reducing regressive subsidies, expanding targeted cash transfers, cutting government borrowing from the central bank, raising interest rates, making the exchange rate flexible, and approaching the IMF and embarking on a debt restructuring. So the demands of the Aragalaya movement are consistent with the IMF program. We should seize this unique opportunity to galvanize the support of the Aragalaya movement in order to counter the usual objections from senior politicians to the economic reforms on grounds that they will not be politically acceptable. Most of these objections stem from an effort to protect the rents accruing to their particular political base. This is a chance to call their bluff.
Ram M:I agree that just because the IMF helps bailout Sri Lanka, need not mean then President Gotabaya (and now President Wickremesinghe) will continue in power. Whether or not a President or government continues, depends on the opposition and the protesters and their ability to out manoeuvre those in power, politically. And making people suffer in order to get a government out is not only unconscionable, but also not likely to succeed (again look at Lebanon). In this regard, I do think that we should separate these two issues, even as we use, to the extent possible, the economic pressure to press for political reforms.
(Ram Manikkalingam is the Director of the Dialogue Advisory Group and a Visiting Professor at the University of Amsterdam.
Shanta Devarajan is a former Chief Economist of the World Bank and a Professor at Georgetown University.)
Features
The scope of Sri Lanka’s commitments to accountability
At the 60th Session of the UNHRC held in September 2025, Foreign Minister of Sri Lanka Vijitha Herath stated: “We sincerely believe that external action will only serve to create divisions, thereby jeopardising the genuine and tangible national processes that have already been set in motion”. In keeping with that concept “The Government is committed to advance accountability through credible domestic processes by establishing “an independent public prosecutor’s office”.
In fact, establishing such an office may involve amendments to existing Constitutional and Legal provisions depending on what specific acts have been violated by individuals or by groups. For instance, the statement by the Foreign Minister states: “We are also committed to ensuring that any person alleged to have committed any unlawful act is investigated, prosecuted and brought before courts through an independent national process, irrespective of their social status, background or any other ground”. This commitment is too vague in scope. On the other hand, if accountability is limited to “unlawful acts” associated with Sri Lanka’s Armed Conflict, the scope of amendments needed would be more specific. The material presented below is limited to “unlawful acts” relating to the Armed Conflict.
UNLAWFUL ACTS relating to ARMED CONFLICT
With the Security Forces representing the Government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE representing the Tamil Community were engaged in an Armed Conflict as citizens of Sri Lanka, each party to the Conflict should be held accountable by the same laws.
The only International Laws ratified by Sri Lanka are the 4 Geneva Conventions. Although these 4 Conventions were ratified in October 1959, they were incorporated into Domestic Law ONLY in 2006 by Act No. 4 of 2006. However, the provisions of this Act have NOT been in operation, since no Minister has signed it as required by the Act, that states: “1. (1) This Act may be cited as the Geneva Conventions Act, No. 4 of 2006 and shall come into operation on such date as the Minister may by Order published in the Gazette appoint (hereinafter referred to as the “appointed date”).
(2) Different dates may be appointed for the different Parts of the Act to come into operation”. Therefore, provisions of Act No. 4 of 2006 are not applicable to address accountability related issues.
The only other International Law incorporated into Domestic Law is Act No. 56 of 2007 relating to provisions in the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. Article 3 (1) states: “No person shall propagate war or advocate national, racial or religious hatred that constitutes incitement to discrimination, hostility or violence”. This provision by itself justifies the LTTE to be held accountable for waging war against the State of Sri Lanka.
Furthermore, Sri Lanka has not ratified any other International Law including Protocols I and II Additional to the 4 Geneva Conventions. Therefore, no Domestic Law relating to Protocol II Additional to the 4 Geneva Convention exists.
Consequently, the scope of any accountability exercise should be limited to the provisions of Sri Lanka’s Penal Code and other laws such as the Army, Navy and Air Force Acts. Since the Armed Conflict initiated by the LTTE was an “OFFENCE AGAINST THE STATE according to CHAPTER VI of the Penal Code to create the State of Tamil Eelam, accountability for “unlawful acts” committed by the LTTE or the Security Forces have to be on the basis of the Penal Code.
Therefore, it is imperative that the “independent public prosecutor’s Office the Government is committed to set up is guided by the Legal provisions of Sri Lanka’s Penal Code when it undertakes the accountability exercise.
The Penal Code has no provision for War Crimes, Crimes against Humanity or Command Responsibility. However, although such provisions exist in Internationally recognized instruments, they are not relevant to accountability issues relating to parties to Sri Lanka’s Armed Conflict since International Laws do not automatically become Domestic Laws because Sri Lanka’s Dual Legal System requires such laws to be expressly incorporated into Domestic Law through Legislation for one to be enforceable in local Courts as in the case of Act No. 4 of 2006 and Act No. 56 of 20007.
CHALLENGES to the ACCOUNTABILITY EXERCISE
The Government expressed its commitment to “ensuring that any person alleged to have committed any unlawful act is investigated, prosecuted and brought before courts through an independent national process, irrespective of their social status, background or any other ground”. Despite such commitments, the stark reality is that individual commanders or former leaders of the LTTE who strategized, planned and implemented operations to carry out war against the State of Sri Lanka cannot be brought before a court of law because, either they claim not to exist or cannot be located.
This however, is not the case with the circumstances of the Security Forces that were associated with the conflict. A significant number of them along with their high ranking military officers and political leaders survived. Some of them have already been sanctioned on account of alleged war crimes based on alleged existing evidence, despite such provisions not being part of the Penal Code. Even if prosecuted by a Court of Law for violations committed under the Penal Code, their numbers would be considerably more, by virtue of the simple fact that they exist and furthermore can be located and produced before a Court of Law. Such an outcome would be inevitable if the government proceeds with its plan to investigate and prosecute perpetrators of crimes in the name of Justice for the victims of such crimes. This would be the outcome of the Retributive Process the Government is committed to pursue – a process that would seriously polarize the communities thus, jeopardizing “the genuine and tangible national processes that have already been set in motion” by the Government as the justification for a Domestic Process to address accountability.
Retribution in the name of justice ignores the fact that it is directed at none other than those who gave their full measure of devotion to protect the State and make the country whole, thereby ensuring security to millions who endured insecurity of such a degree that families would not travel together and parents would anxiously await the return of children from school because of possible terror attacks. Therefore, whether it is an external or domestic mechanism, any form of accountability exercise would be a blowback to reconciliation.
CONCLUSION
Two conclusions could be reached from the material presented above. The first is that the Legal Framework for an accountability exercise in Sri Lanka should be Sri Lanka’s Penal Code. The second is that International Laws or other Instruments relating to Armed Conflicts, whether ratified or not, are NOT applicable to Sri Lanka’s accountability exercise if such Laws have not been incorporated into Domestic Law. The reason being, Sri Lanka’s Dual Legal System prevents such recognition.
The statement by the Foreign Minister at the 60th Session of the UNHRC states: “As President Dissanayaka has reiterated, we are firmly and genuinely committed to working towards a country that respects and celebrates the diversity of its people with no division or discrimination, and we are resolved not to leave room for a resurgence of racism or extremism”.
Continuing, the statement states: “We are also committed to ensuring that any person alleged to have committed any unlawful act is investigated, prosecuted and brought before courts through an independent national process, irrespective of their social status, background or any other ground”. If such a commitment applies to those who participated in Sri Lanka’s Armed Conflict, the consequences of accountability would contradict the intentions stated by the President cited above, namely, to creating a nation that “respects and celebrates diversity of its people etc. etc. because LTTE leadership and the High Command cannot be brought before a Court of Law since they do not exist and/or be located, while the possibility exists for members of the Security Forces to be investigated and prosecuted simply because they exist and can be located to be produced before a Court of Law. Since this disparity is seriously discriminatory, the accountability exercise proposed by the Government would create the environment to polarise communities further – a prospect that contradicts the President’s stated intentions of a people with “no division or discrimination”,
Therefore, the government should revisit its stand on what constitutes Justice. Is it to be Retributive or Restorative? If it is to Investigate and Prosecute with an Independent Public Prosecutor, it is NOT Justice for the reasons cited above. On the other hand, Restorative Justice is not new to Sri Lanka, considering that out of “more than eleven thousand LTTE cadres who surrendered or were detained… 595 former LTTE child soldiers were rehabilitated … and reunited with their families … while a further 6130 were rehabilitated by 2011” (p.82, Ministry of Defence).
With such a history, the government should seriously explore all possibilities of Restorative Justice, starting with a blanket Amnesty for ALL associated with the Insurrections and the Armed Conflict and extending it beyond to restore the livelihood and the wellbeing of the survivors in ALL communities.
by Neville Ladduwahetty ✍️
Features
A scientific perspective: Why are elephant drives ineffective in mitigating human–elephant conflict?
Recently, an elephant drive was launched in the Hambantota District with the aim of mitigating the human–elephant conflict (HEC). However, the real question is whether HEC can truly be mitigated through elephant drives. Decades of scientific research in Sri Lanka have consistently shown that such drives are not only ineffective but also waste public funds and severely disrupt elephant social structures.
Some authorities assert that they are conducting this particular drive using a “scientific approach” and considering the welfare of both elephants and humans. Nevertheless, this claim is misleading. There is no scientific evidence to support the idea that elephant drives successfully mitigate HEC or promote the welfare of either elephants or people.
Science is built on observation, experimentation, and evidence-based conclusions—and all existing research using these methods has proven that elephant drives simply are not a solution for HEC mitigation.
What are elephant drives?
During the colonial period, “game drives” were organised to drive wild animals toward hunters for sport. Similarly, drives were used to herd elephants into kraals—large enclosures built for capturing them.
In modern times, elephant drives are carried out to relocate herds from one area to another in the belief that this may help reduce the intensity of HEC. These operations involve large groups of people chasing elephants by shouting and setting off firecrackers or thunder flashes, causing the frightened animals to flee. This process continues for days, subjecting the elephants to extreme stress. Once the animals are herded into the designated area, an electric fence is typically erected to confine them.
Although elephant drives have been conducted in Sri Lanka since the 1970s, including the most recent in 2025, none have succeeded in resolving HEC. A review of drives carried out between 1974 and 1993 showed that in eight out of nine cases, some or all of the relocated elephants eventually returned to their original habitats. In some areas, residents even reported that HEC worsened after such operations. This is likely because elephants, being highly intelligent and capable of long-term memory, remember the trauma of being driven away—making them more aggressive when they return.
In elephant societies, females and their young typically form cohesive herds, while adult males lead solitary lives. It is these lone males—particularly the aggressive individuals—that are responsible for the majority of HEC, including nearly all human fatalities, injuries, and property damage. They also account for most crop raids, often breaching even well-guarded fields. Unfortunately, such problem-causing males are notoriously resistant to removal through elephant drives and tend to remain in the conflict zones. Meanwhile, the elephants that are successfully driven out and confined to protected areas are predominantly females and juveniles—individuals who pose minimal threat to human communities.
The Centre for Conservation and Research (CCR) had recognised three types of elephant drives known as large, medium and small scale. Large-scale elephant drives cover vast areas, often hundreds of square kilometres, and can last from several months to over a year. Their goal is to completely remove elephants from their home ranges. Medium-scale drives, lasting a few days to weeks, move elephants only a few kilometres—usually within their existing ranges—and sometimes aim to confine them to protected areas. In contrast, small-scale drives are short-term responses to elephants entering villages or farmlands. These are typically carried out by locals or, if necessary, the Department of Wildlife Conservation (DWC). Such actions are better described as “elephant chasing”, since they differ in purpose and scale from larger, organised drives despite using similar methods.
Consequences of elephant drives
According to science-based strategy, the “National Action Plan for the Mitigation of Human-Elephant Conflict” mentions that large-scale elephant drives, which forcibly move herds from their home ranges into protected areas, often result in starvation and death, making it a threat to elephant conservation. For development projects in elephant habitats, a phased land-clearing approach combined with progressively expanded electric fencing is recommended to reduce both habitat loss and conflict, avoiding the failures and costs of elephant drives.
Medium-scale drives merely displace elephants within their home ranges and fail to offer lasting relief from HEC. These operations often heighten elephant aggression and may trap herds inside protected areas where limited resources can lead to starvation. Such drives are typically carried out due to public or political pressure, despite their counterproductive outcomes.
Small-scale “elephant chasing” remains a short-term necessity until more effective measures are introduced. However, it should be restricted to urgent cases and conducted with minimal aggression to avoid worsening conflict. To manage this better, systematic data collection on elephant chasing—such as frequency, effectiveness, and outcomes—is essential to assess its true impact on HEC mitigation and elephant conservation.
Examples highlighting the repercussions of elephant drives
For many years, elephant herds in the Yala region used the forested and chena farming areas north of the park during the dry season. Farmers cultivated their crops during the rainy season and left afterward, allowing elephants to feed on the leftover vegetation. This system created a natural balance between people and elephants, with both sharing the land at different times of the year.
Around 2000–2001, however, the DWC did an elephant drive and constructed an electric fence to prevent elephants from leaving the park and entering nearby agricultural lands. Once the fence was fully closed, elephants became trapped inside Yala National Park, which mostly consists of mature forest that provides limited food during the dry months. As a result of this confinement, many young elephants and several females within most herds succumbed to starvation. The fence, meant to protect farmlands, ended up harming the elephants that rarely raided crops. Most raiding males remain outside the fence in Forest Department lands and the Nimalawa Sanctuary, while others repeatedly break the fence—leaving at night to raid crops and returning to the park by morning.
Another classic example is the 2006 Lunugamwehera elephant drive, which confined the elephants to a small patch of forest. This overcrowding, coupled with the lack of food and water, ultimately led many of them to die of starvation.
These stories highlight how well-intentioned but poorly planned conservation actions, such as elephant drives, confining elephants to limited habitats, can have devastating effects—threatening both humans and elephants.
What could be done instead to mitigate HEC?
It is worth noting that in 2020, a committee of wildlife experts developed a National Action Plan for mitigating HEC. The strategies outlined in this plan were selected based on proven effectiveness, practical feasibility across different regions and timeframes, and overall cost efficiency. In the pilot project areas, villagers reported that they used to experience frequent HEC before the project was implemented, but that the problem largely disappeared afterward. Public consultations and discussions with relevant government agencies were also held, and their input was incorporated where appropriate. If this plan is properly implemented, it holds strong potential to significantly reduce HEC in the country.
by Tharindu Muthukumarana ✍️
tharinduele@gmail.com
(Author of the award-winning book “The Life of Last Proboscideans: Elephants”)
Features
In the Heart of the Amazon: COP 30 and the fate of the Planet
My recent visit to Brazil coincided partly with the Conference of the Parties (COP) 30, the 30th United Nations Climate Conference in Belém. Although I did not attend COP 30, I was very fortunate to visit the Amazon. It was both awe-inspiring and humbling to experience —even briefly—the mystery and stillness of nature, and the ebb and flow of life in the Amazon: the largest tropical rainforest in the world, sustained by the ever-flowing Amazon River, the largest and widest river on Earth.
The magnificent forest, the river, and its tributaries, such as the black-water Rio Negro, teem with countless interdependent species. The great Samaúma—the “tree of life,” or giant kapok tree—stands tall above innumerable other trees, vines, and plants. Many trees provide homes for birds and other animals that build their nests high among the branches or near the roots. Sloths do not build nests; instead, they spend their entire lives in the forest canopy, hanging upside down from branches while resting or sleeping.
In contrast, capuchin and squirrel monkeys leap from tree to tree in search of food, while birds—from the tiniest short-tailed pygmy tyrant to the colorful red-crested, green, and black Amazon kingfishers—flit from branch to branch, each awaiting its own prey. As night falls, the beautiful white owl-like great potoo emerges and sits patiently, seemingly forever, waiting for its turn to hunt.
In the river, silvery flying fish—sometimes in droves—leap from the water to catch insects, while gray and pink dolphins bob up and down, chasing fish or simply playing. Along the banks, proud egrets and fierce spectacled and black caimans lie in wait for their prey. Overhead, flocks of birds, including parakeets, fill the sky with song as vultures descend to feed on the remains of fallen animals below.
Humans have also lived in the Amazon for tens of thousands of years, in close symbiosis with other species, hunting in the forest and fishing in the river for their survival. Petroglyphs—carvings of human and animal figures, along with abstract shapes etched into rocks along the Amazon River—speak of their deep respect for nature and their ways of communicating with one another. Even today, many of the indigenous communities who inhabit the Amazon remain devoted to protecting Mother Earth, upholding their eco-centric values and traditional ways of life.
There are also the river people (ribeirinhos), many of mixed indigenous and Portuguese descent, living along the Amazon River—often in floating homes or houses built on stilts. Their livelihoods and cultures are deeply intertwined with the river and forest, making the protection of the Amazon essential to their survival.
The Amazon lost an estimated 54.2 million hectares of forest—over 9% of its total area—between 2001 and 2020, an expanse roughly the size of France. The Brazilian Amazon, which makes up 62% of the rainforest’s territory, was the most affected, followed by Bolivia, Peru, and Colombia. Along with deforestation, the Amazon is estimated to lose 4,000 to 6,000 plant and animal species each year.
COP 30
At the opening of the COP 30 Conference in Belém, Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, the President of Brazil pointed out that concrete climate action is possible and that deforestation in the Amazon has been halved just in the past two years. He declared that the “era of fine speeches and good intentions is over” and that Brazil’s COP 30 will be a ‘COP of Truth and Action’, “COPs cannot be mere showcases of good ideas or annual gatherings for negotiators. They must be moments of contact with reality and of effective action to tackle climate change.”
President da Silva also emphasised that Brazil is a global leader in biofuel production—renewable energy derived from organic materials such as plants, algae, and waste—stressing that “a growth model based on fossil fuels cannot last.” Indeed, at COP 30, the future of the world’s tropical forests, vital ecosystems, and the shared climate of humanity and other species is at stake.
“Truth and Action”
Notwithstanding President da Silva’s optimistic pronouncements at Belém, troubling developments continue on the climate front in Brazil and around the world. In preparation for COP 30, the Brazilian government—along with India, Italy, and Japan—launched an ambitious initiative in October 2025: the “Belém 4x” pledge, which aims to quadruple global sustainable fuel use by 2035. This goal is projected to more than double current biofuel consumption. However, environmentalists have expressed concern that a massive expansion of biofuel production, if undertaken without strong safeguards, could accelerate deforestation, degrade land and water resources, harm ecosystems, and threaten food security—particularly as crops such as soy, sugarcane, and palm oil compete for land between energy and food production.
Just days before COP30, the Brazilian government granted the state-run oil company Petrobras a license to drill for oil near the mouth of the Amazon River. The government, including Minister for the Environment Marina da Silva, has defended the move, claiming that the project would help finance Brazil’s energy transition and help achieve its economic development goals.
Environmentalists have criticized the decision, accusing the government of promoting fossil fuel expansion and worsening global warming. They warn that drilling off the coast of the world’s largest tropical rainforest—a crucial carbon sink—poses a serious threat to biodiversity and indigenous communities in the Amazon region.
According to environmental activists, in the Amazon, “31 million hectares of Indigenous Peoples’ territories are already overlapped by oil and gas blocks, with an additional 9.8 million hectares threatened by mining concessions.”
Moreover, a controversial four-lane highway, Avenida Liberdade, built in Belém in preparation for the COP30 climate summit, is being defended by the Brazilian government as necessary infrastructure for the city’s growing population. Environmentalists and some locals are alarmed that clearing more than 100 hectares of protected Amazon Rainforest to build the road will accelerate deforestation, harm wildlife, and undermine the climate goals of the COP summit.
The onus of protecting the Amazon Rainforest—often called “the lungs of the planet”— cannot rest on Brazil alone; it is a shared responsibility of all humanity. Numerous studies show that the world can thrive without fossil and biofuels by adopting alternative renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power.
The global order, led by the United States and other Western nations, bears primary responsibility for the climate and environmental crises, as well as for deepening global inequality. Emerging powers from the Global South—particularly the BRICS nations, including Brazil—are now called to move beyond rhetoric and take concrete action. As President Lula da Silva himself has stated, COP 30 presents a critical opportunity to move decisively in that direction.
Negotiators and policymakers at COP 30 must take firm, principled moral action—resisting pressure from the fossil fuel lobby and prioritizing the interests of the planet and its people over short-term, profit-driven growth.
Asoka Bandarage is the author of Women, Population and Global Crisis: A Politico-Economic Analysis (Zed Books, 1997), Sustainability and Well-Being: The Middle Path to Environment, Society and the Economy (Palgrave MacMillan, 2013) and numerous other publications on global political economy and the environment including “The Climate Emergency And Urgency of System Change” (2023) and ‘Existential Crisis, Mindfulness and the Middle Path to Social Action’ (2025). She serves on the Steering Committee of the Interfaith Moral Action on Climate.
by Dr. Asoka Bandarage ✍️
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