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Can Lockdowns stop the Spread of Coronavirus?

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Colombo Municipal Council Public Health Department officials conducted random PCR tests on people at the Fort Railway Station, Colombo. Some of the people undergoing the tests.Pic by Kamal Bogoda

There certainly seems to be a consensus in the media, and among political elites, that if there is another “outbreak” of the Coronavirus, then the “shelter in place” order will be the law of the land. “Shelter in place” is an official order, issued during an emergency, that directs people to stay in the indoor place or building that they already occupy, and not to leave unless absolutely necessary.

The present trend gaining momentum is that grocery stores and food companies are preparing for a possible surge in sales amid a new rise in Covid-19 cases.  Supermarkets are stockpiling groceries and storing them.  Food companies are accelerating production of their most popular items, and leaders across the industry are saying they will not be caught unprepared in the face of another pandemic surge.

One hardly can blame business owners and managers for wanting to be ahead of the curve, as governments at all levels have been merciless to businesses and employees, driving thousands of firms into bankruptcy and leaving millions of people unemployed. Furthermore, given the overt hostility that governments have toward private enterprise, politicians will take shortages and empty shelves as “proof” that private enterprise is in league with the devil to subvert the social order, and act accordingly to punish these miscreants.

First and foremost, it should be understood that locking down most of the population is at best a very temporary strategy. Even the economic consequences of quarantining a majority of business enterprises and shutting down their workplaces – the lockdown strategy – does little to combat the spreading of the virus, since it gives people no chance to build up immunities, which is the key to stopping it.

 

Boosting immunity

The health authorities should focus on boosting immunity through exercise, fresh air, sunlight, proper dietary supplementation, and the promotion of general well-being. Instead our politicians, bureaucrats, and media insist on business lockdowns, school closures, distancing, isolation, masks, and the mirage of a fast, effective vaccine.

The problem is that the virus is not going to disappear.  Even if one temporarily prevents its spread by shuttering people in their homes, sooner or later people will have to mingle, and when they do, their bodies will not be conditioned to fight it, and as a result the infection rate certainly will increase. In fact, that is what we have seen so far, as we have lockdowns followed by relaxation of the rules, followed by a surge of new infections. That surge then leads to panic in the media and among the political classes, with the new “solution” being – even more lockdowns.

One would think that this seemingly endless cycle of lockdown-relaxation-lockdown would lead the authorities to rethink their strategies, but that is not the case; and this willful blindness is not limited to Sri Lankan Politicians. We see governments in Denmark, Belgium, New Zealand, and elsewhere reverting to lockdowns after an increase in new infections.

Looking at the world, we see that the infection rate in Sweden is clearly falling in comparison to the infection rates of countries that have followed strict lockdown procedures. To a casual observer, it made sense to think that over the past eight months, if the mainstream “experts” were correct, Sweden would be a basket case, as Swedes have carried on with their lives—usually not wearing face coverings—in a way that would seem to be an open invitation to mass spreading of Covid-19.

Moreover, if the media is to be believed, Swedes should be dying in record numbers. We see none of that happening, yet the “Sweden-must-lock-down-or-else” narrative continues to dominate the news.

Rather than imposing a hard lockdown in March as other countries did, the Scandinavian nation relied on individual responsibility to stop the spread of the deadly coronavirus. This is the idea of accentuating on the common sense of the people — and the approach made headlines at the time. Gyms, stores and restaurants remained open; schools were open for kids up to age 16; while gatherings of more than 50 people were banned.

Authorities predicted that 40% of the people in Stockholm would get the disease and develop protective antibodies by May. The actual prevalence, however, was around 15%, according to the study published on 11th August 2020 in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine.

 

The Economic Aspect

Then there is the economic side. For the most part, progressives have framed the economic damage as a necessary “sacrifice” in order to bring the Covid-19 pandemic under control.  Progressivism is a political philosophy in support of social reform.  Contemporary progressives promote public policies that they believe will lead to positive social change.

If we should have learned anything in the past eight months, it should be that massive lockdowns impose huge costs and dubious benefits. The progressive notion that we can just close businesses, religious places, sports venues, and other offices—the unemployed being compensated with printed money—until someone develops the magic vaccination, and not suffer huge consequences. The financial and emotional stresses that come from lockdowns are harmful to both physical and mental health, and the evidence is all around us.

 

Political Class benefits

from Lockdowns

We have to understand that the political classes and their media have a vested interest in the lockdown status quo, and that includes regular provision of what can only be called disinformation.

As for politicians, the Covid crisis has been a godsend for those governmental executives and bureaucrats who see constitutional restrictions that limit their authority, as mere obstacles to be easily swept away. 

Governments often create crises or, at the very least, they manipulate events such as natural disasters, and use them as opportunities to expand governmental powers. Even after the crisis ends, governments keep some of their newly self-granted powers—and most people raise little or no concern even when the government has curtailed more of their freedoms.

 

Second-Wave Lockdowns

miscarry usefulness.

We know how the “second wave” lockdowns will end. At some point, with the economy of the country in shambles, the authorities will gradually lift some of the restrictions while demanding that people “voluntarily” engage in mask wearing and social distancing. Not long after the rules are relaxed, there inevitably will be a new surge of infections, as people who have been long separated come together without having built up their immune systems.

With no other options and because the governing classes have declared lockdowns to be the only way to defeat the virus, there almost surely will be Lockdown III, where the regime can get away with it. Whether the political classes here follow the same plan is very much an open question. We know beforehand that quarantining healthy people actually makes the long-term infection picture worse, and that the starting and stopping of the economy wreaks havoc on its own.

 

Conclusion

In the end, we only can conclude that shutting down much of social and business interaction, restricting worship services, and closing schools is ineffective in stopping viral infections, be they from the Covid-19 virus or some other pathogen. However, we also must conclude that ordering massive restrictions has become a winning political strategy. We also should understand that Covid-19 is not the last pandemic that will hit the world, and when a new pandemic—or even a hint of one—arises, the political classes will be in the forefront.

Despite the persistent myth that governance is about “solving problems” and “serving the people,” it is the rare person in governmental power these days who does not seek power for the sake of power itself. Those who use power to push progressive policies can be expected to receive positive media coverage, even if their policies are disastrous.

A Quote to Ponder : The great Frenchman Honoré de Balzac wrote, “Laws are spider webs through which the big flies pass and the little ones get caught.” ’

 

ZULKIFI NAZIM



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Opinion

A paradox of history

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Shakespeare

There seems to be a striking similarity between ancient Greece and modern Britain. Both countries remain paradoxes of history. Greece was a small city state constantly at war with neighbouring countries. It did not have a big army, but it had considerable sea power. However, Greece was a leading state over the whole of the Mediterranean. In fact, Greece was once a super power in the Western world.

Britain was very powerful in the 19th century. British justice was administered in Africa, India and Ceylon. British factories flourished in many countries and schoolchildren started reading R.L. Stevenson’s ‘Treasure Island’ and the works of Rudyard Kipling. What Ralph Waldo Emerson said in the 1850s is still valid today. He said, “If there’s one test of national genius universally accepted, it is success; and if there be one successful country in the universe for the last millennium, that country is England. It is the best of actual nations.”

In World War I, Britain faced a crushing defeat. Eventually, the British Empire was reduced to a Commonwealth. World War II shattered the image of Britain further. Although Britain lost much of its power, it continued to be an influential country. Even after achieving independence, India retained English as an official language. The British parliament system is well established in many Commonwealth countries. Some people still wonder how England still exercises its influence over the minds of men and women.

Staying power

There are many powerful countries in the world today such as the United States, Russia and China. Although England is not a super power, she has staying power. According to Oliver Wendell Holmes, a good part of greatness is simply being there. For that matter, England has been there for many centuries. So far no other country has been able to defeat her. As a result, sometimes we wonder whether we can have a world without England.

England has had an unwritten Constitution for a very long time. Other countries have emulated her political institutions. The British people have an established church with complete religious freedom. Although there are social classes in Britain, there has been no major clash among them. Unlike in many other countries, there are only two leading political parties in England. When the Labour Party is in power, the government is not subservient to labour. Similarly, when the Conservative Party is in power, the government is not conservative.

Most British colonies in the East including India and Ceylon did not sever the cultural and emotional links with Britain and retain them even after achieving independence. India became independent in 1947, but she decided to retain English as an official language. By doing so, India produced a number of English writers such as R.K Narayan. However, Ceylon did not give English any official status and treated it as a link language. As a result, students paid less attention to learning English. They were made to understand that everything can be done by learning Sinhala and Tamil. We have failed to produce English writers in the calibre of J. Vijayatunga who wrote ‘Grass for my feet.’

Politically shrinking

The United Kingdom is politically shrinking. However, its influence vibrates throughout the world. English has brought many nations together. There is a common understanding among countries that share the English language and literature. William Shakespeare’s dramas are staged in countries such as China where English is not an official language. People have come to the conclusion that English has become a broker of ideas and institutions.

England is not an aggressive country. However, if provoked, it can deliver a mortal blow to its enemy. British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher showed her mettle as the iron lady. Britain held the fort against the might of Napoleon Bonaparte who ruled France. The country can still boast of a heavy moral credit. The British stick to their international agreements. The power of England draws mainly from its language. British people say ‘It’s right’ when it is right’. When it is not right, they say, ‘It’s not right.’ Meanwhile English occupies a pre-eminent place in world languages. All the research work in many parts of the world is available in English. You can learn any subject easily through English.

Apart from the language, people respect British standards which are technical specifications and quality benchmarks developed by the British Standards Institution. The United Kingdom’s independent national standards body was established in 1901. It maintains over 37,000 standards covering industries such as construction, manufacturing and technology ensuring safety and reliability.

British English

Standard British English is the variety of English that has undergone codification to the point of being socially perceived as the standard language associated with formal schooling, language assessment and official print publications. For historical reasons dating back to the rise of London in the ninth century, the form of language spoken in London and the East Midlands became the Standard English used in schools, universities, literature and law.

British English functions as one of the two major foundational and standard varieties of the English language alongside American English. It serves as a primary reference point for spelling and grammar. It acts as a global standard, and international institutions are often defined by specific pronunciation.

Most Sri Lankan doctors primarily move to England for postgraduate training, higher specialisation and better career prospects. They are driven by superior training infrastructure, world-class facilities and globally recognised qualifications.

To sum up, when you think of learning an international language, there is no alternative to English. If you wish to read literature, you cannot ignore eminent English dramatists and poets such as William Shakespeare and John Milton. Many leading Sri Lankans like S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike were Oxford University products. Therefore, English deserves to be made an official language in Sri Lanka.

karunaratners@gmail.com

By R.S. Karunaratne

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Opinion

State Literary Awards only for the rich?

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The Department of Cultural Affairs has once again called authors, and publishers to lodge their entries for selection of the prestigious State Literary Awards 2026.The criteria and conditions required and notified in the public domain, makes it mandatory for the literary work to be printed and published prior to submission for consideration of the awards. There is absolutely no provision for writers to submit their work in Manuscript form.

Where does that leave the financially impoverished writers who are talented, creative and wish to submit a well edited typescript of their work as manuscript for consideration of the State Literary Awards? In a literary environment that encourages a proliferation of self-published books of all forms and features presented by vanity publishers who have their eye on the purse of the author than on literary merit and artistic excellence, it is easy to show that you are an ” established writer” by spending your cash abundantly towards glossy covered books which the printing industry and fawning publishers will lap up with greed.

Even the Gratiaen Prize in Sri Lanka, sponsored by world-renowned Michael Ondaatje allows for Manuscript entries together with published books. Significantly, the manuscript entries that win the prize are assisted to publish their work which is part of the winnings. Many a young, aspiring writer with little funds who won the Gratiaen Prize on merit, but had submitted their entry in manuscript form have been thereby encouraged to submit their work on merit basis only.

It is a fact that the Commonwealth Short Story Prize, a massive state-supported initiative across 56 nations accepts only unpublished short fiction. Further, several countries in the world have established national or state level literary prizes that specifically accept unpublished manuscripts to provide equity in discovering new talent and supporting national literature without bias or favour. In Australia, Jamaica, Philippines, major national awards organised by the State for literature, specifically accept unpublished manuscripts for consideration.

Let’s face the truth. The printing costs are escalating. There is little demand in Sri Lanka for literary work in the English Language in particular. Traditional Publishing where the literary work is reviewed and assessed for talent and creativity and thereafter published is seldom found. The reviews and critical analysis of literary works are rare. But publishers make a pile by pandering to the vanity of aspiring writers who have the financial clout to pay their way through to being featured in prestigious award ceremonies and accolades. Thereafter, their substandard works get a further fillip by bearing the label of “Won the State Literary Award for Literature”! It is a cycle of literary charlatans and their pimps in the publishing industry for whom the price that is paid for publishing and not Meritocracy is the sine-qua-non.

Is this the level playing field promised by the NPP Government and their Marxist protagonists? A government that was voted into power on the platform of affording fair opportunity and equality seems to discriminate in favour of the Haves against the Have- nots in the cultural department to say the least! Anil Fernando

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Opinion

Delivering on English

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English literature offers a rich heritage of wonderful ideas and thoughts. The reader can be intellectually uplifted. It brings refreshing new vistas and stimulating new ideas. However, this English literature has to be first introduced to the student in order to fire up his or her interest and be made aware of this rich source of culture. Students of basic English as a second language work hard and learn all the hum-drum mechanics of the language, for which they get tested and graded. But importantly, nae crucially, this should be followed up with intellectual rewards for the students’ efforts – which, of course, is the enjoyment of the works of literature of the many great writers in the English language. This is the great payoff, the great dividend for all their efforts but this, apparently goes missing.

One of the obvious reasons for the lack of “follow through” may be lack of time allocated in the curriculum – or, perhaps, more darkly, the teachers’ own lack of knowledge of the great range of good reading materials produced by the countless generations of literary geniuses who have gone before. Such writers have laid down for us a heritage of glorious literary works in books and essays, all of which are to be found in any good library. It is thought that much of this good literature ought to be introduced to all students of English, “full stop,” as part of developing a knowledgeable and cultured society. (Isn’t that what we want?) Reading English literature should bring an intellectual enrichment to all those willing to drink from this Bacchanalian horn of plenty.

It must be said finally, that it can be fairly expected that most young people, especially those learning English as a second language, are totally unaware of the many outstanding pieces of writing that propel English to stand tall amongst the rest. That is, students need to be first introduced to great writings and have a spark of interest ignited in these great works of literature.

For example, by being introduced to “Daffodils,” a short descriptive poem by William Wordsworth, the student can get some very pleasant ideas to think on.

Do not overlook Conan Doyle’s “Sherlock Holmes” detective stories, each one captivating the reader’s attention right to the end. It is by these short stories that the novice reader can first consolidate his power of reading.

For light reading Jerome K. Jerome’s book “Three Men in a Boat” is suggested. On one occasion he goes to the library suffering from a slight hay-fever (allergy) seeking a cure. He consults a book, “Lexicon of Pharmacology”, and recoils in horror as his symptoms fit most of those diseases described in the book! He concludes he cannot live much longer and staggers home to rest and recuperate! This is a well related tale in the book – although seemingly quite implausible!

Similarly, by having the poem meanings explained, e.g. “What is Life if Full of Care?” by William Henry Davis – how he regrets that we humans are always in a hurry, too busy to notice or see the delights of nature, and scenes of natural beauty, e.g., a young woman’s smile as she passes by; we have no time to make friends and even kiss her. Regrets! Explaining this to students would bring a certain intellectual insight.

John Keats’s poem, “Ode to Autumn” is another great work describing the ripening fruits of the autumn season and how nature as a living being, brings to fruition all the good things of a rural landscape quietly humming with warmth after a hot summer.

Again, it is likely necessary to explain to a young, Sri Lankan mind the meaning of the descriptive poetry found in this magnificent poem.

This is the real English to be tasted and then swigged at lustily in pleasure and satisfaction, not some writing airing historical grievances for children to study!

1970 British Cohort Study

It should be observed here that the ‘1970 British Cohort Study’ followed 70,000 people to examine various aspects of their lives. One result discovered was that if a young person reads a lot, it develops his/ her general intelligence no-matter his parents; it makes him smarter.

It was also noted that reading brings life-long benefits; it improves mood, it helps with social skills, increases empathy, reduces anxiety, protects against depression and slows brain decay, the study found.

But these days many young people never gain a great competence in reading English; the fear is that standards are falling. This is bringing poorer critical thinking, less depth of personality and less empathy for others which has the result of a more turbulent society.

People are urged to switch off their headphones and read more of what they like – try reading the newspapers!

Priyantha Hettige

 

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