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After May Day: Now What?

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by Kumar David

The diagnostics and the prognostics after May Day are in. I discard the assertions of those who are committed to fixed opinions and repeat their convictions sans analysis. (“Everything is proof that the JVP/NPP is heading for a landslide victory”. “Only Ranil can deliver the goods and the people will rally around him”. “Sajith’s star is rising, he is our next president come what may”, etc). I have taken note only of intelligent people who have interpreted events and evidence with an analytical mind. For example, Mr X has access to several observers, police reports and what state officials and business leaders say and has sifted through all of this. Mr X may have political preferences of his own but he is “scientific” in interpreting evidence. This is the type of person I have given credence to in this piece.

The facts diligently extracted from such sources are as follows.

· The JVP/NPP rallies and meetings in Colombo and Matara were impressive, Anuradhapura was so-so and Jaffna was a failure.

· Ranil had the advantages of incumbency – streamlined train and bus services – but the showing was not impressive. Some who were expected, refrained from climbing on his stage The section below entitled Closing Arguments for the Novice is an important follow up this matter.

· Sajith’s show was, well ok, but not impressive enough; well, so-so again

· Mahinda’s SLPP was abysmal. People say the SLPP will be hard pressed to poll 10%.

· The SLFP showing was also poor; maybe 10% of the total poll.

Now let me move to the next set of questions. One that is often asked is “If it appears to Ranil that he is going to be hard pressed by Anura, is he likely to cancel the presidential election that by law must be held in about October this year”. My sharp and peremptory response is “No ways. He dare not try that lark! The country will explode and the international community will roundly condemn him. The preservation of democracy in Lanka is the bottom line that cannot be crossed: It will not sit comfortably with the West, the IMF, its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) or with India. Nor is there anything in it for China or conversely for global imperialism (meaning the US) either. The presidential election will be held!

If the presidential election is held as scheduled, what of the outcome? My informants like Mr X, separate from their own preferences, suggest that there is a fairly good chance that the JVP will prevail. Lots of people say “We have tried everything else and failed, might as well give the b…..ers a chance”. All of us have heard this and I am only repeating something familiar to most of you. Please believe me, though my own leftist leanings are familiar to many of you, this is not the motive for this avowal.

There is still the nagging concern “Can the 3% become 50%”? The JVP always showcased enormous rallies but come elections it rarely polled more than about 3%! Could this time also be another flash in the pan? Too early to tell but the trends will become clear in the coming months. Let’s watch.

My comment about democracy in Sri Lanka has another side to it. Nearly all of the moral pariahs who voted to turn this country into a dictatorship, that is nearly ALL who voted for a constitutional amendment permitting Mahinda a third term (and thereafter unlimited terms thus making the country another Idi Amin, Papa Doc state) are still sitting in the Chamber. They are worse than harlots since the ladies of the night have hungry children to feed or sick relatives to minister to. Our parliamentary pariahs were only fattening themselves or seeking renomination from Mahinda. Among them is Vasu – I confess I made the mistake of briefly joining a political faction led by him. Attorney Lal Wijeyanayake and Prof. Vijaya Kumar, also leftists like me, did not make that mistake. Ceylon/SL parliament’s finest constitutionalist may have had hopes of nurturing Vasu as a future member of the leadership team. NM would be turning in his grave but he was cremated and spared that indignity.

Whosoever is elected president and forms the next government is certain to dissolve parliament and attempt to secure a working parliamentary majority at a fresh parliamentary election. He (no she in sight) will face monumental tasks. SL faces colossal challenges in attempting to dig itself out of the pit it fell into in 2021-22, namely default on international debt, downgrading by international rating agencies, conflict with Sovereign Bond holders (that is capitalist market agencies who want all their money back, and don’t want to suffer a hair-cut) and other complex and painful economic choices.

The four big challenges facing Lanka in order are as follows:

· Paying off a sufficient part of the country’s accumulated debt to satisfy the IMF and its Extended Fund Facility that the economy is in repair and that some part of the over $5 billion of currently blocked IMF funds can be released. The IMF Board is unlikely to play hangman and push Lanka into anarchy if there is proof of seriousness of purpose. And which is more difficult, if serious steps are taken to fight political corruption, leniency can be expected.

· Strengthening the export orientation of the economy because economic consolidation is critically dependent on the performance of exports.

· Persuading the people to accept a degree of belt-tightening; difficult in the light of widespread poverty (about a quarter of the population lives below the official poverty line). But people will be prepared to go with it if they are convinced that the burden is being equitably shared and this not a gimmick by the well-to-do to retain their privileges and pass the buck. There are dozens of commentators in the centre pages of our newspapers who are buck-passers, that is apologists for assemblies like the Official Creditor Committee (OCC).

· Persuading the Left that an all-populist all-socialist agenda is not on the cards, anywhere, at this stage in world history.

In respect of the last point a significant matter has come to my attention. The NPP is not bereft of wise and mature advisors, as people had feared. It seems that there are informed economists and sombre advisors even on delicate topics like national security, working with the NPP. This is no longer the ludicrous Wijeweera JVP era; it is more sombre. Nevertheless, the May Day declaration by Lal Kantha (the JVP’s foremost buffalo and trade union leader) that an NPP government will devolve and vest judicial power in its own grass-roots bodies and Harini’s acute embarrassment in Parliament to try to wriggle out, will worry people about repetition of Rohana era escapades. This is going to cost the NPP some votes.

Of Lanka’s national debt of $ 58 billion, $ 27 billion is owed to bilateral and commercial creditors. Hence, even after debt restructuring a largish burden still remains and arrears and installments have to be serviced. Usable foreign reserves of the Central Bank are only $ 3.4 billion. Since my readers, like myself, are probably novices in economic jargon let me sign off with a summary of some terminology.

Closing Arguments for the novice

The Government and the State are different though they overlap and sometimes collide. Government is the Prime Minister, Cabinet Ministers, their immediate staff and to a degree Parliament which votes money for the Government (the Budget). The main sources of Government revenue are taxes, customs duties and excise duties and its main expenses are social-services like health, education, welfare-subsidies and development programmes. Ideally the budget should balance but rarely, in Lanka or anywhere else does it. Invariably the Budget is in deficit and this is what this Closing Argument is about.

For the sake of this section of the essay, only, I will define the State as the Central Bank (CB). Of course it is much more, the judiciary, the bureaucracy in general and the military. But let me move on with my point. The CB is broadly responsible for the nation’s finances; printing money, managing rupee exchange rates and interest rates, managing inflation, monitoring foreign asset movements, issuing Treasury Bills and doing the sort of things foreign lenders, bond holders, and the IMF are much concerned about.

Yes, there is constant bickering with Government and much interference in every country – you name it. But the big point I am making is that though the CB is responsible for the nation’s external finances, in the case of Lanka, the President and the Governor of the CB are singing the same arpeggio. Ranil says my government is doing all the right things and Nandalal Weerasinghe (NW) says ‘we are on the right track, let’s go on as we are’. Ranil says “the rupee has strengthened above LKR 300 to the dollar, we have brought total debt from about 128% of GDP to below 100%, analysts say GDP growth in 2024 will exceed 3% and foreign reserves are improving”. All this seems to be music to NW’s ears. However, since we have got it wrong so often in the past, nobody is as yet offering any bets.



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Supermoon and lunar eclipse delight star gazers

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The supermoon with a partial lunar eclipse was seen around the world - with this picture taken from Jerusalem [BBC]

A supermoon has lit up the sky across the world coinciding with a rare partial lunar eclipse.

The Moon could be seen to appear brighter and bigger on Tuesday night.

Supermoons happen when the Moon is at its closest point to Earth in its orbit.

A rare partial lunar eclipse – when the Earth’s shadow covers part of the Moon – also happened with about 4% of the Moon’s disc covered in darkness.

Over night from Tuesday into Wednesday, the partial lunar eclipse was visible across the globe – with some of the clearest sightings in the UK and the US.

In the UK it occurred between 01:40 BST and 05:47, reaching its peak at 03:44.

For those in the US, the eclipse is visible between 20:41 EST and 00:47 – or 22:44 at its maximum.

The eclipse was also visible in Latin America, Europe and Africa, as well as small parts of Asia and the Middle East .

This month’s full moon – known as the Harvest moon – is the second of four “supermoons” this year.

The next partial eclipse will be in August 2026, which will be special as around 96% of the Moon will be in shadow.

Reuters Partial lunar eclipse at the Samalayuca Dunes on the outskirts of Ciudad Juarez, Mexico
This image of the partial lunar eclipse was captured in Mexico [BBC]
Weather Watchers/Julie's Garden  The supermoon seen from Birmingham
A skygazer in Birmingham, UK, photographs the Moon [BBC]
BBC Weather Watchers/Jack March Supermoon rises in Baxterley, Warwickshire
Supermoon rises over a country house in Warwickshire, UK [BBC]
Getty Images Moon rises in Caracas, Venezuela
The Moon seen from Caracas, Venezuela [BBC]
Getty Images A supermoon seen from Nanjing, China
The Moon seen from Nanjing in China’s eastern Jiangsu province [BBC]
Getty Images A man sets up a telescope in Indonesia
A star gazer sets up a telescope in Indonesia [BBC]
A full moon rises over the Golan Heights
The supermoon rises over the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights [BBC]
Walkers walk across Sydney Harbour Bridge
The silhouette of climbers descending from the summit of Sydney Harbour Bridge [BBC]
Getty Images Full Moon rises behind the Galata Tower in Istanbul, Turkiye
The Moon rises behind the Galata Tower in Istanbul, Turkey [BBC]
Getty Images A plane flies in front of the Moon in Toronto
A plane flies in front of the Moon in Toronto [BBC]

[BBC]

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Marketing gimmick or genuine commitment?

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Ranil’s Theravada Alignment:

The Ranil’s manifesto claims that Sri Lanka became the “granary of the East” by adhering to Theravada economic policies, yet it does not explicitly define these policies. Instead, it contradicts this assertion by pointing out that Vietnam, a Mahayana Buddhist nation, followed Thailand’s lead. Despite Thailand’s traditional association with Theravada Buddhism, it adopted policies that resemble those of Mahayana-influenced countries like Japan. These policies, particularly in the tourism sector, introduced revolutionary changes that seem contrary to Theravada principles, further complicating the argument.

He also emphasized the relevance of Theravada Buddhism in addressing the challenges of a rapidly evolving world, driven by science and technology. Speaking virtually at the State Vesak Ceremony at Dharmaraja Piriven Viharaya, in Matale, on the 23 May 2024, he highlighted the need to preserve the core values of Theravada Buddhism and share its wisdom globally.

Buddhism, beyond its spiritual teachings, has deeply influenced socio-economic life across Asia. Theravada and Mahayana, the two main branches of Buddhism, offer contrasting views not only on religious practice but also on economic principles. Both schools emphasize ethical behaviour, compassion, and non-attachment to material possessions. However, their divergent philosophical outlooks lead to varying interpretations of economic activity, wealth accumulation, and societal roles.

Foundations of Economic Thought in Buddhism

The core teachings of Buddhism focus on the Middle Path, a balance between indulgence and asceticism, with the ultimate goal of reducing suffering (dukkha). These teachings shape both Theravada and Mahayana views on wealth and economics. Central to this framework is the Buddhist view of interdependence and the moral consequences of actions (karma). Economic activities, according to Buddhism, should align with ethical principles that promote collective well-being rather than personal greed.

Ranil cites the Samaññaphala Sutta to assert that in Theravada tradition, loans should be used for investments, not consumption. However, I could not find such a claim in the Samaññaphala Sutta (Fruits of the Contemplative Life, translated by Thanissaro Bhikkhu). Instead, according to the Singalovada Sutta, the Buddha taught that one should allocate only a quarter of their income for consumption, reinvest half of it to accumulate wealth, and reserve the remaining quarter for charity. Moreover, the Buddha emphasized, irrespective of Theravada or Mahayana, that failing to repay debts is a characteristic of an outcast (Wasalaya). This suggests that loans should be used for generating income to ensure repayment, rather than for daily consumption.

Theravada Economic Concepts

Theravada Buddhism, often regarded as more conservative and focused on individual liberation, emphasises personal responsibility in the accumulation and use of wealth. It is dominant in countries like Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar, and Cambodia, where economic behaviours often reflect the ethical values promoted by the teachings.

However, Ranil claims that Theravada economic policies are more export-oriented, but in reality, countries following Mahayana principles have been more successful in establishing export-driven economies. These Mahayana-influenced nations, such as Japan and China, have achieved greater success in building robust export-oriented systems compared to traditionally Theravada countries.

In Theravada Buddhism, the goal of life is personal enlightenment (Nirvana), and material wealth is seen as a potential obstacle if it leads to attachment. While wealth is not condemned, its mindful use is emphasized. Individuals are encouraged to follow “right livelihood,” engaging in ethical professions that do not harm others. Wealth is valued when used for virtuous purposes, such as supporting family, charity, and religious institutions. Generosity (Dana) is a key practice, believed to purify the mind and aid spiritual growth. Theravada also promotes social stability through wealth distribution, with the laity supporting the monastic community in exchange for spiritual guidance, fostering economic interdependence without excess materialism.

Mahayana Economic Concepts

Mahayana Buddhism, prominent in East Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam), offers a broader, more inclusive approach to spiritual practice. It emphasizes the Bodhisattva ideal, where individuals work not only for their own enlightenment but also for the liberation of all beings. This collective focus shapes economic views, promoting wealth as a tool for social responsibility and reducing suffering on a societal level. Wealth is seen positively if used altruistically, encouraging large-scale philanthropy, social welfare, and efforts to address inequality. Unlike Theravada’s focus on personal morality, Mahayana stresses compassionate action (karuna) and societal transformation to tackle the root causes of poverty and inequality.

Wealth, Ethics, and Capitalism

In both Theravada and Mahayana, wealth is viewed through an ethical lens, but with distinct approaches. Mahayana, with its broader focus on social responsibility, aligns more easily with modern economic systems like capitalism, viewing wealth creation as an opportunity for the greater good if guided by ethical principles. Theravada, on the other hand, takes a more cautious stance, promoting a simpler lifestyle and warning against excessive material accumulation. In Theravada societies, the monastic community (Sangha) provides a moral check on economic inequality. Mahayana’s emphasis on compassion has also led to socially conscious enterprises in East Asia, prioritizing sustainability, fair labour, and ethical products, reflecting the Bodhisattva ideal of using wealth for humanitarian purposes.

Ranil claims that Theravada economic policies are more export-oriented, but in reality, countries following Mahayana principles have been more successful in establishing export-driven economies. These Mahayana-influenced nations, such as Japan and China, have achieved greater success in building robust export-oriented systems compared to traditionally Theravada countries.

Sri Lanka, as a predominantly Theravada Buddhist country, has a long history of intertwining its religious principles with governance and economic policies. However, a critical examination reveals that the country’s modern economic policies, shaped by globalization and capitalism, increasingly diverge from traditional Theravada Buddhist concepts. While Sri Lankan society continues to emphasize Buddhist values in various aspects of life, its capitalistic economic structure suggests a closer alignment with the broader, more flexible economic interpretations found in Mahayana Buddhism.

Sri Lanka’s Capitalistic Economic Policies

Post-independence Sri Lanka has seen significant shifts in its economic policy, particularly following the liberalization of the economy in 1977. These changes introduced free-market principles, deregulation, and foreign direct investment, which moved the country toward a capitalist economic model. The focus shifted from self-sufficiency and state-controlled economic activities to embracing global trade, privatization, and open markets.

The rise of private enterprise, multinational corporations, and consumer culture indicates a move away from the traditional Theravada ethos of simplicity and non-attachment. In this context, the rapid urbanization, expansion of tourism, and increasing wealth inequality seem more aligned with capitalist values, where material success and profit maximization are prioritized over ethical considerations of wealth distribution

Closer Alignment to Mahayana Economic Principles

Sri Lanka’s capitalist policies reflect this Mahayana-like flexibility. Wealth accumulation, entrepreneurship, and international trade are embraced, but with a growing focus on corporate social responsibility (CSR) and philanthropy. Large corporations and wealthy individuals are often seen contributing to charitable causes, building schools, hospitals, and donating to religious institutions. These actions mirror the Mahayana ideal of using wealth for the greater good, though not necessarily limiting personal accumulation.

He claims that many countries have succeeded by promoting private enterprises and that his Theravada economic system will be a much broader version of this. However, he does not clearly explain how this broader approach—typically associated with Mahayana tradition—aligns with Theravada principles. In fact, most of the economic concepts he references stem from Mahayana traditions. By invoking the term “Theravada,” he seems to be appealing to the Sri Lankan Buddhist community, assuming that people will be swayed by this rhetoric, much like they were with the Kelani River cobra myth and Safi’s allegations, which were sensationalized by certain media outlets.

Consumerism and Buddhist Values

Sri Lanka’s burgeoning consumer culture further highlights the tension between traditional Theravada values and the realities of a capitalist economy. The rise of consumerism, especially in urban centres, encourages material accumulation and status competition, which is antithetical to the Theravada emphasis on contentment and non-attachment. Advertising and media increasingly promote luxury goods and services, feeding a cycle of desire and consumption that stands in contrast to the Middle Path.

This mirrors trends seen in Mahayana Buddhist countries like Japan and China, where consumerism exists alongside Buddhist practice. In these countries, Buddhism has adapted to modern economic realities by focusing on charitable giving and social responsibility rather than strict asceticism.

Social Welfare and Wealth Redistribution

Sri Lanka’s current economic policies diverge from traditional Theravada Buddhism, which emphasizes wealth distribution through support for the Sangha and charitable acts. Instead, Sri Lanka has experienced growing inequality, with urban elites benefiting more from economic growth while rural and marginalized communities remain impoverished. In contrast, Mahayana Buddhism’s Bodhisattva ideal aligns with the state’s sporadic welfare programmes and redistributive policies, such as free education and healthcare. However, these programmes are often hindered by inefficiencies, corruption, and a capitalist system that prioritizes profit over equitable growth.

Conclusion

Ranil’s emphasis on aligning his policies with Theravada tradition appears to be more of a marketing gimmick or salesman’s puff—an overstated claim intended to persuade the predominantly Theravada Buddhist community, which believes that Theravada concepts are original Buddhism. This community has lost faith in his commitment to protecting Buddhism as required by the Constitution. By invoking Theravada values, he likely aims to regain their trust, despite the exaggeration or lack of doctrinal grounding in his statements.

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AKD pledges to protect energy sovereignty; Adani’s wind power projects to be cancelled

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Anura Kumara

by Lasanda Kurukulasuriya

National People’s Power presidential candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), on Sirasa TV’s Satana programme on Saturday (14) elaborated on aspects of the party’s policy statements that have been the subject of some controversy. Grilled by a panel of four journalists, he revealed details of some of the JVP-led alliance’s policies, and appeared to have somewhat revised others. On the subject of India’s stranglehold on Sri Lanka’s Power and Energy sector through agreements already entered into by government, AKD categorically declared that the Adani group’s controversial wind power projects in the North would be cancelled (Anivaarayenma meka cancel karanawa). This is an interesting development, considering that just seven months ago, in an interview on their return from a visit to India, the party suggested that India should have first call on tenders for major projects. In that interview with Sirasa, the JVP leader once known for an anti-Indian stance argued in a surprising turnaround, that projects would have to be ‘within NPP’s national policy framework’ but “within that, we should go for an agreement with India.” (The Island 15.04.24 – Is the JVP signalling left and turning right?)

In past months the NPP appears to have finetuned its campaign promises on how it proposes to fix a rotten political culture, by balancing an element continuity in policy with changes that would address needs of people hard-hit by the economic crisis. Among the key takeaways from the promised reforms under his presidency if elected, were, to put an end to political appointments, banish political protection of criminals, and remove Value Added Tax (VAT) from food as well as education and health related items. On the IMF agreement, he said their policy was not to exit it, but go forward with discussions on other ways of achieving its targets. There was no point in reaching targets on inflation, increased revenue, ratio of debt to GDP, etc., if the social impact was such that people suffered for lack of basic needs, he argued.

Energy sovereignty

Responding to a journalist’s question on how he proposed to address the threat to energy sovereignty posed by deals entered into with India’s Adani group, the JVP/NPP leader went into some detail on the dubious nature of the agreement. Power generated by Adani’s (500MW) wind power plants in Mannar and Pooneryn would be sold to Sri Lanka for 8.2 US cents per unit (kilo watt hour), while a bid from a local producer for a much smaller 50MW wind power plant in the same vicinity, around the same time, had offered a rate of 4.2 US cents per unit. There is something wrong here and we will definitely cancel this agreement, he said. Going further, he referred to the incongruity of India’s suggestion that Sri Lanka would be able to sell any surplus power that is generated, to India. (This was suggested by Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval in talks with officials during his recent visit to Sri Lanka.) AKD claimed that India (while selling power to Sri Lanka at 8.2 US cents per unit) planned to buy any surplus of that same power, from Sri Lanka, at just 3.8 US cents per unit! Reference was also made to Bangladesh, whose new interim government is questioning the terms under which an Adani owned company in India is selling power to Bangladesh.

Dissanayake said that Indian companies would want an explanation from their government as to why Adani was given preference for the Mannar wind power project. However, he did not refer to Sri Lankan companies’ questioning of government on unsolicited proposals and bidding processes. This is at a time when local renewable energy producers are up in arms over step-motherly treatment. He said power generation could be opened up to the private sector, but that transmission and distribution should be controlled by the state. While the recently passed controversial Electricity (Amendment) Act was not specifically mentioned, it would seem that it would need to be repealed or amended under such a policy.

AKD also commented on the Trincomalee Oil Tank Farm, in response to a question relating to ‘something signed by the President,’ on it. (‘Further development of the Oil Tank Farms’ was part of an MoU exchanged last year in India, by President Ranil Wickremesinghe with Indian PM Narendra Modi, on projects in the Trincomalee District.) Dissanayake said his party agreed with some of the conditions but rejected others.

The topic of the oil tanks was not brought up by India he said, but by him, in talks at the Indian High Commission in Colombo. A government under him would use between 8 to 16 tanks for fuel distribution in the North and East, and this would be a big saving when compared to the cost of transporting it from Colombo. The rest could be developed as a joint venture between Sri Lanka and India. He said it was ok to have an oil pipeline connecting Sri Lanka and India (one of the projects agreed on in the MoUs signed in Delhi). He referred to a new refinery to be handled by the Ceylon Petroleum Company (CPC) or a local company, noting that these were complex tasks. “Our location is good for a fuel hub” he said.

Asked about the Indo-Lanka Peace Agreement (of 1987), he said the joint development of the Trincomalee Oil Tank Farm became a condition in it against a backdrop of Indian concerns over pro-US moves by the government at the time. Former President J. R. Jayewardene had allowed a Voice of America broadcasting station there, etc. The global balance of power is different now he said, and the US enters the picture having accepted India’s primacy in the region. Dissanayake said they were well aware of geopolitical developments and big power rivalry in the region.

Crime and politics

In relation to crime, a journalist referred to the raft of killings in broad daylight by gunmen using T56 rifles, witnessed in the streets ‘like a movie,’ not long ago. He noted that there was no IGP at present. Since the election was called, there have been no killings and no more talk of the underworld. Was it because politicians were busy with election work, he quipped. AKD in his response went on to list the names of notorious underworld characters, describing the power they wielded during the rule of presidents of the day, from JR to CBK to ‘the Rajapaksas.’ “Is this not political protection?” he asked. When narcotics are seized, the vehicles in which they are being transported are found to belong to politicians. Vowing to bust the nexus between politicians and organised crime, he said under his government no child will become a victim of drugs. We may be ‘small people’ but “we owe nothing, and fear nothing” (Api nayath ne, bayath ne)

No jumbo Cabinet

A JVP/NPP government’s Cabinet would be limited to 25 ministers, Dissanayake said. The number of deputy ministers would probably exceed that number, but there would be no ‘state ministers.’ The current ministers and state ministers enjoyed the same benefits, the only difference being that state ministers did not attend Cabinet meetings, he said. Asked about ‘Advisors to the President’ he said the maximum number of appointments would be 15.

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