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An October Surprise

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By Gwynne Dyer

An ‘October Surprise’ in the United States is now almost inevitable, because that will be Donald Trump’s last chance to get re-elected legitimately. He might try to cling to office even if he loses the vote, but it would be a lot easier and neater if he actually won a majority in the Electoral College on 3 November.

‘October Surprise’ is the American political term for a fake crisis, usually involving foreigners, that is ‘discovered’ by a president trailing badly in the polls in the last few weeks before an election. All other issues are forgotten, Americans rally around the flag, and the incumbent wins on a surge of patriotism. Or that’s the theory, at least.

The same thing happens elsewhere too, of course, and not necessarily in October. That’s when it needs to happen in to win a US presidential election, but there’s a ‘July Surprise’ happening in Belarus right now (because the election there is set for 9 August).

Last week Alexander Lukashenko, the strongman who rules Belarus, ‘discovered’ Russian mercenaries in his country. They were unarmed and on their way to Istanbul, but Lukashenko says there is a plot: “So far there is no open warfare, no shooting, the trigger has not yet been pulled, but an attempt to organise a massacre in the centre of Minsk is already obvious.” Only I can save our country! Vote for me!

Trump will need something like that because otherwise the coronavirus is going to kill him politically. This was not true as recently as early June, because up until then the United States was not performing especially badly in dealing with the pandemic.

It LOOKED a lot worse because of Trump’s bizarre behaviour – the endless, shameless lies, the narcissism, the suggestions that people should inject bleach, etc. – but in terms of Covid-19 deaths per million people the American fatality rate was still lower than any other major Western countries except Germany and Canada.

The United States was late to go into lockdown, but so were they all, at least compared to most Asian countries. Until recently, if you were a Trump supporter, you could still believe he was doing a good job.

It was Trump’s rush to end the lockdown, not all the earlier nonsense, that did the real damage. He believed that he would lose the election if the economy didn’t revive, but by opening up too fast he managed to revive the pandemic at the same time.

The numbers tell the tale. This week America will record its 160,000th death from Covid-19. That’s almost a quarter of all the coronavirus deaths in the world. Much worse, US deaths are still going up while deaths elsewhere in the developed world have fallen steeply. That’s almost entirely due to Trump.

Take Canada, for example. It’s very similar to the US in economy and demography, but different in social and political terms. Canada has universal health care and a much less drastic divide between the rich and the rest, for example, which probably explains why America’s cumulative death rate per million is 484, while Canada’s is only 237.

The history is therefore an American death rate twice as high as Canada’s: not great, but structurally inevitable. By now, however, Canada has managed to get its deaths down to 10 a day, whereas America is back up around a 1,000 a day.

Even allowing for Canada’s much smaller population, that is 10 times worse. This is what coming out of lockdown too early did to the United States, and it is all down to Donald Trump.

The pandemic is raging again in the United States, and there may be a quarter-million deaths there by election day in November. US ‘deaths per million’ are going up three per day, which means that the US will overtake Chile (now 509) in less than two weeks, Italy (582) in a month, Spain (609) in five weeks. It might even catch up with the UK (682) by election day.

Most of those newly dead Americans will be over 60, so probably Trump supporters. Their relatives and friends are bound to notice eventually. Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the polls has already widened to 10%. How could Trump turn that around in the remaining 90 S days?

His only hope is to manufacture an October Surprise: a restaged ‘Tonkin Gulf Incident’ with China, perhaps, or a terrorist ‘threat’ so humongous that it gives him a pretext to declare martial law nationwide. Or maybe he will arrange the premature certification of a Covid-19 vaccine so he can roll it out just before the vote. If it kills a lot of people later on, who cares? He won.

Trump knows that if he loses the election he will spend the rest of his life in court, possibly even in jail. He will do whatever it takes to win. It isn’t over yet.

 


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Government’s objective is to ensure the continuous functioning of the country’s economic activities and essential services through effective energy management – President

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President Anura Kumara Dissanayake stated that, in light of the challenges that have arisen due to the prevailing conflict situation in the Middle East, plans are being implemented to manage energy resources effectively while ensuring the uninterrupted continuation of the country’s economic activities and essential services.

The President made these remarks while participating in a discussion held on Monday (16) afternoon  at the Presidential Secretariat to review the immediate measures required to ensure the country’s energy conservation and maintain the uninterrupted functioning of economic activities and essential services, in view of the current disruptions affecting energy supply.

During the discussion, which was attended by the relevant Ministers and Ministry Secretaries, special attention was focused on the measures required to ensure the uninterrupted continuation of public services in light of the prevailing situation.

Extensive discussions were also held on alternative methods that could be adopted in maintaining the operations of government offices. In this context, attention was drawn to the possibility of limiting energy consumption while continuing essential services by granting a one-day holiday for the public service.

Particular attention was also given to examining alternative measures that could be adopted to ensure the continued provision of services with minimal energy consumption, taking into account the specific nature and practical requirements of sectors such as education, health, tourism, fisheries, industry, agriculture, ports and shipping, airport services and digital services.

The President instructed a committee, comprising Ministry Secretaries and sectoral experts, to submit a report by the end of today to determine the fuel allocation required to maintain services in the key sectors.

In addition, the discussion highlighted the importance of making ministerial-level decisions regarding the practical feasibility of performing official duties from home under such circumstances. It was proposed that decisions on summoning officers to their workplaces be delegated to the heads of institutions and that appropriate methods be adopted to ensure the uninterrupted continuation of services.

In view of the prevailing situation, the President paid special attention to the challenges faced by farmers in the agricultural sector and by small and medium-sized industrialists in the industrial sector.

The President further emphasised that, in the current circumstances, the contribution and commitment of all are essential to minimise the potential impact on the country’s economy, while noting that certain groups may be provided with assistance through relief measures.

It was noted that the introduction of the QR system is intended to manage daily fuel consumption in response to the ongoing challenges. This system will allow for the daily analysis of fuel allocations, emphasising the importance of releasing fuel in a manner that safeguards the country’s energy conservation while supporting economic and service activities.

The discussion also highlighted the importance of using the QR system in an orderly manner during fuel distribution and the need for each Ministry to promptly provide all necessary data to the Ministry of Digital Economy. Accordingly, it was proposed that the relevant Ministries, together with the legally recognised petroleum institutions, work to further streamline the QR system.

In addition, it was proposed to temporarily suspend state celebrations in light of the prevailing situation and to establish a procedure for informing the private sector of any further measures the Government intends to take in this regard.

Prime Minister Dr. Harini Amarasuriya, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Employment and Tourism Vijitha Herath, Minister of Trade, Commerce, Food Security and Cooperative Development Wasantha Samarasinghe, Minister of Health and Mass Media Dr. Nalinda Jayatissa, Minister of Public Administration, Provincial Councils and Local Government Professor A.H.M.H. Abeyratne, Minister of Labour and Deputy Minister of Finance and Planning Dr. Anil Jayantha Fernando, Minister of Industries and Entrepreneurship Development Sunil Handunnetti, Minister of Transport, Highways and Urban Development Bimal Ratnayake, Secretary to the President Dr. Nandika Sanath Kumanayake, Governor of the Central Bank Dr. P. Nandalal Weerasinghe, Senior Advisor to the President on the Digital Economy Hans Wijesuriya, Senior Economic Advisor to the President Duminda Hulangamuwa and a group of officials, including the Secretaries of the relevant Ministries, participated in the discussion.

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UN resolution on Iran ‘unbalanced’: FM Herath

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Vijitha / Zuhair

Zuhair castigates sponsors who failed to condemn aggressors

Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath said that the recently adopted United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution that strongly condemned Iran for, what it called, “egregious attacks” on its regional neighbours, was not fair as it did not make reference to Israeli-US initiating the latest conflict.

Herath said so in response to The Island query. He said that the government wouldn’t support country specific resolutions. Minister Herath described the resolution, adopted by a vote of 13 in favour, none against, and two abstentions (China, Russian Federation), as unbalanced. Sri Lanka refrained from co-sponsoring the resolution that had the backing of nearly 140 countries. Both India and Pakistan co-sponsored the resolution.

The JVPer reiterated that both sides should cease attacks and deal with the developing situation in terms of the UN Charter.

The Council condemned, “in the strongest terms,” Iran’s attacks against Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan and reiterated its strong support for those countries’ sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence.

Former Sri Lanka’s Ambassador in Iran, M.M. Zuhair, PC, said that those who co-sponsored the controversial resolution, and the UNSC that adopted it, conveniently failed to take into account unprovoked Israeli-US attack on Iran and the killing of over 1,400 civilians, including nearly 160 children and staff at a girls’ school. The former lawmaker said that the UN Security Council had failed in its fundamental duty to prevent or end the Israeli-US joint aggression on Iran or, at least, to condemn the unprovoked military action.

By Shamindra Ferdinando

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Japan provides grant for reinforcement of Cyclone Ditwah damaged bridge

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Ambassador Isomata and Ven. Nagolle Nandaratana, Chairman of DIMUTHU Community Development Society signed the agreement (pic courtesy Japanese embassy)

Japanese ambassador in Colombo Akio Isomata on 16 March signed a grant contract for reinforcing a bridge in Buttala under the scheme of “Grant Assistance for Grassroots Human Security Projects (GGP)”. The contract was signed with Ven. Nagolle Nandaratana, Chairman of DIMUTHU Community Development Society.

The text of the Japanese embassy press release: “The Government of Japan has provided USD 25,432 (approx. LKR 7.8 million) for a project implemented by the DIMUTHU Community Development Society. This grant will fund urgent reinforcement of the bridge abutments which were damaged by Cyclone Ditwah, and construction of retaining walls to safeguard the bridge, which ensures safe access of 3,200 residents to education and healthcare services.

Emphasising Japan’s focus on strengthening institutional frameworks to address natural disasters in Sri Lanka, Ambassador ISOMATA remarked: “As Sri Lanka moves on to the phase of recovery and reconstruction, Japan remains steadfast in its resolve to stand by the people of Sri Lanka”. Ambassador also said: “The project for which we signed today will not only contribute to the recovery and reconstruction of areas affected by Cyclone Ditwah and socio-economic development of the country, but will also stand as an enduring symbol of the unwavering friendship between the peoples of Japan and Sri Lanka.”

Commenting on the receiving of this grant assistance, Ven. Nagolle Nandaratana, Chairman of DIMUTHU community Development Society, stated, “Japan and Sri Lanka share a beautiful, long-standing friendship. Beyond just development, we’ve always admired the Japanese way of doing things—with precision, discipline, and kindness. This approach has truly been our guide in making our past collaborations, like our water projects and community buildings, such a lasting success.

Special thanks to the Ambassador, the hardworking Embassy team, and our coordinator for making this happen. “

Since 1989, Japan has been providing a total of USD 62 million in assistance for Sri Lanka through the GGP (Grant Assistance for Grassroots Human Security Projects) scheme.”

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