In his editorial, ‘The art of debating without debates’ (12.09.2024) the editor of the The island in his customery style has hit the nail on the head with regard to the intentions of the NPP. Drawing attention to its Revolutionary Policy Declaration- The structure of the Economy (pp 23 and 24): “Foreign capital in every sphere shall be vested in the state without any payment of compensation. Free trade zones will be abolished ….” He raises the very valid, significant and crucial issue’ “a clarification should be sought from the JVP/NPP on the duality of socialism and capitalism it finds itself in”.

The editorial of the following day day (13.09.2024) ‘Foreboding and hope cheek by Jowl’ addresses the other significant issue which has been associated with the JVP/NPP namely- threats and violence. This matter has been further explored in an article of the same day- ‘Whither Sri Lanka: or would we have to say Mea Culpa, Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa?’ The question that ‘An old Connoisseur’ (AOC) is asking from the general populace of this country.

In the article AOC discusses the prospect of voting for Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sajith Premadasa and the JVP/NPP. AOC then invites the JVP/NPP to acknowledge their past deeds –”terrible mistakes and blunders”, apologise for these and assure the public that these will not happen in the future.

It is in fact these two elements with regard to the JVP/NPP i.e. their apparent duplicity with regard to economic policy and historical association with violence that has caused reservations in the majority from voting for the JVP/NPP. The recent episode with the band Marians and their subsequent ‘retraction ‘WhatsApp clips of the force’s rank and file supporters of the JVP/NPP making threats against their own superiors, only make the voters more wary of voting for the JVP/NPP.

As reiterated in this article by AOC, numerous previous articles, editorials and opinions, the people of this country want a ‘change’. But, not at any price. The JVP/NPP is seen as this potential ‘change’. The question is will they be able to reassure the public that they have the responsibility and capability to bring about this change?

There is no doubt that there are many, many others like AOC. In fact, in the article AOC states ‘However, if these Sri Lankan brethren would be brave enough……they will get my vote’. Will is a future intention, not, the present intention. AOC further states that the ‘SAHODARAYAS WILL THEN GET A LANDSLIDE VICTORY’ (emphasis mine). THEN is the critical word. The JVP/NPP need to deliver on what AOC (and the rest of the country) are expecting: a categorical stand on their economic policies, taking responsibility for their past actions and a firm reassurance that such incidents will not occur under their watch in the future. It is only then that they will get the future vote.

AOC concludes, ‘All of us need to think very deeply before we exercise our much -valued franchise. Our decisions could be a harbinger of absolute disaster or a vista of an …. Let us contemplate ever so carefully and vote wisely for the sake of the country’. AOC is hoping that the JVP/NPP will step up to the task. However, when you take the two statements: ‘However, if these Sri Lankan brethren would be brave enough……they will get my vote.” And ‘SAHODARAYAS WILL THEN GET A LANDSLIDE VICTORY’. It cannot be clearer. AOC (and the majority of the country) has no intention of voting for the JVP/NPP, unless these above-mentioned issues are addressed and sorted out.

AOC in his penultimate paragraph dismisses all the other candidates. ‘There is no point in wasting time with them as none of them will even have a ghost of a chance’. This may very well be true. However, I feel that it will be the votes for the provisional second runner-up and the rest of the also rans that will determine the fate of this country.

In order to explain/understand my theory a knowledge of how our electoral system works is required.

In our voting system for the presidential election, in the absence of a clear victor (a candidate obtaining over 50% of votes) in the first count, a provisional winner and runner-up are determined. These numbers are noted and the boxes are ‘sealed’. The second and third preferences on these ballot cards are not taken into consideration. Thereafter, the second choice of all the remaining cards are noted. If anyone of these are for the aforesaid winner or runner-up, they will be added on to that respective candidate and in these cases the third choice on these cards is immaterial.

If the second choice is not in favour of the runner-up or the winner, the process is then applied to the third choice of the remaining ballot cards. It is important to realise that in this system the value of being the second or third choice is the same, as if it were the first choice i.e. it is the total count of all the choices that matter. To illustrate this through an extreme example, candidate A gets 30% in the first count -making him the provisional winner- and Candidate D gets 5%- making him the runner up. In the second count candidate A gets 10% and candidate D gets 5%. However, in the third count candidate A gets only 5% while candidate D gets 40%. Therefore, in the final tally, candidate A gets 45% against 50% for candidate D, making candidate D the winner.

It is being argued in some quarters that the JVP/NPP will have the highest count, but it probably will not be able to secure a clear majority in the first round. So, let us take a scenario – in keeping with the article by AOC- where the JVP/NPP has got 30% of the vote. The next runner up Ranil or Sajith gets 20%. There is a remaining 50% of the votes. This 50% will have a significant percentage of ‘AOC and the rest of the country’ who want the JVP/NPP to come into power, only if they ‘fulfilled the asking criteria’. In the absence of the JVP/NPP ‘coming clean’ as it were, this lot would reluctantly prefer the alternative. Therefore, this 50% (or a considerable Majority of them) will vote for Ranil or Sajith in whatever order as their second and/or third choice. Even allowing for half of these votes to be spoilt, that still leaves 25%, which would come down in favour of the second runner up being the victor, be it Ranil or Sajith, in the final count.

The JVP /NPP have its work cut out. It is up to them to deliver on the expectations of the populace, in less than a week. If it does not do so and end up losing this presidential election, ironically it will be a ‘Mea maxima culpa’ on its part.

Dr. Sumedha S. Amarasekara

The article by Chandre Dharmawardhana titled “Looming Danger in the wake of Presidential Poll: Is Sri Lanka Ready? “, The Island, Tuesday 9-9-2024 seems to be an attempt to bring in fearmongering and provoke people to incite violence in an otherwise peaceful election.

This article paints an unnecessarily harsh and speculative picture, lacking credible evidence to support many of its claims. It introduces conspiracy theories and hypothetical scenarios without basis, contributing more to fearmongering than to a constructive political dialogue. Such claims are not only misleading but also dangerous, as they can incite public unrest and distrust in the democratic process.

The National People’s Power (NPP), led by Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), is often misunderstood and wrongly labeled as a purely socialist entity. The NPP is not bound by rigid ideological labels; rather, it adopts practical policies, drawing on good ideas from both the left and right. AKD has consistently advocated for a development model similar to that of South Korea, which combines innovation, industrial growth, and a focus on national self-reliance. The party’s vision is rooted in pragmatism, not outdated political dogma.

Election propaganda activities this time are more peaceful than previous instances. The credit should go to better informed populace, political parties and the election commission. The Election Commission (EC) of Sri Lanka is well-prepared to handle the upcoming elections, regardless of whether the final result hinges on counted preferences. Speculation about potential unrest or civil disturbance only serves to stoke fear. In fact, these unfounded claims about electoral outcomes and conspiracy theories about election are themselves dangerous, as they could invite and incite violence. Sri Lanka’s democratic institutions, including the EC, have repeatedly demonstrated their capacity to manage elections efficiently and fairly.

The article’s suggestion that an NPP victory would result in a social upheaval is another baseless claim. AKD’s policies emphasise economic stability, growth, and innovation, not radical or destabilising reforms. Furthermore, Sri Lanka’s path to recovery and growth will involve attracting both local and foreign investments—something that the NPP, with its carefully formulated plans, is fully prepared to engage in. The author’s comments about Western and Indian interests in this year’s Sri Lanka election raise the question: on what evidence is he making these claims?

Conflating the peaceful, democratic rise of the NPP with violent conspiracy theories is irresponsible. Instead of focusing on hypothetical unrest or fearmongering, the country should focus on ensuring a peaceful and fair election where all candidates and their supporters respect the democratic process. Yes, Sri Lanka is ready, the Election Commission is ready, and the voters who are waiting to make a real change are more than ready.

Prof. Ajith DeSilva, University of West Georgia, USA
(ldesilva@westga.edu)

By an Old Connoisseur

The D-day is approaching rapidly. There is feverish activity on all fronts as a prelude to the 21^st of September 2024, the Presidential Election Day. Crowds are being recruited, palms are being oiled, jumpers are putting to shame even the crack Olympic Champions, the decibel levels of speakers at propaganda rallies are going up by the minute and accusations as well as counter-allegations are flying like pre-programmed arrows.

There seems to be so much at stake for the politicians but what about the ordinary citizens; the Pereras, Silvas and the Fernandos, not to mention the Senas, Palas and the Appuhamys, etc? These are the people who really matter in this equation, isn’t it? They form the denominator which should be the factor that should be used to assess all kinds of claims. This article is for the general populace of our land.

This country is for all Sri Lankans and certainly not only just for the miserable politicians. Some candidates bask in the glow of what they claim to have done and pulled the country out of the deepest possible mire while others put forward various plans and protocols to ensure that this thrice blessed and beautiful little Pearl of the Indian Ocean will have a future filled with milk and honey.

Some others pontificate that they will get hold of all the ill-gotten wealth from numerous “thakkadis” of our own Sri Lankan ilk, put the miscreants in jail and usher in a prosperous nation with that money. The entire country has become a crucible of varying contentions that would necessarily bring out the question as to whom could we believe.

Now then., that is where we need to look carefully at the past performances of all these worthies. The man at the helm now can claim some credit for the current economic performance of the country. We should give even the devil his dues. Yes, the man has managed to improve the social standards and eliminated shortages and queues. However, we are inclined to ask ‘At what cost?’ The cost of living has gone through the roof, and indirect and direct taxes have led to a situation where even the well-to-do have run into problems. Many people with fixed incomes have had to eternally worry about where the next meal for the family is coming from.

There is rampant malnutrition amongst not only the children but in the adults too. He says that he could not get the cooperation of the pohottuwa guys but all he had to do was to threaten them and say that he would dissolve the Parliament. He is rather autocratic, has some confirmed rotters in his entourage, and the man has even tried to cross swords with the judiciary, not once but quite a few times. Internationally, he wields quite a clout with most countries and for beggars like us, that is a plus point. Yet for all that he has quite a few skeletons in his cupboard a la Batalanda, etc. One does wonder as to what we would get by giving him another 5 years of the Executive Presidency. Your guess is as good as mine.

Then there is the Dasa character from the Dasa heritage. He seems to reign supreme in the SJB/SJS. Autocracy seems to be in his genes and he generally listens only to immediate family members., especially the one who has a ‘J’ in the name. He did run away when he was offered the headship of the country and he says that he could not have worked with the rogues of the flower bud lot. Once again, all he had to do was to threaten to dissolve Parliament and all of them would have toed the line and grovelled on the floor at his feet.

That is what Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore would have done. Yet for all that, the greatest problem is that this Dasa has now taken into his bosom all the rats that are abandoning another sinking ship. Like all rodents everywhere, these happen to be the absolute scum of the gutters. All kinds of miscreants have been given refuge in his perceived kingdom.

Many people are mad at him for that. The decibel level he uses when he pontificates at rallies is distinctly uncomfortable and even provokes the viewers to switch off their TVs. He has a reasonable set of acolytes around him but as to how much leeway he will be willing to give them, if and when he comes into a scenario of absolute power, is anybody’s guess.

There are the rathu sahodarayas led by AKD. They have loads of proposals to revive the country and admittedly, at least some of them, are quite reasonable and most attractive. However, they have several problems. One is that they seem to hate people with some money., even those who have made their money through honest means and hard work. However, their efforts to catch all the thieves and put them behind bars is most praiseworthy.

The populace will have no problems with that. But., and this is a BIG BUT., notions are flying around that if they come to power, private properties will be acquired, certain monetary investments beyond a certain value would be confiscated, some assets will be nationalised, etc.

This will be a worrying thing for people even contemplating giving their votes to AKD. There is also the story of the top man being used only as a front for the hard-core elements and trade union chaps to rule the roost. There is also their chequered past. This writer was a fledgling trainee public servant in 1971 and a high-ranking public servant in 1988 and 1989. He saw the atrocities committed by these sahodarayas. These were major mistakes they made in a quest for absolute power.

The young people and those who are entering the adult franchise for the first time are far too young to realise the gravity of these things., some of them not even being born during those troubled times. Many say that we should try the Sahodarayas out and give them a chance but then we need to look at countries like North Korea where people tried these socialist/communists out. In all these countries, where their people have employed the principle of “deela balamu” it has been an absolute disaster with no further proper elections and a complete destruction of democracy.

However, if these Sri Lankan brethren would be brave enough to come right out tomorrow and declare that they made terrible mistakes and blunders in the past and that those will not happen again and apologise to the populace, also say that the civil liberties of people will not be curtailed, and promise to put all the rogues in jail as well as look after the farmers, the workers, the down-trodden and the children, they will get my vote. For that matter, they will also get the votes of hundreds of thousands of others of Sri Lankan heritage.

That will be their trump card. THE SAHODARAYAS WILL THEN GET A LANDSLIDE VICTORY, even more than what GR managed to secure 5 long years ago. Of course, the people will hold the JVP totally responsible to honour their pledges. Over to you Harini A and Doctor Chappie in the JVP, you are probably the only two who will understand this…, and be able to convince the other Sahodarayas. So, over to you, to persuade them to play that trump card ASAP.

Readers will note that I have not mentioned anything about the other 36 contenders for the hallowed Executive Presidency of Sri Lanka. They, including the tycoon and the youngster from the flower bud party, will just only be ‘also-ran’ characters. There is no point in wasting time with them as none of them will even have a ghost of a chance.

It is not just the youngsters or those who have just got their franchise, who need to consider the content of this article. True, the younger generation has to opt for a system change. Even people of my vintage have an abiding duty to make an informed choice for the sake of our children and grandchildren. All of us need to think very deeply before we exercise our much-valued franchise.

Our decisions could be a harbinger of absolute disaster or a vista of an august future with visions of blissful opulence for this wonderful Motherland of ours. Five years ago, people voted for Vistas of Prosperity and Splendour, only to find that it was a monumental mistake. Let us contemplate ever so carefully and vote wisely for the sake of the country.