by Uditha Devapriya
Initially advocated by the neoliberal right, the argument to default on the country’s debts is now being promoted by sections of the Left. The government has indicated that it will not listen to either camp – it transferred funds for the repayment of a USD 500 million bond, the first of two that need to be settled this year, earlier in the week – but that has not muted calls to abandon its policy of doing well by our creditors.
The neoliberal right’s arguments are predictable enough. Whereas earlier they demanded that the government go for debt restructuring to make it easier to repay bondholders and regain lost credit ratings, now they advocate the same so as to shift focus to other priorities, such as importing essential goods. To be sure, the neoliberal right is not alone in saying this: Colombo’s economic think-tanks, in general, recommend that the government exercise that option. They frequently draw a line between defaulting and going bankrupt, contending that the former is preferable and urging the government to think so as well.
Like the liberal and neoliberal right, Sri Lanka’s Left has not been uniform in its response to these issues. The Old Left, the LSSP and the Communist Party included, vehemently oppose any restructuring, a stance the Frontline Socialist Party also adheres to. On the other hand, the JVP or the NPP has failed to come up with a coherent response: while Bimal Ratnayake and Sunil Handunhetti have opposed going to the IMF, Harini Amarasuriya has argued that we need to abide by international rating agencies. It is a testament to the JVP-NPP’s want of vision that it may be one of the few parties identifying themselves with the Left which have openly, and publicly, described these agencies as independent. In this it is as confused as its attitude to China, a point I have noted before in this paper.
Not surprisingly, then, the Left’s argument to default is largely ideological. In an intriguing piece, Professor Sumanasiri Liyanage suggests that we don’t repay and that we “cut down the bigger portion of imports of consumer goods that is close to one billion dollars“, thereby saving USD five billion. Professor Liyanage warns against opting for neoliberal debt reforms, namely rescheduling, restructuring, and moratorium, noting that they are “not the answer.” Though he doesn’t specify his preferred approach, he argues that it will entail a “necessary and unavoidable” paradigm shift that will lead to a “permanent solution.”
Professor Liyanage calls all this a matter of “simple arithmetic.” As always, the truth is far more complex. Given the state of the global financial system, a default would invariably be followed by calls for restructuring. Should we opt for restructuring, economists recommend reaching a compromise between the country’s citizens and its creditors. Yet the experience of most countries that have undergone such reforms should tell us that this will entail more hardships for the people than for the debt holders.
That is why, regardless of the exploitative nature of the global financial system, we need to realise that the repercussions of a default will be felt most by the lower classes. We need to understand that they will be the first to come out to the streets. With a diminishing space for their aspirations, the middle-class will most likely follow them.
This is already happening here: the fertiliser crisis, import restrictions, and rising costs of living have heightened popular opposition to the government, and they have brought these groups together. Fuel, food, and gas shortages, not to mention the prospect of power cuts and the possibility of further downgrades by credit rating agencies, are burdening an already overburdened population. Any default-and-restructuring policy can only contribute to a further rise in protests and demonstrations.
The fundamental problem here is how mainstream economists are addressing these concerns. As Professor Liyanage, quoting Jerome Roos’s Why Not Default?, observes, neoliberal ideologues keep making two assumptions about international sovereign debt: one, that a government is a “representative” and free agent which negotiates on behalf of its people, and two, that a country constitutes a single entity.
Such assumptions gloss over the fact that societies are made up of various classes, that these classes mingle and clash with one another, and that in the event of austerity it is those who have the least resources who end up losing the most. Neoliberal economists leave out these points from their discussions, perhaps because that they believe that economics can be insulated from politics; that would explain why the more doctrinaire among them advise revisiting and re-implementing the policies of the J. R. Jayewardene regime.
What, then, would a viable Left strategy entail? Firstly, we need to acknowledge that debt restructuring would be painful, especially for those who have already been hit hard by the pandemic. Not all of us are in the same boat: a recent Oxfam report notes that two years of the pandemic have resulted in a doubling of wealth among the world’s top 10 billionaires, yet another sign of how obscenely unequal the system is. To ignore these realities and call for a default would, in the long run, be to give into a “reform programme” that brings more suffering and widens inequalities. This should be avoided at all costs.
Secondly, the State needs to prioritise relief to the masses. The Oxfam report debunks the myth that governments can’t offer such relief by printing money. The US Federal Reserve, for instance, has been printing trillions of dollars since the pandemic began, to revive the economy, and countries elsewhere have followed suit. This has had a significant impact on the poorer masses, though the record in some countries has been mixed.
To be sure, Sri Lanka’s upward-aspiring middle class may think that only Sri Lanka engages in distributing financial relief by printing money, and bemoan it even as they indirectly benefit from it. But the potential of money printing to help the masses tide over – an objective Basil Rajapaksa’s relief package seems to be zeroing in on – should not be lost sight of. Modern Monetary Theory is by no means a long term solution, less so a sustainable one, but insofar as it facilitates relief, it should not be dispensed with.
Thirdly, the government should negotiate credit lines from as many countries as it can go to. As I noted in an earlier piece, the pandemic, and the depletions of the country’s foreign reserves, has become the primary determinant of our foreign policy. From snubbing India and Japan, for instance, we are now trying to obtain credit from them. While China has kept a low profile lately, it may extend further credit as well, renegotiating what’s already due to her. We need to take advantage of these openings.
Printing money and fine-tuning foreign policy, though, are temporary solutions. They should be phased out in the long run, in favour of more radical reforms. This is the fourth step we should be taking, though it is one that is yet to be discussed and debated.
Take a very simple but radical proposition: printing money to build up local industries and promote exports. Critics of Modern Monetary Theory contend that more money leads to more inflation. They are not wrong: prices of essential goods have been escalating wildly over the last few months. Yet the real issue isn’t whether money should be printed at all, but for whom and for what it should be printed: a question neither advocates nor critics of money printing seem to be asking.
The fact of the matter is that money needs to be directed to productive investments, and the only way to do that is to prop up local industries and spur industrialisation. This is a policy few economists, from the Left or the Right, have prescribed, but it is one that one of the more brilliant among them, Howard Nicholas, has.
Howard Nicholas’s advice is simple enough. Countries that industrialised faster than others have managed to reduce trade deficits and achieve export-led growth. Vietnam is a case in point here. Though mainstream economists contend that it was its decision to liberalise trade which facilitated faster growth, it was actually its industrial policy, combined with the phased out opening up of its sectors, which did so in the long run.
Dr Nicholas’s argument is a rejoinder to advocates of free markets and of mere import substitution, which may be why he has come in for criticism from both sides. But as Dushni Weerakoon of the IPS has noted, industrialisation can and indeed should form a crucial part of the solution, provided it’s buttressed with an enlightened tariff regime.
The bottom line to all this is that defaulting is not the answer to our problems. Defaulting may be the preferred way out for market fundamentalists and even certain leftists, but it’s definitely not the way out for the country. Opting for such a strategy would mean imposing greater austerity on the masses, which this government, mindful of its electoral prospects, will want to avoid at all costs. Dushni Weerakoon’s point, in that sense, is spot on: the debt restructuring option suits countries with a reputation for defaults, like Ecuador, but not so countries like Sri Lanka. Any “permanent solution”, then, would necessarily have to focus on the longer term. Industrialisation may well point us in that direction.
The writer can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Brown lives matter, too
By Basab Dasgupta
The most disruptive and divisive series of events that I have seen during my life in the US was what happened after George Floyd’s death while in police custody in Minnesota in 2020.Widespread protests and violence, destruction of businesses, surge of Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement, attack on police officers, call to defund the police which in turn led to an increase in criminal activities in big cities, burning of American flags all continued for months. It turned the clock back decades as far as the racial harmony between blacks and whites was concerned.
I must confess that I failed to be too sympathetic towards this movement. I strongly felt that the need for law enforcement is one of our top-most priorities and statistically speaking, there would be more black arrests because crimes are rampant in pre-dominantly black neighbourhoods. I thought that the police officer Derek Chauvin was doing his job in his effort to subdue George Floyd a known criminal with a long rap sheet. Yes, he might have used excessive force but that may have been explained by the situation. Even black conservative commentators like Candace Owens were critical of all the anti-establishment activities.
As part of my dislike for the BLM movement, I was intensely against all woke activism including football player Colin Köpenick’s refusal to stand during national anthems, Hollywood’s encouragement to make more racially inclusive movies featuring more black actors, Joe Biden’s choice for Vice President and Supreme Court judge nominee, combination of BLM with LGBTQ+ movements under the rainbow flag and the entire mantra of “diversity and inclusivity”.
My views changed almost overnight a few days ago when I heard the news of a 23-year-old graduate student, Jaahnavi Kandula of Indian origin, being run over by a police car in Seattle while crossing the street. The accident happened on 23 January 2023, but the video from the bodycam of a police officer was just released. The car was being driven by Kevin Dave who was on an emergency call and driving at 74 mph in a zone with 25 mph speed limit.
There was a photograph of the girl so cute, so innocent, so full of optimism for a bright future; she was going to graduate in December. Tears came to my eyes thinking of my own daughter at that age and the heartbreak of the girl’s parents.
It was shocking and horrific, but such tragic accidents do happen every day in America, and I could shrug it off as another act of God that I would never understand. However, the worst part was the comment of one of the police officers. It was reported that a police officer Daniel Auderer, who happens to be the vice president of the Seattle Police Officers’ Guild, laughed at the incident and made comments like “It’s a regular person”, “there is not much value to her life”, “just write a check for $11000” during a call to Mike Solan, the president of the guild. This was all caught on the body cam video.
I could not believe what I was reading and went to YouTube to see if the video had been posted. Sure enough, I found multiple clips, each containing the comments and laughter. It was not some mumbling and giggling; comments were loud and clear.
The chilling part was the laughter. It was evil, it was as if Satan himself was laughing. It was sickening. Equally shocking was what happened after the incident was brought to the attention of superiors. Daniel reportedly confessed to making those comments but explained away his reaction by claiming that he was laughing not at the dead girl but at how the lawyers would now jump into action arguing about “value of life”. Nothing happened to the officers, not even a suspension for a few days.
The decision was that there was no need to hold Kevin guilty or initiate a criminal investigation. Despite a suspicion that Kevin was under the influence of drugs, Daniel vindicated him by lying on his behalf that he was travelling at 50 mph, a manageable speed for a trained driver, and he was not impaired the so-called “blue wall of silence”.
Daniel was obviously stupid to minimize the value of this girl’s life. I am sure that he did not know that the current President of India is a woman in a country which also elected a woman prime minister in the largest democratic country almost 60 years ago. He does not know that some of the most important positions in the world today are held by Indian women, such as the Assistant Director General of WHO and chief economist of IMF. He probably did not know how to distinguish a woman of Indian origin from other women of colour.
He could not have any appreciation for a young woman coming here for higher studies leaving her family behind so that she could get a good job and help her family live a better life.
As I started to digest the whole episode, it gradually dawned on me. This police officer may not be an isolated example. Many of the other 600,000+ policemen probably share a similar background and attitude. Daniel is a bully, a racist, an uneducated person and brazen enough to openly make such statements because he is used to making such comments.
This is perhaps not surprising. Who wants to be a policeman? Clearly, he must be physically fit and strong. He cannot be well-educated because then he would have chosen a different profession. Who else would want to risk his life every day? He must be a bully because his job is to track down criminals. He is a racist because he has seen in his job that there are more people of colour who are arrested for suspicion of a crime. He probably grew up in an equally uneducated and unsophisticated family environment. We probably only get people like him to join the force.
The policemen in this country supposedly go through regular sensitivity training on race-related issues and how to be objective. Clearly expense for such training is being wasted in Seattle.
I immediately thought of the BLM movement. Suddenly, I understood the rage and frustration of all the African American people joining the movement. I can now believe that the black folks are indeed stopped in much larg-er proportion than their white counterparts for minor offenses. I now believe that police have a very low assessment of their lives. I now believe in stories of police abuse and brutality.
I do not know how the Indian government or the Indian American community will react to this incident. I read headlines like “Biden Administration has promised swift action” and numerous comments expressing outrage and disgust below every YouTube post. Some are demanding “accountability”, but what does it mean? Should the police officer be fired? Should he be tried in a court of law like Derek? Should the police union be dismantled? Indians are peaceful people; they are not going to protest at the State capitol or burn police cars. I suspect that nothing will happen to Kevin or Daniel and the incident will gradually be forgotten.
What can I do? Should I join the BLM movement and encourage its leaders to generalize the name “BLM” to include Brown lives matter? I am sure that Mexicans will join in that effort. Should I say, “Enough with America” and go back to India? Should I organize a protest in front of a local police station? (The Statesman/ANN)
Today I just write to release my anger and to see if “a pen is mightier than a sword”.
(The writer, a physicist who worked in industry and academia, is a Bengali settled in America.)
Politicos junketing while ordinaries are sinking in COL mire
There was a pall of silence over who accompanied our President to the Big Apple for the Big Meeting of the United Nations. Hence our curiosity was roused, minds scratched around for news. Cassandra WhatsApped a good friend of hers now living in California and asked her whether she knew who accompanied our Prez.
We thought in these hard times only the very essential and relevant to the occasion VIPs would be taken along: a lean contingent would be Prez Wckremesinghe’s orders. Cassandra hurried to her computer and googled. Plenty on President Ranil Wickremasinghe’s address to the UN General Assembly on 21 Sept., which was on the theme, “Rebuilding trust and reigniting solidarity and its relevance to Sri Lanka’s recent challenges.” Reading many articles Cass gathered that Prez RW had dealt with the country’s economic and other travails; global geopolitical landscape; climate action taken and to be taken; carbon reduction et al in his address at UNGA.
It was stated in one article that the Prez was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Sabry, Secretary to the President E M S B Ekanayake, Foreign Secretary Aruni Wijewardena and other senior officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. So, she rested her mind that no extraneous hangers-on had accompanied the Prez.
Then came a newspaper write up that MPs Rohitha Abeygunewardena and Mahindananda Aluthgamage were in the contingent – stalwarts of the SLPP. What use were they in the context of the topics on which the Prez made his UN address? Were they experts on any issues that would have been discussed at side meetings? Experts on economics, geopolitical matters, climate change, balance of world power? NO! It seemed to be a pure (or rather impure) peace-making gesture and to keep quiet two demanders for Cabinet positions.
Sops to Cerberus in the way of a plane ride to and from, and a stay in one of the more expensive hotels in the Big Apple? Can you believe that the MPs and two die-hard Pohottu MPs and previous ministers want a joy ride and will do anything to get one? Also, that we poor Sri Lankans, suffering such slings and arrows of bad fortune in a bankrupt country with soaring prices to be paid for even the water we drink, food we so niggardly eat and electricity we so sparingly use have paid for these two to junket? We have to fork out taxes, even those with nothing to show as assets. And where does a huge amount of this collected money go? To pay for pleasure junkets for those we feel have no right to go to the UN General Assembly.
When Mahinda Rajapaksa was the President, he would take a huge group of persons who in the majority were completely redundant and of no use at all to these UN General Assembly annual gatherings. A worker in the UN in New York commented that most of those who went along dispersed soon after they had landed, in a fleet of cars hired for the visit, making a vehicle-hiring Sri Lankan in the US rich. Most of them were not even present when the Sri Lankan president made his address.
At least, they could have helped to reduce the mass of empty seats in the UN Assembly hall. Thus, it was surmised that he was repaying his catchers for being loyal to him – at our expense. No dissent, whether loud or soft, then. No one dared question why or wherefores. No one wanted to be taken on a white van ride; or worse, taken on the final journey. Cassandra must add here that a couple of brave women journos did speak up.
And to think there was a replay of this junketing in 2023, though reduced, under a Prez who understands well the plight the country is in and the need to save every rupee of government money. However, junketing was offered at the country’s expense. And by order of Prez RW. The two mentioned are very rich politicians.
Cassandra experienced a happening that showed her how wary people are now, and untrusting. It is a natural outcome of the type of person the Sri Lankan is thought to be in these much-changed times. Do you remember when even in Middle East airports the Sri Lankan passport was treated with utter disdain and suspicion? Cass recalls that en route to Britain she had her passport and other Sri Lankan travellers’ passports confiscated on entry to the airport in Dubai and handed back only when the plane was re-boarding. She squirmed with embarrassment and resentment, but realised it was all because Sri Lankans had behaved shamefully dishonest and thus all Sri Lankans were branded untrustworthy.
Cass bought some tickets to enjoy a singing and dancing of Julius Caesar. The thousands she gave the young girl were found to be short. Saying she would get the balance from her driver, she instinctively took the tickets and was about to step out when she noticed the consternation of the box office girl. Suspicion, she realised, that she would not return. Cass apologised, placed the tickets on the counter, went out to get the Rs 500 needed and then, retrieving her tickets, commented it was so sad that the young one could not trust this old dame. She assured her it was no fault of hers; she was doing her duty, but people nowadays had killed the trust that was a given in years gone by. Even an absolutely honest and honourable person, grey-haired maybe and dignified, is treated with suspicion. What a sad state of affairs! But we ourselves are to blame since cheating and dishonesty are strong features of the present-day islanders of the Pearl of the Indian Ocean.
Use heart, know heart
By Dr Mohan Jayatilake Consultant Cardiologist
Every year on the 29th of September, World Heart day is observed to raise awareness about cardiovascular disease (CVD), which is heart diseases and strokes. As heart diseases are a leading cause of death in the world people must be educated about them and the timely prevention to achieve this goal. World Heart day commenced in 1999 through the joint efforts of World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Heart Federation (WHF).
The theme of the World Heart Day 2023 is “Use Heart, Know Heart” emphasizing the importance of healthcare worldwide. This year’s campaign focuses on the essential step of knowing your heart first. The World Heart Federation has created this day to raise awareness about cardiovascular diseases.
The key message of World Heart Day this year aims to encourage people to look after themselves, others and nature as well. Putting a coordinated effort to improve ones’ own lifestyle and diet and motivating others to do the same can lead to a reduced number of CVD cases.
Heart diseases and strokes are the worlds’ leading cause of death claiming 17.9 million lives every year. According to WHO statistics 82% of deaths coming in from low and middle income countries are due to lack of resources.
Since a healthy heart is the gateway to a healthy life it is important to ensure the health of your heart. With the growing number of heart patients worldwide it has become a cause of concern since of late.The day is observed by organising events worldwide to make people aware about the warning signs of heart disease so that people can take steps accordingly to avoid this disease.
Together with members of WHF spread the news that at least 80% of premature deaths from heart disease and strokes could be avoided if main risk factors such as heavy smoking, unhealthy diet, reduced physical activity (sedentary lifestyle), stressful lifestyle, psychological issues, hypertension, diabetic and heavy alcoholism are controlled. Being obese and overweight, BMI (Body Mass Index) more than 25, is found to be one of the main risk factors that may harm your heart. Air pollution also can lead to coronary artery disease and stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer as short term and long term effects.
Fortunately now we have almost come out of COVID 19 pandemic which caused more vulnerable patients having severe cardiovascular events.
Events of the World Heart Day 2023
There are numerous events at the national and international level promoted by WHF. They disseminate information and hold discussions of various heart ailments at different platforms. Some of them like posters, podcasts and forums are quite popular. The day is marked by providing free fitness check-ups, fundraises, walks, runs, concerts and sporting events. All such events encourage people to stay active and be aware of their health.
Global leaders recognise the urgency to give priority to prevention and control of heart diseases and other non-communicable diseases (NCD).Which include cancer, diabetic, and chronic lung diseases.
How to contribute to observance of the event on World Heart Day
By undergoing heart health check at a center near you.
By managing your weight and keeping BMI index under control with less than 25.
By trying to stay active through different physical activities
By attending seminars to learn about different life saving activities like CPR
By attending fitness lectures and lessons of healthy living
According to this year theme also, use your heart for the betterment of others’ heart, by taking following steps to reduce the burden of heart disease. Stop smoking – Cigarette smokers are 2 to 4 times more prone to get heart diseases and strokes than non-smokers. Passive smoking inside the house will also harm your own heart and your family health, causing cardiovascular disease.
Avoid alcohol – Stressful conditions in life can lead to use of alcohol and smoking. Meditation, yoga, music or involvement with any other aesthetic will help to minimize stress and to move away from alcohol.
Healthy diet at home
Limit saturated fats and trans fats
Limit salt and sugar intake
Consume plenty of fruits and vegetables
Unhealthy diet is one of the main causes of obesity, diabetic and cardiovascular diseases. Rapid urbanisation, changing lifestyle and easy access of fast food have made the dietary pattern unhealthy.
Animal products mainly beef, pork and poultry with skin, mutton, lard, butter, cheese carry lot of saturated fats. Avoid having trans fats which are in baked, processed and fried food items, certain margarines and spreads. Take lean meats, poultry without skin, low fat dairy products, fish and nuts with vegetable oil in moderation.
Adults should do at least 150 minutes of moderately intensive physical activity or at least 75 minutes of high intensive physical activity per week. Families should limit the amount of time spent in front of TV or continuous reading to less than 2 hours a day in a seated position. Exercises should be a regular part of life.
World is now facing visible epidemic of obesity. It affects your cardiovascular health and also affect your wellbeing.To lose weight, do regular exercises, have healthy diet, cut down starch and sugar and alcohol. Have plenty of fruits and vegetables.
Psychological health can affect your cardio vascular health. Regular exercise and practice relaxation, reading, being with friends and family, adequate sleep, various hobbies maintain the positive attitude towards stress free life.
Know your numbers
Visit your doctor or health care professional, check your blood pressure regularly and take steps to control it and take regular medication.Know your cholesterol- high cholesterol is another factor for cardiovascular disease. Check regularly and control with dietary measures and medication. Know your blood sugar- Diabetic is another major factor for cardiovascular disease. Diet control, medication and professional advice required to control it.
Know your warning signs
To know the symptoms of CVD will help your survival because earlier the treatment better the chances of survival. Chest pain of tightening or burning in nature with pain radiating down the upper limbs or to the neck and jaw or back, associated with sweating and nausea are your warning signs.
Sudden weakness of limbs, slurring of speech, deviation of mouth, double vision could be due to a stroke. Knowing these symptoms and seeking urgent medical attention allow you to get treatment early to prevent life threatening complications.
Take your medicine regularly and correctly
If you are already diagnosed with heart disease or with stroke, taking your medication regularly will reduce another similar episode in future.
Breast feeding and lifelong health
Breast feeding is the best form of nutrition for newborn and infants according to WHO. Increasing public awareness is important. Infants who are breastfed tend to have lower cholesterol and blood pressure as well as lower rates of obesity.
Both undernourished and over nourished early in life can increase the risk of developing cardio vascular diseases. Maternal obesity during pregnancy has been associated with obesity in children which also increase the cardiovascular disease risk.
As always our emphasis will be on improving heart health across all nations in adult male and female as well as children. By adopting lifestyle changes, people all over the world can have longer and better lives through the prevention and control of heart disease and stroke. This was highlighted on this most important day to persuade people on maintain a healthy lifestyle.
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