An urgent need for political and social stability
‘Economic emergency’ an interview/discussion with the new Governor of the Central Bank – Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe, Secretary to the Sri Lanka Treasury, Mr. K. M. M. Siriwardana, Vice Chairman of the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, Mr. Duminda Hulangamuwa, and Prof. Hema Thilakasisri, broadcast on Rupavahini on Friday (8.4.22) night, was probably one of the most instructive discussions heard with regard to the current Sri Lankan economic crisis. This discussion should be recast on all the channels a number of times, so that everyone gets an opportunity to listen to it. Without pointing fingers, and political hyperbole, one gets an explanation as to how we have arrived at this juncture, and the seriousness of the economic calamity that is facing us, as well an inkling of how to get out of it.
In a nutshell, we do not have enough dollars to honour the loans that we have taken, nor do we have enough dollars for our future essential purchases. Therefore, we need to urgently restructure our debt, so that these loans can be paid over a longer period of time; and we need to create a situation where we are able to raise further loans and revenue, in order to avoid a complete economic collapse. This needs to happen under the auspices of the IMF. To put it differently, these shortages we are having today – be it electricity, gas, diesel, etc…will continue till we can stabilize our economy, and if this stabilization is further delayed there will be a complete collapse of the economy.
For the economy to be stabilized and brought back to ‘keel’ as it were, apart from the Central Bank/Finance Ministry plan, two other things need to happen. Firstly, there needs to be a ‘stable government’ in place, to begin with and continue negotiations under the auspices of the IMF to restructure our debt and organize future loans, etc. Secondly, and almost immediately, there needs to be social stability, in order to create an environment which is conducive for ‘dollars’ to come into the country. This is further supported by the news item – ‘Social turmoil Lanka’s biggest risk, ex-World Bank official ‘, in the Sunday Island edition of 10.4.22 by the former chief economist of the South Asia regions at the World Bank, Shanta Devarajan.
Unfortunately, at this juncture we have neither political nor social stability. There is little doubt that at this moment, we as a nation are disillusioned with the present presidency/government. Hundreds upon thousands are on the road today, in protest against the current government’s inability to provide what are considered basic amenities in the modern world – be it electricity, gas, petrol, diesel, etc.
The entire Opposition seems to be of a single mind, hell bent on trying to oust the current government, whatever the consequences to the country. They are asking /encouraging/campaigning for the people to step on to the road ‘to force’ the current President to resign and the Rajapaksas et al to go home.
However, there are several critical aspects in this equation, that the Opposition members (and some civil groups) are blatantly ignoring or to give the benefit of the doubt, have not considered this.
Firstly, the people are not only asking for the President and the Rajapaksa clan to go home; they are also asking the entire 225 MPs to go home as well. A very convincing case of selective blindness and deafness among the members of the Opposition.
Secondly, if all the members and the President go home, who is there to govern the country? There is a misunderstanding among the members of the Opposition that the people are asking them to rule! Please make no mistake, no one is asking for the SJB or the JVP to take over the government.
Thirdly, a new President and a new government will not change the underlying economic crisis and the impending economic disaster.
Fourthly, as discussed at the ‘Economic emergency’, this political stability and social stability needs to happen NOW. As far as approaching the IMF, etc…we are already LATE. We do not have the time to rehash a constitution and/or organize elections.
editorial of April 04, ‘Help others save us’, in its usual no-nonsense style, has demonstrated, yet again the urgent need for an interim government. Hats off to Minister Ali Sabry, who said he has taken this job as Finance Minister because there was no one else, and if there is someone else who can do a better job to please take over. The Opposition needs to show that they understand the ground reality. Form an ‘interim government’ across all parties, so that the first step (political stability) that is needed to solve this crisis can be taken.
The next step is social stability. The President and the party leaders – of the ‘interim government’- need to address the people. Assure them that they are heard, and that once this crisis is sorted out or while it is being sorted out, if that is possible, there will be a serious, genuine discussion with them. The necessary changes to the Constitution, electoral system, requirements of future elected members, running of the Parliament, an independent audit to assess members’ finances, etc…will be established, and that you– all 225- will step down allowing the people to decide how their /our country is to be governed.
Therefore, till that time comes –i.e. till we are out of this crisis – advise the public, to please go home and allow the necessary social stability to take place in order for us to come out of this crisis. This should be backed by all civil societies/organisations as well, if they genuinely care about the welfare of this country and its people.
It is imperative for us to realise that all of us are together in this crisis –not just you or I.
Dr. SUMEDHA S. AMARASEKARA
Demystifying Buddhism: Need of the hour?
by Dr Upul Wijayawardhana
Mystification is undoubtedly one of the most effective techniques adopted by all religions to ensure that their followers toe the line. After all, who wants to go against religion and face eternal damnation? However, the world has moved on since the inception of all religions and now even scientists agree that there is nothing permanent; not even the universe! By the way, impermanence as a key concept was introduced by the Buddha more than two and half millennia ago. At the moment there is global concern over yet another creation of the human mind: Artificial Intelligence!
Some industry leaders are warning that AI would wipe out humanity, joining nuclear war and pandemics which are the leading contenders to do the same. Geoffrey Hinton, so-called ‘Godfather of AI’ resigned from his job at Google stating that the tools he helped create may be used to end civilisation. AI language tools such as ChatGPT are already being used by students to cheat but would someone go a step further and use similar tools to weaponise ‘fake news’ or develop deadly chemical weapons? One can argue that religion can play an important moderating role in preventing such things happening but, on the other hand, it could be questioned whether they can do so if religions are removed from reality by mysticism?
Perhaps, all religions need demystification but I shall confine myself to Buddhism as it is the only religion I know a bit about. Further, I fear any criticism of other religions may earn me the reputation of someone attempting to promote religious discord. We live in a world, which is becoming increasingly intolerant of free speech whilst clamouring for the same! Oxford Union, once the bastion of free speech, nearly stopped Philosophy professor Kathleen Stock from expressing her view that trans women were not women.
Having failed to cancel the event, transgender activists attempted to sabotage her presentation. Interestingly, they did not attempt to challenge her views instead, perhaps because they are bereft of facts! Though we Buddhists do not do so often, the Buddha gave us the freedom of thought and promulgated the Dhamma by means of discussion. The Buddha was in search of the nature of reality and it perplexes me why and how the religion built around those teachings is full of mysticism. Though it may have served some purpose in the past, my contention is that the time is ripe for demystification.
The month of Poson is of special significance to us, Sri Lankan Buddhists, as according to ancient chronicles Buddhism was formally introduced, on the full moon day of this month 2270 years ago by Arahant Mahinda who was the son and emissary of Mauryan Emperor Ashoka. Though it is very likely that Buddhism spread to Sri Lanka from India much earlier, Arahant Mahinda’s visit resulted in the embracing of Buddhism by King Devanampiyatissa and Sri Lanka becoming a Buddhist country, officially. Arahant Mahinda established Bhikkhu Sasana and as there was a clamour to establish Bhikkhuni Sasana, his sister Sanghamitta followed six months later, carrying with her a sapling of the Bodhi tree, under which the Buddha attained enlightenment. The famous writer H G Wells in the chapter, “The Rise and Spread of Buddhism” in his 1920 book “The Outline of History” refers to this as follows:
“In Ceylon there grows to this day a tree, the oldest historical tree in the world, which we know certainly to have been planted as a cutting from the Bodhi-Tree in the year 245 BC. From that time to this it has been carefully tended and watered.”
Whilst Sanghamitta story tells us that she travelled by land and sea, landing in Jaffna, Arhant Mahinda, who came to Sri Lanka with seven others, including two close relatives; Sumana Samanera, the son of Sanghamitta and Bhanduka Upasaka, the son of his maternal aunt’s daughter, is supposed to have arrived by supernatural means. Is this another instance of mystification! Even if one assumes that Arahants had developed the supernatural power of teleportation, it does not explain how a samanera and upasaka travelled, as an Arahant is not likely to have the ability tag along another person in teleportation.
In fact, Arahant Mahinda’s visit was a much-planned visit and was postponed till the death of King Mutasiva as it was felt that the aging king would not be able to grasp the complex concepts of Buddhism. This makes it very likely that the dramatic meeting described in ancient texts is nothing but a mystification. Anyway, how Arahant Mahinda arrived with others does not matter. What is important is that there is plenty of archaeological evidence to prove that both Arahants Mahinda and Sanghamitta lived in Sri Lanka till their deaths, serving our ancestors. Therefore, they deserved to be remembered on Poson and Unduvap Poya Days, respectively.
The Buddha showed us the way to overcome the sense of dissatisfaction that pervades all aspects of life and also the power of the mind. He showed us the way we could develop our mind and introduced the concept of mindfulness. He showed the path for ultimate detachment. What happened subsequently was converting this Dhamma to a religion by enveloping it in rituals and mysticisms; very practices denounced by the Buddha.
Instead of accepting the Buddha as a normal human being but with an exceptional intellect, he was made supernatural by mystifying his life. He walked immediately after his birth and said it was his last birth. This is mysticism mixed with predetermination but what follows is the truth. In spite of all the luxuries, with increasing dissatisfaction with life, Prince Siddhartha leaves lay life in search of the underlying cause of dissatisfaction. He experiments with extreme torture to the body, a method very popular among sages at the time, which he finds of no use and discovers the Middle Path, the Four Noble Truths and the Noble Eightfold Path.
The Buddha walked the length and breadth of India barefoot, washing his feet himself, when he entered a house. This message of simple living dedicated to the service of others is distorted and some of the Sangha today live in the lap of luxury and indulge in every activity the Buddha advised them against.
The Buddha’s Dhamma explains a path to tread on, and studying how he explored the mind to arrive at this itself gives so much academic satisfaction. Teaching this would ennoble our youth but what is often heard in Bana preachings or lectures are mystical stories or gross distortions, the best example being Dana: giving is a means to getting rid of attachment but is portrayed as a means of guaranteed returns thus increasing greed. I can go on and on.
If Buddhism is to survive, we need to understand and practise what the Buddha taught. The first step in this process is demystifying it so that we may understand the true nature of things.
Artificial intelligence and reality of life
by Dr D. Chandraratna
Ever since President Ranil Wickremesinghe announced his desire to use Artificial intelligence (AI) to develop all sectors, from banking to agriculture, in Sri Lanka several correspondents have enthusiastically endorsed those sentiments in the print media. There is no gainsaying that technology has already made huge inroads into our lives, the latest paradigm adopted and articulated by the developed countries is thrust upon all mankind as the harbinger of a beautiful new world. Just as in an earlier time when the liberative potential of science created an understandable anguish about its misuse, similar forebodings are felt about the future curated by the super machines. Though unlike in the earlier debates where the misuse was calculated in terms of unlikely human catastrophes the current anguish is more about its ever -present transformative potential of the human world.
Most of the developed countries in the Western world, and Australia have launched statutory guidelines in the ethical use of AI. The Chat GPT, it has been cautioned in some quarters, poses such a risk to humanity that it must be subject to stringent regulation as nuclear power. Open AI founder Sam Altman has said that within a decade AI system would be capable of exceeding human expert skill levels in every domain. Given its possibility to be powerful than all other technologies experts predict that AI poses an existential risk like nuclear energy and synthetic biology. Silicon Valley experts are talking the need for a global regulatory body like the international Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
In the field of education, it risks accuracy and reliability of knowledge, the sources of information, academic integrity, student learning capabilities ending up with a humanity’s self-perception. Six months after Open AI launched ChatGPT, Australian University teachers have stated that they are unable to prove students who cheat with AI because still there is no regulatory body. At a conference held in Sydney last week Senior academics have railed against AI as ‘a tool in education’ because of ethical concerns, built in biases, fake knowledge and hate speech. AI is also generating enormous wealth through education in the hands of a few white male billionaires who are living off surplus value created mostly by brown and black workers.
One Deakin University academic has said it is only a data exchange service and an academic from Macquarie University said that ChatGPT app could easily be used by weak students to obtain enough marks to pass examination. Teachers may have to use open assessments and other examination methods to evaluate students. Students may be tempted to undermine their own desire to acquire knowledge in preference to the attraction of credentials to further their career prospects. Given the fact there is in the developed world a phenomenon of ‘degree inflation’ the quality and value of higher education will diminish. If cheating with the help of AI increases one’s chances of gaining the credentials thereby reducing the lure of understanding many students will not scruple to do so.
It is also the case that AI has the potential to make many employment opportunities ‘surplus to requirements’ in the knowledge economy for AI is efficient and cost cutting. Data analytic employment in multiple industry sectors will vanish overnight. Because of the fears of ChatGPT share prices of many education organisations have plummeted overnight. With the announcement of the ChatGPT, US company Chegg, which produces homework study guides, lost heavily on the stock market with more than half its workforce facing retrenchment.
There are other dangers. The value of education as character building, knowing yourself, examining one’s life, becoming wise, which are the wider objectives of education lose their appeal. Education is reduced to a process of credentialising to make us employable. AI is driven by a few mega corporations whose commercial motives are not aligned with the wider purposes of education beyond the why and the how. Education in the AI era will be concentrating on skills for employability. It can change the current paradigm of education. AI has the potential to cultivate a narcissistic and misguided anti-intellectualism which can shut out reasoned debate on public issues.
This existential threat to our sense of personal autonomy and human agency cannot be ignored. We must legislate to protect those aspects of humanity that are exclusively human and vitally important to the functioning of democratic communities. We should be alert to the fact that AI cannot replace nuance. It is soulless, cannot feel pain or loss, has no heart and no intuition. AI like all replacements to the original will disappoint us at the crucial hour for it cannot replace years of experience, innate ability, and intuitive wisdom.
Palm oil growers await green light for sustainable production
By Emeritus Prof. Asoka Nugawela
Palm oil is a versatile commodity. It is used in numerous products world over. The global usage in 2022/23 is estimated as 76 million metric tons. Accordingly, the average global per capita usage is in the range of 10 kg per annum. Sri Lanka too recorded similar usage during 2018/2019 period, prior to economic downturn in the country. Palm oil usage is very much higher than the usage of other vegetable oils such as coconut, soya, canola, sunflower, rape seed and olive. One major reason for the relatively high per capita usage of palm oil is the affordability to purchase and its availability. Per unit land area, the oil production is four times greater in oil palm when compared with coconut. When comparing with other crops grown for vegetable oil production it is about tenfold higher. Further, oil palm, coconut and olive are perennial crops whereas soya, sunflower, canola and rape seed are short term crops. With short term crops the capital cost component is relatively high with yearly land clearing, land preparation and planting activities to be undertaken. Oil palm with a high oil yield and having a 30-year economic life cycle has the ability to provide a relatively cheaper vegetable oil than from other crops. With perennial crops the disturbance to the soil properties and biodiversity is less than in annuals and is a positive attribute as far as sustainability is concerned.
One other reason for palm oil to be the preferred vegetable oil is because it contains both saturated and unsaturated fatty acids in almost equal proportions. Thus, it is different from coconut and other vegetable oils which contain a relatively high percentage of unsaturated fatty acids, around 90%. Palm oil with its 1:1 balance of saturated and unsaturated fatty acids is the preferred choice for many applications in the food industry.
Both the type and the number of fatty acids of fat in our diets are known to influence health and wellbeing. The present global advice is to increase the consumption of unsaturated fatty acids at the expense of saturated oils and fats. For optimal health we require a mixture of fatty acids to be present in our diet. In this context among the sources of dietary oils and fats palm oil could be viewed as a relatively better option for its ‘mixed’ fatty acid profile (saturated, mono and polyunsaturated fatty acids).
The relative advantage in the return on investment the oil palm crop is having over other plantations crops also drives the investments towards this crop. This is true for both plantation and smallholder sectors in major palm oil producing countries in the world. The profitability from different plantation crops grown in Sri Lanka under average management conditions and current agrochemical/material costs & trading conditions are summarised in Table 1. Accordingly, oil palm is by far the most profitable plantation crop in the country. (See table)
The country has a demand for palm oil as a cooking oil and also as a raw material for many other industries. The products made in these industries are essential and widely used. For vigorous growth and high yields oil palm crop should ideally be grown under tropical climatic conditions with more than 2,500 mm of rainfall per annum. The low country wet zone of the country is blessed with such climatic conditions. The return on investment is high with this crop. However, even under such a favorable business environment for this industry, the government of Sri Lanka has taken a decision to ban cultivating this crop in the country. All other palm oil producing countries in the world, i.e., more than 20, are surprised and view this as a wrong decision.
Some repercussions of this decision to ban oil palm cultivation in Sri Lanka are a). dependency on other countries to fulfill our vegetable oil need, b). loss of foreign exchange to the country by importing palm oil, c). loss of income to the potential investors, d). loss of employment opportunities and e). depriving potential smallholders, the opportunity to enhance their livelihood. Prior to the economic crisis in this country, around 200,000 MT of crude palm oil (CPO) had been imported annually. The current global market price of a metric ton of crude palm oil is around 900 US$. Thus, the foreign exchange requirement to import national crude palm oil requirement will be more than 180 million US$ per annum without freight and insurance costs.
In the past, forests have been felled to cultivate oil palm in some major palm oil producing countries. The same approach was adopted for planting other plantation crops as well in the past. Deforestation will invariably lead to further shrinking of already depleted forest cover and loss of environmental services we accrue from natural forests. Natural forests significantly contribute to depleting of greenhouses gases, to the natural water cycle and protects biodiversity, soil, catchment areas, rivers and water bodies. Due to serious negative impacts of deforestation on the environment, a worldwide lobby demanding countries to grow oil palm in a more sustainable manner was initiated. With this lobby changes are now taking place in the manner in which land is selected to grow oil palm. For most crops including oil palm, systems to certify sustainable plantation management have evolved and such certification has become a requirement for marketing of produce from plantations. Basically, issues related to cultivating oil palm had been identified, awareness created amongst parties concerned and interventions for rectification have been put in place. In Sri Lanka however, to start with there was no issue of deforestation associated with oil palm cultivation. The land for cultivating oil palm in Sri Lanka was obtained through crop diversification, a scientifically accepted approach. Even then cultivating of oil palm in Sri Lanka was suddenly banned by the government incurring the investors a loss of more than Rs. 500 million on nursery plants alone. The global lobby was against felling forests to plant oil palm. The reasons for the anti-oil palm lobby in Sri Lanka according to some environmentalists, scientists and politicians are negative impacts to the environment, loss of biodiversity, depleting soil water and threat to the existence of other plantation crops. There is no scientific basis for such allegations. But those who lobby against planting oil palm do not want to understand the difference between ecological impacts when planting oil palm subsequent to felling natural forest cover and as a crop diversification program. Various attempts made had been futile and as the Sinhala saying goes it’s like trying to wake up a person who pretends to be sleeping.
The necessity for a country to produce its own needs is more than evident now with the economic crisis the country is facing currently. With a huge disparity in outflow and inflow of foreign exchange to the country the need to produce our own requirements are very much obvious. As explained earlier in this article Sri Lanka has a conducive business environment for a successful palm oil industry. What is lacking to drive the industry forward in the country is the political will. Politicians may be fearing that a decision to lift the ban on oil palm cultivation will not be a popular decision affecting their vote base. Countries economy is currently shrinking leading significant losses in employment, falling income levels, increased inequality and government borrowings. To recover from such an economic crisis the country should not ignore viable industries that could enhance national production. A reversal to the decision to ban oil palm cultivation will lead to producing national requirement preventing the outflow of millions of dollars each year. Revenue moving out will circulate among all stakeholders of the industry helping to enhance their livelihood and strengthening the economy of the country.
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