Business

Black, White and Grey Markets: The dynamics of foreign exchange and remittances in Sri Lanka

Published

4 years ago

2021/12/18

Sahan Weerasooriya

By Bilesha Weeraratne

Written Ahead of International Migrants’ Day on December 18, 2021

Despite the pandemic and related difficulties in remitting, remittances to Sri Lanka had picked up by December 2020 to record year-over-year growth of 5.8 %, contrary to all expectations.

The reasons for such a quick rebound include catching up on postponed remittances, accumulated terminal employment benefits and savings-related remittances of migrant workers laid off due to the pandemic, receipt of counter-cyclical remittances from less frequent remitters and the shift from informal to formal channels. In the current context of the foreign exchange crisis in Sri Lanka, the latter is the most critical factor to focus on.

From Informal to Formal Channels

The fundamental reason for remitters to shift from informal to formal channels was the accessibility issue during lockdowns or limited physical operations. Similarly, the increased risk of informal channels may have encouraged the use of formal channels. With adjustments to operate under the new normal and easing of lockdown measures, it is reasonable to assume that the informal remittance channels may have also evolved to function during the pandemic. As such, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s (CBSL’s) Special Deposit Accounts (SDA), with its 1-2% higher interest rate and the LKR 2 higher foreign exchange rate for remittances channelled through licensed commercial banks (LCBs), were woefully inadequate to retain such recently converted formal remitters.

Black, White and Grey Foreign

Exchange Rates

One of the key attractions of informal remittances is the relatively low cost, partly due to the more attractive exchange rate offered by informal channels. The recent movements in the official LKR/USD foreign exchange rate indicated high pressure towards further depreciation and the excess demand amidst the deteriorating supply of USDs within the Sri Lankan economy resulted in a wide divergence between the exchange rate offered by the LCBs – the white market, and non-bank but authorised money exchangers. The latter can be termed ‘the grey market’ because they are permitted to buy foreign exchange, albeit did at their own rate. The divergence was even more pronounced compared with those of the black market or kerb rate.

Figure 1 below indicates a wide gap exceeding LKR 25 across the different foreign exchange markets from July to November 2021. This gap created an opportunity for informal remittances exchanged in the Sri Lankan grey or black foreign exchange market to be more rewarding to remitters. The extra LKR 2 and the subsequent top-up to an extra LKR 10 offered by the LCBs paled in comparison! Finally, in early December 2021, those in the grey market were forced to adhere to the soft pegged LKR/USD 198-202 rate.

Sources: Author’s compilation based on CBSL data and rates obtained by authorised money exchangers and media articles.

(https://economynext.com/sri-lanka-rupee-quoted-at-225-226-50-to-us-dollar-in-kerb-market-amid-money-printing-83579/;

https://economynext.com/sri-lanka-rupee-weakens-to-227-228-50-to-dollar-in-kerb-market-bond-yields-up-85162/;

https://ceylontoday.lk/news/official-directive-strengthens-kerb-market;

https://economynext.com/sri-lanka-cb-expects-falling-remittance-to-reverse-trend-from-october-87157/)

As seen in the top panel in Figure 2, when the CBSL intervention stabilised the LKR-USD exchange rate, formal remittances to Sri Lanka shown in the bottom panel continued on a steeper decline in October and November 2021.

Desperate Measures

In 2021 various mechanisms were rolled out to access foreign currency available in the economy. In May 2021, the CBSL directed that LCBs sell 10% of inward worker remittances converted to the CBSL. In October, a previous directive on the mandatory conversion of merchandise export proceeds was expanded to cover services. The change also shifted away from a 25% limit, to converting the “residual” after utilising goods and services export proceeds.

The Attractiveness of Informal Channels

This latest update has resulted in much confusion. Though the CBSL indicated that this directive would not affect worker remittances, operationally, this does not appear very likely. A single Personal Foreign Currency Account (PFCA) may receive foreign exchange as worker remittances from a family member or a well-wisher and payment for trade-in services. The method of distinguishing the two types of inward remittances is still unclear to many. At the same time, many individuals have already received correspondence from commercial banks requesting to convert the funds in their PFCAs.

Amidst the confusion and effort to protect workers’ foreign currency earnings, more migrant workers are seeking informal channels to remit, while others refrain from or delay remitting. Yet others are diverting their remittances to accounts held overseas.

Sources: Top panel https://www.cbsl.gov.lk/en/rates-and-indicators/exchange-rates; Bottom panel CBSL, Weekly Economic Indicators, various dates

Early Warning

Remittances are seasonal. As such, official remittances in December may increase. But it should not be prematurely considered an indicator of the success of the recent efforts to increase remittances or divert from informal to formal channels. The departures for labour migration during the first half of 2021 are a mere third of the pre-pandemic departures in the same period in 2019. Many migrant workers who return are unable to find foreign jobs and this depleted stock of Sri Lankan migrant workers is a weak base to prop up formal remittances.

Moreover, domestic economic hardship makes many migrants and families desirous of a possible extra return through informal remittance channels. As such, excessive regulations to clamp down on informal remittances may inadvertently create a breeding ground for even greater informal activities and black markets, thereby proving entirely counter-productive to the intended objectives.

Future efforts to increase remittances should not underestimate the resilience of informal remittance channels crafted along the centuries-old method of Undiyal or Hawala. Thus, instead of overly focusing on shifting from informal to formal channels of remittances, policies should mainly focus on ensuring a more realistic exchange rate. Similarly, it is important to encourage labour migration and trade in services and their remittances.

Link to original blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2021/12/17/black-white-and-grey-markets-the-dynamics-of-foreign-exchange-and-remittances-in-sri-lanka/#

Bilesha Weeraratne is a Research Fellow at IPS focusing on internal and international migration and urbanisation. She is also interested in labour economics, economic development, and economics of sports. Prior to re-joining IPS in 2014, Bilesha was a Postdoctoral Research Associate at Princeton University, USA. Bilesha holds a MPhil and a PhD in Economics from the City University of New York, USA. (Talk to Bilesha – bilesha@ips.lk)

All News Advertisement

Business

Beira Lake restoration, ‘a crucial urban environmental intervention’

Published

20 hours ago

2026/01/21

Thilina Walpola

The Beira Lake; in for a clean-up

Sri Lanka’s decision to invest Rs. 2.5 billion in restoring the heavily polluted Beira Lake marks one of the most significant urban environmental interventions in recent years, underscoring a growing recognition that ecological rehabilitation is also an economic imperative.

The multi-pronged project—covering the closure of illegal sewage discharge points, large-scale dredging, and the installation of aeration systems—is expected to not only revive aquatic life but also unlock commercial, tourism and real estate value in the heart of Colombo.

Officials say the initiative is designed to transform Beira Lake from a long-neglected liability into a productive urban asset.

A senior official from the Ministry of Environment told The Island Financial Review that untreated wastewater and illegal sewer connections had been the primary contributors to the lake’s degradation for decades. “Closing these illegal sewage points is the most critical intervention. Without that, any dredging or aeration would only offer temporary relief, the official said, adding that enforcement will be carried out in coordination with the Colombo Municipal Council (CMC) and other regulatory agencies.

From a business perspective, the clean-up is being viewed as a catalyst for urban regeneration. Urban Development Authority (UDA) sources noted that a healthier Beira Lake would significantly enhance the attractiveness of surrounding commercial developments, hospitality projects and public spaces. “Environmental remediation directly impacts land values and investor confidence. A clean, living lake changes the entire economic profile of the area, an UDA official said.

The dredging component of the project is aimed at removing decades of accumulated sludge, which has reduced water depth and contributed to foul odours and fish die-offs. According to officials involved in project planning, the dredged material will be disposed of following environmental guidelines to avoid secondary pollution risks—an issue that has undermined similar efforts in the past.

Meanwhile, the installation of modern aerators is expected to improve dissolved oxygen levels, a key requirement for sustaining fish and other aquatic organisms. “Restoring aquatic life is not just about biodiversity; it is about creating a water body that can safely support recreational activities and public engagement, a senior CMC engineer explained.

Economists point out that the Rs. 2.5 billion allocation, while substantial, should be seen against the long-term cost savings and revenue potential. Reduced public health risks, lower water treatment costs downstream, increased tourism activity and higher commercial footfall could deliver returns that far exceed the initial outlay.

By Ifham Nizam

Business

Expectation of positive Q3 corporate results jerks bourse to life

Published

20 hours ago

2026/01/21

Thilina Walpola

CSE activities kicked off on a negative note initially but later experienced some recovery yesterday because most investors were anticipating positive third quarter result shortly, market analysts said.

Amid those developments, the market indicated mixed reactions. The All Share Price Index went down by 4.13 points, while the S and P SL20 rose by 14.02 points. Turnover stood at Rs 5.17 billion with 11 crossings.

Top seven crossings were reported in Renuka Holdings where eight million shares crossed to the tune of Rs 324 million; its shares traded at Rs 40.50, Tokyo Cement one million shares crossed to the tune of Rs 113 million; its shares traded at Rs 113, Distilleries 1.85 million shares crossed for Rs 111 million; its shares traded at Rs 60, ACL Cables 500,000 shares crossed for Rs 51.5 million, its shares sold at Rs 103 Chevron Lubricants 250,000 shares crossed for Rs 47.5 million; its shares traded at Rs 190, Ambeon Capital 738600 shares crossed at Rs 40.50 each and Melstacope 150,000 shares crossed for Rs 27 million; its shares traded at Rs 180.

In the retail market top seven companies that mainly contributed to the turnover were; Colombo Dockyard Rs 1.26 billion (12 million shares traded), ACL Cables Rs 348 million (3.3 million shares traded), HNB (Non-Voting) Rs 152 million (425,000 shares traded), Hayleys Rs 109 million (507,000 shares traded), Tokyo Cement (Non-Voting) Rs 94 million (989,000 shares traded) Lanka Realty Investments Rs 80 million (1.6 million shares traded) and Sampath Bank Rs 77 million (498,000 shares traded). During the day 135 million share volumes changed hands in 38398 transactions.

It is said that manufacturing sector counters, especially Tokyo Cement and ACL Cables, performed well. Further, Colombo Dockyard became the most preferred share for investors. The Banking sector also performed well.

Browns Beach Hotels said that the company will delist from the CSE, having made arrangements with majority shareholders Melstacope and Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings to buy back shares from minority shareholders at an exit offer price of Rs 30.

Yesterday the rupee was quoted at Rs 309.75/85 to the US dollar in the spot market, from Rs 309.72/77 the previous day, having depreciated in recent weeks, dealers said, while bond yields were down.

A bond maturing on 15.05.2026 was quoted at 8.25/35 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.02.2028 was quoted at 9.00/10 percent, down from 9.05/10 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.12.2029 was quoted at 9.65/70 percent, up from 9.65/69 percent.

A bond maturing on 01.03.2030 was quoted at 9.72/75 percent, from 9.70/76 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.03.2031 was quoted at 9.95/10.00 percent, down from 10.00/10 percent.

A bond maturing on 01.10.2032 was quoted at 10.30/50 percent.

A bond maturing on 01.06.2033 was quoted at 10.72/75 percent, down from 10.70/80 percent.

A bond maturing on 15.06.2035 closed at 11.05/10 percent, down from 11.07/11 percent.

The telegraphic transfer rates for the American dollar were 306.2500 buying, 313.2500 selling; the British pound was 409.9898 buying, and 421.3080 selling, and the euro was 354.1773 buying, 365.5655 selling.

By Hiran H Senewiratne

Business

Ceylon Theatres and British Council present National Theatre Live’s ‘Hamlet’

Published

20 hours ago

2026/01/21

Thilina Walpola

Ceylon Theatres Limited, in partnership with British Council, is proud to present the first ever screening of National Theatre (NT) Live’s Hamlet starring Hiran Abeysekara in Asia. The first screening will happen at Regal Cinema in Dematagoda (Colombo 9) at 5:30 pm on Sunday, 25 January. Sri Lankan actor Hiran Abeysekera stars in the title role—the first Asian actor to play Hamlet in a National Theatre production.

For Sri Lankan audiences, this screening is both a celebration and a homecoming. It reflects the British Council’s long-standing commitment to nurturing creative talent, widening access to world-class culture, and building deep, people-to-people connections between Sri Lanka and the United Kingdom through theatre and the creative arts. To celebrate the inaugural screening, the British Council is inviting winners and runners-up of the All-Island Inter-School Shakespeare Drama Competition, alongside drama teachers and university actors, to attend the premiere.

Further details on screening dates, venues, and ticketing can be found at: https://ceylontheatres.com/ and on the British Council Instagram page https://www.instagram.com/britishcouncilsrilanka/ or call: 0766192370