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Tribute to AVM Laksen Salgado from his mates in officer cadet intake No. 2

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SLAF No. 2 officer cadet intake consisted of a batch of nine, together with few other in–service inductions. Of the nine, four were Thomians and Jayanath Laksen Chandri Salgado of “Preetheum”, Moratuwa was one of them.

Sala, as he was fondly called by his friends joined with an excellent school record having represented Sri Lanka at the Indo–Sri Lanka athletic meet in his pet 400 meters event as a member of the ACE Athletic Club. It goes without saying that he won his Public Schools’ colours, was a college prefect, a member of the cadet platoon, and also of the 2nd XV rugby team.

Sala’s father, Mr. Lloyd Salgado, who was a proprietary planter was well known to my father who was one time Supdt. Of Police of Moratuwa. Later, even his brother–in–law Surgeon Dr. Wimal Gunaratne, who too was a public school athlete, was well known to me.

Cadet intakes were a result of post ’71 insurgency expansion. As the provision of the infrastructure required was not able to keep pace with manpower expansion, the No. 01 intake of 30 cadets took priority in utilizing available resources. The ‘flyers’ of our batch had to wait till they completed their various phases. This applied to all other branches too.

Diyatalawa (DLA) which is renowned for its salubrious climate was cold during morning PT clad in our thinnest vests. We developed great respect for the Siberian winter which we had read about.

The stagnation in training facilities made Sala and the flying cadets follow the training provided mainly for Regt. Cadets under then Commanding Officer (CO), Wg. Cdr. Bren Sosa and the Officer Commanding Training (OCT). A component of the course was a jungle march to Kuda – Oya in small batches, the flight cadets doing one of them. It so happened that they reached the destination a day earlier than the other groups due to a flying navigational error perhaps. This all-round training would have served in good stead in later service life when commanding stations and for Sala, in particular when he was Director Operations, with ground ops coming under him.

On commissioning, the three flyers were posted to No. 03 Maritime Squadron flying Cessna 337 aircraft under the CO, Sq. Ldr. Christian. However, unexpectedly they were converted to fly Jet Provost (JPT) fighter aircraft which came into their own glory with the ’71 insurgency strike and interdiction sorties. Sala and his batch mates kept flying this aircraft until it was phased out. It took almost another two decades to get back to fighter jet aircraft flying post OP Poonamalai with the Indian Air Force dropping relief supplies over Jaffna, better known as the “Parippu drop”.

Sala, later qualified as a flying instructor and he was selected to undergo No. 313 qualified flying instructors (QFI) course at Central Flying School, Royal Air Force, Leeming, UK. This was a very demanding course in flying training that was a long overdue need of the SLAF. In his seven years as a QFI, culminating in the last two years as the CO of the flying training wing (FTW) generations of pilots had been trained meeting the coveted RAF standards. He was the first to follow the air warfare course at the Air War College, Pakistan Air Force for a period of over a year.

During his career had held many senior appointments as Eastern and Western Zonal Commander, Director Operations and finally as the Chief of Staff. He was a recipient of the Ranawickrema Padakkama (RWP) very early in his career (1992), and without resting on his laurels he continued with his operational contributions till the very end.

Laksen was married to Erandathie and had a son, Laksith, and a daughter, Shalindri. At the time of need they did all they could with love and devotion. We are grateful to Sala’s college friend HDK Silva for keeping us updated on his medical condition without having to trouble Erandathie.

OLD SOLDIERS NEVER DIE, THEY ONLY FADE AWAY

MAY HIS SOUL REST IN PEACE!

Ravi Arunthavanathan

Batchmate



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The Election-Economy Nexus and the Politics of JVP Apology

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Anura Kumara Dissanayake

by Rajan Philips

The economy is the base; everything else is superstructure. That is the old Marxian concept, simply put. The base ultimately determines what goes on in the superstructure, which includes among other things the state and its institutions, as well as their processes and functions. Included are the legislature, the executive and the judiciary, and their elections and appointments. Over time, there have been modifications to the old concept.

Borrowing from Freud’s psychoanalysis, Louis Althusser, the French Marxist, used the concept of over-determination to suggest that there are multiple causes producing an effect, i.e., political outcomes are ‘over determined’ by many causes besides the economy, although the economy could be singularly significant. Neo-Marxists have provided another angle in that just as the base could determine the goings on in the superstructure, what goes on in the superstructure also have implications for the base.

I believe it was in his political obituary of JR Jayewardene (in the Lanka Guardian) that Dayan Jayatilleke quite remarkably described the outcome of JRJ’s open economy project was to drag the Sri Lankan economic base into alignment with the superstructure that had already drifted into alignment with global changes. This is not to absolve the architects of the open economy of their untoward intentions, unintended results and ill-gotten gains, but to use that experience as a backdrop as we come to view the emerging dialectic between the economy of Sri Lanka and the politics of the JVP/NPP. And in this election year, all politics is electoral. Hence the election-economy nexus.

Yet the JVP’s project is quite different from that of JRJ. The task is now to salvage the economy and not to embark on any realignment. For the electorate it would be a question of JVP’s competence as much it would be of its attractiveness as a new alternative. So, it is fair, reasonable and necessary to question the JVP/NPP on its approach to and experience in matters economic.

But it is a worthless red herring to demand the present leader of the JVP/NPP to apologize for the doings and misdoings of the pre-NPP JVP under the leadership of his predecessors. Put another way, if the JVP/NPP were to win the next pair of national elections, it should be because it is able to persuade a majority of voters on what it can do in the future as government, especially for providing economic stewardship; and not because it says sorry for what the JVP did in its insurrectionary past under a different leadership.

Schoolmasterly Politics

It is also school masterly politics to ask Anura Kumara Dissanayake to say sorry for the ways of his predecessors before he can be admitted in class. Not to mention the preferential school masterly treatment in allowing convicted murders to sit in parliament because they belong to the right parties and perhaps the same ‘class.’ It is not my purpose to prescribe what Mr. Dissanayake should or should not do or to predict what he may or may not do, but to critique, if not poke fun at, the moral hypocrisy and the political idiocy of the current crop of apology seekers.

Globally, there is a body of literature on political apologies following the so called “age of apologies” – the two decades of 1990s and 2000s, when 186 political apologies were rendered in comparison to 16 apologies over the previous four decades from 1947 to 1989. Decolonization obviously provided the primary site for rendering political apologies. Other instances include oppressive states and regimes using apologies as a framework for reconciliation and restorative justice between state oppressors and the oppressed populations. The most celebrated example of the latter is the truth and reconciliation experience of post-apartheid South Africa.

The offering of apologies is still continuing and in significant numbers, but a number of apology academics are becoming weary of dispensing apology by state actors who cynically use apologies to rhetorically accept responsibility without institutional commitment to change. The ethos of apology is now credited for the American response to the 9/11 Al Qaeda attacks that targeted the perpetrators of the attack while rejecting Islamophobia and without infringing the rights and freedoms of Muslim and Arab American citizens. Bundling Al Qaeda and Islam is the handiwork of Donald Trump, but that is an altogether different phenomenon.

Germany has perpetually placed itself in apology mode for the horrors of the holocaust. But where continuing restitution for even such an epochal tragedy as the holocaust can easily morph into a new and subjectively no less horrific tragedy is what the world is now watching in Gaza. The political fallouts from the Gaza tragedy are manifesting themselves in every Western country. To wit, the historic trouncing of all the major political parties in the recent Rochdale bye-election in Britain. Not to mention the domestic pressure on the Biden Administration in the US and its desperate efforts to effect an immediate ceasefire in Gaza while insisting on the two-state solution for the long term. Be that as it may.

Sri Lanka is not an automatic site for political apologies. Some Western academics have noted that Sri Lanka is not the typical authoritarian state that is transitioning to democracy, with political apologies becoming part of the transitionary phase. Sri Lanka, if at all, has been moving in the opposite direction. A reasonably functioning democratic state that has been more than occasionally careening into authoritarian spells. One significant shortcoming that academics have noted is the absence of judicial review of legislation that have prolonged the life of draconian laws without checks and challenges. There is homework to be done in putting these checks and balances in place through constitutional reform. But nothing is going to come out of asking for and accepting apologies.

Historically, the oppressive instruments of the state have been used against working class organizations and minority groups. No apology was given, and nothing was asked for. The 1971 JVP insurrection was the first instance when the state was systematically challenged and forced into an authoritarian mode. The insurrection was defeated, and its leaders were tried under new laws, convicted and jailed. No one asked for apologies. There were of course significant political fallout. The whole program of the United Front government was irreparably set back. The brutal put down of the insurrection by the UF government became an electoral weapon for the opposition UNP in the 1977 elections. The UNP’s payback was the freeing of imprisoned JVP leaders, not all of whom were ready to grow out of their insurrectionist proclivities.

1983 came and went without any apology, and in an aside President Jayewardene declared the JVP Naxalites, and ordered their arrests. The JVP went underground to launch its second coming, and it came with worse brutalities and matching putdowns. The JVP was again defeated to a point that its third coming could only be non-violent and even democratic. Should President Jayewardene be asked for a posthumous apology – for triggering the cycle of JVP violence – now that there is a kinsman of his in office as President?

At the other side of the ethno-spectrum, the Tamil militants engaged the state in bouts of war that went on for over 25 years. Even the Indian army got in the act, and the whole island became a killing field. People perished in their random tens of thousands. There have also been hundreds of targeted killings, including a dozen or so emblematic ones using state resources for political reasons as well as for personal reasons. None of them have been solved and the perpetrators are perpetually at large. In the scheme of things, who is one to ask for apologies and who is to give?

What might be more concerning is the reported mobilization of ‘retired tri-forces’ by the JVP/NPP apparently as an electoral phalanx. The SJB is reportedly going after officer-level retirees, while Ranil Wickremesinghe has staked his ground from top, as usual, by taking care of the current tri-forces with state bounties. The tri-forces, whether on the job or in retirement, have become an important part of the Sinhalese social formation, as well as a numerically critical voting bloc.

The socialization of the tri-forces has served the positive purpose of keeping them away from temptations to overthrow democratically elected governments. But the ever lurking danger is in the ethno-politicization of the tri-forces that pits them against non-Sinhala members of the Sri Lankan society. The Rajapaksas were often accused of ethno-politicization of not just the tri-forces, but of all forces. Even that did not help them in the end, a lesson that the JVP/NPP can ignore only at their ultimate peril.

The Election-Economy Nexus

Turning to the elections and the economy, Sri Lanka is among quite a few countries that are facing rather consequential elections this year. But there is no consistent picture of the election-economy nexus that one might see in the countries with upcoming elections. Understandably so, because beneath the over arch of the global economy, the world’s societies are seething with their socio political specificities. The two big ones are India and the US. The Indian economy is strong. It is the economic engine that is propelling South Asia to be the leading growth region in a somewhat sluggish world economy. The world economy is “neither sick nor strong” is the assessment of a political economist, John Rapley. He even compares it to long Covid – the lasting aftereffects of Covid-19 that selectively impairs some but not others.

India struggled during the pandemic, but now it is surging. India’s growth has been upwards of 7% and 8% in recent quarters and is projected keep going for now. In comparison to others, India’s manufacturing sector is sustainably strong. Modi inspired government spending on infrastructure and incentives to boost the production of electrical and electronic goods have been positively catalytic. He is poised to win a ‘threepeat’ election victory, which he could have done on the strength of performance of the economic base alone without monkeying with India’s secular superstructure.

China, on the other hand, is literally on a downward trajectory. The country does not suffer elections, but it is currently suffering the drastic reversal of its once runaway economic growth. So much bad news, that the government canceled Premier Li Qiang’s news conference that traditionally accompanies the annual sessions of the National People’s Congress.

At the other end, the US economy is going strong; in fact, the only western economy that is positively growing in every sector. Britain and Japan are officially in recession, and Germany is reportedly at economic ‘standstill.’ President Biden delivered his election year State of the Union address on Thursday. He ripped into Trump; chided the Justices of the Supreme Court who were in attendance for rescinding women’s right to abortion; called upon women to show their power with their vote; and joked that he may not look old, but he has been around for a long time.

It was quite a performance at the pulpit for an 81 year old, with hardly any stumble. It certainly would enthuse his base, but whether it would be enough to stop Trump in his tracks is a different question. The November election will be a repeat of the last one between Biden and Trump with their positions reversed. But Biden is not ahead of Trump in opinion polls, as he should be on account of the economy alone. That base is not helping Biden, at least not yet.

On the other hand, Trump who should be reviled and rejected for orchestrating an insurrection against the Congress on January 6, 2021, among other crimes, has taken over the Republican Party, the party of Abraham Lincoln. No one has asked him to apologize. The state of American superstructure is quite shaky in spite of its strong economic base.

There is not much to say that is not already known about either Sri Lanka’s economy or its politics. The assurances of the two elections happening, starting this year, have given room for some optimism and hope. The arrival of Anura Kumara Dissanayake as a presidential contender has spurred the public mood. But it is still a long way to go. And there will be many questions asked of Mr. Dissanayake, and rightly so. Let them be questions on the economy, on ending crime and corruption, and on constitutional reform. Not about apologies.

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A ‘raththaran’ row over new chairman of parliamentary oversight committee

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View from the gallery by Saman Indrajith


Shortly after the announcement of the new chairmen for the Committee on Public Enterprises (COPE) and the Committee on Public Accounts (COPA), there was a surge of criticism on social media regarding the appointment of Kalutara District SLPP MP Rohitha Abeygunawardena as the head of COPE.

Both chairmen were elected to their positions, and the SLPP, with its majority representation in the committees reflecting that of the parliament, was able to secure the election of their candidates. The election of COPA chairman MP Lasantha Alagiyawanna didn’t spark as much controversy, as he had previously held the position. However, Abeygunawardena’s appointment drew significant backlash, with many questioning his qualifications to lead a parliamentary watchdog committee.

Some posts even alleged that he had been involved in criminal activities, such as gold chain snatching, before entering politics. Critics wondered how a committee chaired by such an individual could effectively investigate the wrongdoings of government bodies and statutory boards falling under COPE’s scrutiny.

In parliamentary corridors, discussions echoed similar sentiments, with some opposition MPs emphasizing the public’s previous respect for COPE and its work, expressing concern that the recent development would erode that reputation. One MP said that Abeygunawardena’s nomination for the position was influenced by Basil Rajapaksa, who ensured SLPP members in COPE voted for him.

Others questioned how the SLPP could support Abeygunawardena for a position previously held by highly qualified individuals like DEW Gunasekera, Dr. Wijayadasa Rajapakshe, Sunil Handunnetti, and Prof. Chairtha Herath. This appointment not only undermines COPE but also reflects poorly on the integrity of parliament itself.

Born on September 1, 1966, in Paiyagala, Kalutara, Abeygunawardena attended Gnanodaya Vidyalaya in Kalutara and Alexandra College in Colombo. One MP raised the question of Abeygunawardena’s qualifications beyond his loyalty to the Rajapaksa family, pointing out his notorious reputation as “Raththaran” in Kalutara, allegedly involved in snatching gold chains from women on trains. Another MP pointed out that Abeygunawardena has denied these allegations.

It is indeed true that Abeygunawardena has refuted these allegations in the House. On February 21 he denied any involvement in chain-snatching activities and stated that he would resign from his MP position if anyone could provide evidence of a complaint filed against him for such offenses at any police station in the Kalutara district. During that session, he also addressed the Parliament, asserting that his privileges as an MP had been violated due to social media posts made by a female constituent residing in his electorate.

Abeygunawardena said that a woman by the name of Lalanthi Perera of No 908, Galle Road, Katukurunda, Kalutara, has put up various social media posts stating that he and Acting IGP Deshabandu Tennakoon were rogues and thieves, and they should be taken into custody immediately.

Tabling copies of social media posts, he said: These statements could harm our lives because they instigate others against us. I want Lalanthi Perera to be summoned before Parliament’s privilege committee and act against her. Some others do this using fake accounts. Here in this instance, she has used her own true account. She had contested in the 2015 general election and Kalutara people know her by the name of ‘Cake Nona’. I think all 225 MPs should stand up against this. Otherwise, what is the use of our passing of the Online Safety Bill,” the MP queried.

It is also true that Abeygunawardena been a staunch Rajapaksa loyalist. In a display of this loyalty, he was at the airport to welcome Basil Rajapaksa last Tuesday along with SLPP General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam, MP Sarath Weerasekara and Minister Prasanna Ranatunga.

While discussions criticizing Abeygunawardena’s appointment circulated outside the Chamber, TNA MP Shanikyan Rasamanikkam mentioned his name during Thursday’s debate on the impact of wild animals on agricultural harvests. “The harm inflicted upon the lives of the people of this country by the Rajapaksas outweighs the damage caused by wild animals to agriculture. Upon Basil Rajapaksa’s return, a person convicted of mismanaging the economy, his associates, including an MP allegedly involved in chain-snatching, were present at the airport to welcome him. When I raised this concern, I was labeled an LTTE member,” Rasamanikkam said during the debate.

Soon after the lunch interval, Rasamanikkam raised a privilege issue and said Abeygunawardena had tried to assault him in the Parliamentary complex.

Rasamanikkam said that the incident occurred at the Prime Minister’s Office at the Parliamentary complex when he went to meet the Prime Minister concerning an issue in Batticaloa.

“MP Rohitha Abeygunawardena tried to assault me in the Parliament a short while ago. This happened in the Prime Minister’s office within the Parliament complex. I have raised a privilege issue and am concerned for my safety as he has threatened to assault me outside Parliament as well. MP Abeygunawardena stating that I speak against the Government questioned how I can enter their Prime Minister’s Office. He challenged me to walk out to the lift, after I had insisted that the Prime Minister was for the entire country.”

Rasamanikkam said that MP Abeygunawardena had implied that he could not enter the PM’s Office as he was a Tamil politician and questioned if this was the example the Parliament Members set for national reconciliation.

He said that State Minister Ashoka Priyantha had prevented MP Abeygunawardena from assaulting him, which was also witnessed by the staff at the PM’s Office.

Rasamanikkam requested the matter to be raised before the Parliament Ethics and Privileges Committee, adding that in the event it is not raised, he will be forced to file a Police complaint as this incident was a threat to his life.

Soon after taking to ‘X’ the Rasamanikkam noted that he has alerted the Speaker of the House about the incident today. “This is not the first time I have been threatened by SLPP members. The Parliament Privileges Committee has failed to investigate and act against on previous instances, and it has now reached to a point of assault,” he said in his post.

MP Abeygunawardena arrived in the Chamber later and denied that he tried to assault him. I was trying to accompany him to the lift. In addition, I have already responded to the chain-snatching allegation in this House. Today too I deny it and challenge MP Rasamanikkam to make that allegation out of this House if possible. I have 25-year experience in Parliament,” he said.

Kurunegala District SJB MP Nalin Bandara said the COPE chair should not be accorded to an MP only based on his or her experience. “We think that an MP should need some more qualifications than experience. We proposed the name of Gamini Waleboda who was a graduate of Colombo University. He had worked at the BOI and was a deputy commissioner at the Inland Revenue Department,” Nalin Bandara said, adding that now the COPE members must think twice attending COPE meetings because new chairman may assault them.

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In Sri Lanka opposition parties remain as fragmented as ever

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JVP/NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake addressing recent rally

By Uditha Devapriya and Rumeth Jayasinghe

Like most South Asian countries, Sri Lanka will face elections this year. Both the government and the Opposition are busy preparing themselves for polls.Presidential elections are expected to take place in September or October 2024, though timelines have not been announced yet. Some analysts believe general elections will follow a presidential election, while others believe they will precede it.

The island nation, which faced its worst economic crisis in 2022, has managed to bring about some stability – though politically and economically, this stability remains fragile, if deceptive, certainly superficial.

The government, headed by Ranil Wickremesinghe, has seemingly managed to get things back in order. The country has imposed on itself several painful austerity measures, with assistance from the IMF, World Bank, and Asian Development Bank, in addition to support from other countries, including India.

Since 2022, Sri Lanka’s economy has seemingly fared well. The country managed to secure an agreement with the IMF on an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme in 2023. While the economy grew by 1.6 percent in the third quarter of 2023, inflation, which stood at 56 percent in December 2022, came down to 4.2 percent a year later.

However, while the situation has improved on some fronts, political uncertainty looms large over the island, as policy decisions have fuelled polarisation nearly everywhere. They have also ruptured conventional political divisions and patterns.

So far, Sri Lanka has made progress on restructuring bilateral debt of around USD 11 billion. It expects to come into an agreement with private creditors and bondholders, though the latter remain cautious if not wary.

One of Sri Lanka’s main pillars, tourism, has achieved much growth. Tourist arrivals surged from 194,495 in 2021 to 1,487,303 in 2023, partly due to an ambitious tourism promotional campaign which involved a prominent international influencer.

Once starved of tourists, the country is now witnessing an explosion in hotel bookings, well beyond existing capacity. Indeed, in a strange twist, the Department of Immigration and Emigration recently issued a notification requesting Russian and Ukrainian tourists to leave the island within 14 days, due to nationals of these countries setting up businesses at the expense of locals. A “White Only” party in the south organised in a Russian cafe had aggravated the situation. This is a far cry from 2021 and 2022, when the government was virtually begging for tourists.

However, while there have been improvements in these sectors, they are seen as benefiting a certain privileged class. The Opposition and sections of the public have opposed the government’s economic reforms, including the restructuring of the country’s State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), which is expected to be completed shortly.

Tax reforms have also garnered criticism. Recent hikes in income and Value Added Taxes have imposed a huge burden on the country’s lower and middle-classes, including professionals and small and medium business owners.

Not surprisingly, these have polarised politics in Sri Lanka. They have been fuelled by the regime’s lurch towards authoritarianism. The recent Online Safety Act, for instance, has sparked criticism from civil society. Scandals, particularly one involving a former Health Minister, who has since been remanded, have taken centre stage.

All these have made the government more vulnerable. Yet far from bolstering unity within the Opposition, the Opposition remains as fragmented as ever.

The Main Opposition: Samagi Jana Balawegaya

The country’s main Opposition Samagi Jana Balavegaya, performed modestly at general elections in 2020, gaining 23.92 percent of the vote. Its leader, Sajith Premadasa, once an ally of Ranil Wickremesinghe, has become a fierce critic of his government.

Capitalising on widespread discontent, his party has vowed to reverse many of the policies being enforced by the government. Yet the SJB faces a tricky situation. On the one hand, as the main Opposition, it has organised numerous protests against the regime’s austerity measures and tax hikes. On the other hand, many of its MPs have aligned themselves with the economic ideology underpinning those reforms.

A recently unveiled economic policy document states that the party supports engagement with the IMF. This has led leftwing MPs to accuse the SJB of being no different to the government. The SJB, in turn, has accused these MPs of being “clueless” with regard to economic reforms, fuelling further divisions within the Opposition.

Complicating matters further, the party has invited to its fold several individuals who were associated with the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government. These include ex-military officials. The party itself is chaired by a former Army Commander, Sarath Fonseka. The inclusion of ex-SLPP stalwarts has driven a wedge between him and Sajith Premadasa, to a point where he is now touting himself as a presidential candidate in his own right.

Swinging to the Left: National People’s Power (NPP)

Widely seen as the most popular party in Sri Lanka, the National People’s Power is tipped to be a frontrunner at upcoming elections.

More than any other political outfit, it is the NPP that has tapped into public discontent with the government. It has based its campaign on promises of eradicating corruption. This, of course, was one of the themes of the protests that drove Gotabaya Rajapaksa out of power. It continues to resonate with the country’s youth, the peasantry, and the working classes, vast swathes of whom have swung to the Left.

Ideologically, the party is seen as favouring public ownership, State-led industrialisation, and nationalisation. It is fiercely opposed to ongoing reforms. Its stance on debt restructuring, though, remains less than clear. While it is opposed to the austerity that restructuring has imposed on the middle and lower classes, it has stated that upon coming to power it will renegotiate, not abandon, the IMF agreement. The IMF itself met with its MPs last January. Details of the meeting, however, have not been released.

The NPP is the parliamentary wing of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, which was formed in the 1960s as an anti-establishment outfit, in opposition even to the mainstream Left. At the height of the country’s ethnic conflict in the 1980s, it was banned by the then government. This pushed it out of the democratic mainstream, leading to a protracted insurrection which was motivated, and driven, by Indian intervention in the country.

Since entering democratic politics in the 1990s, the JVP has softened its stances, though on several issues – especially the India-imposed 13th Amendment – it remains of the same opinion as before. It frequently denounces mainstream political parties, though it too was part of coalition politics. Yet it is seen by the country’s youth and lower middle-classes as being clean and free of corruption, a cut above the rest.

In that sense, the Indian government’s decision to invite the NPP to Delhi, where the party delegation met External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, affirms their growing importance not just at home, but also abroad.

Minority Politics: ITAK

The success of these parties will depend a lot on the alliances it forges with other parties. Though nationalism, particularly Sinhala Buddhist nationalism, has played a major part in elections in Sri Lanka, almost all parties have dallied with minority outfits. In 2019, for instance, the SLPP openly courted Muslim votes, even in the backdrop of the Easter attacks, while the UNP secured support from the country’s main Tamil party.

Since the 2020 general election, however, there has been a seismic shift in minority politics. This has been especially evident in Tamil politics. The biggest Tamil political party, the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), recently witnessed a change in its leadership, from a figure seen as a moderate to a more militant hardliner.

This prefigures a pivotal shift in the tactics of Tamil parties. Earlier, minority parties pursued negotiations with major parties with the objective of obtaining concessions on issues like devolution of power and, in the country’s Northern Province, the return of lands owned by the military to their previous owners.

The situation has changed dramatically today. At the last general election, ITAK retained its dominant position in the Northern Province. Yet two rival parties – the Tamil National People’s Front (TNPF), formed in 2010, and the Tamil People’s National Alliance (TPNA), formed in 2020 – secured enough seats to enter parliament. Both have gone beyond the ITAK’s politics of compromise, advocating for autonomy for Tamils.

S. Sridharan, the ITAK’s new leader, is a fitting symbol of these shifts. Described by the press as a “hardline apologist of the LTTE” – the separatist outfit that waged a war against the Sri Lankan government for 30 years – Sridharan has insisted on a new and more viable solution to the problems of his community.

One of the first things he did as party leader was to visit a cemetery for LTTE cadres in Jaffna. Since then, he has expressed reservations about the 13th Amendment and highlighted the need to go beyond devolution of power. Like his counterparts in other Tamil parties, he has pushed for a federal State. Crucially, he has stated he will do all he can to mobilise Tamil nationalist forces “as they were before 2009”, that is, before the LTTE’s military defeat at the hands of the Sri Lankan government.

So far, neither the government nor the Opposition – be it SJB or NPP – has responded to Sridharan’s calls. Yet alliances with minority parties have become a sine qua non of Sri Lankan politics. It is hence likely that government and Opposition will vie for minority votes through these parties closer to the election.

However, at a time when Sinhala dominated parties from both sides are mobilising nationalist sentiments against one another, it remains to be seen how far they will go to court minorities. While the President himself has made overtures to ITAK, convening a meeting, of Buddhist monks and members of the Tamil diaspora, Sridharan’s victory signals a rupture in minority politics in the island. In the long term, that will dampen prospects of a rapprochement between Tamil parties and the government.

The situation is the same with the Opposition. Both the SJB and NPP are courting disaffected voters from the SLPP camp. Some of these groups, such as ex-army officials, disagree heavily with the politics and ideologies of parties like the ITAK.

The Opposition faces a dilemma here. On the one hand, these groups can help erode the SLPP’s hold over nationalist votes. On the other hand, they can also erode the Opposition’s prospects within minority communities. While it is unlikely that minority parties will fully give up cohabiting with mainstream outfits, the SJB’s and NPP’s reaching out to ex-military types may cost both parties support from outfits like ITAK.

The Future: A (Very) Big Question Mark

Described as Asia’s oldest democracy, Sri Lanka faces a rather tricky crossroads this year. With rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific and the prospect of a forever war in the Middle-East, the island’s domestic politics will shape its foreign policy.

Of course, it is economics, not foreign policy, that has taken centre-stage for now. The big question on everyone’s lips is when Sri Lanka will begin to recover.

Such questions, however, cannot be answered or resolved easily.

Different parties have proposed and presented different solutions to Sri Lanka’s economic crisis. At the centre of it all is one issue. For how long can the country continue inflicting austerity on itself, and for how long can the government survive?

Colombo-based economists argue that IMF reforms should be continued and amplified. Yet the backlash those reforms have generated will be picked up by Opposition parties – even those which are fundamentally in agreement with them.

Thus, while the leader of the SJB has publicly stated that he will renegotiate Sri Lanka’s agreement with the IMF if he comes into power, party MPs have advocated for careful engagement with the IMF. Such contradictions are natural in a country where parties face different electorates and try to pander to all of them.

As for the government, it seems content in churning out narratives of stability. This is a line few people seem to be buying. While the situation has changed from what it was in 2022 – there are no miles-long queues for fuel and gas – that offers little consolation in light of the price and tax hikes which most people have had to put up with.

The situation has become so divisive, in fact, that a video of US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu describing Sri Lanka as a comeback story provoked outrage across social media, with several Sri Lankans questioning how he could remain indifferent to, and ignorant of, ground realities.

Against such a backdrop, it is difficult to say who will win elections and what the winner will do with the country. Certainly, the NPP has gained ground, while the SJB’s confused response to economic reforms has cost it popular support. Yet the NPP remains derided by mainstream parties, including the Opposition.

Critically, none of the three major parties battling for votes – SLPP, SJB, and NPP – has fully reached out to minority parties, in particular to Tamil parties.

The SLPP and SJB have, to be sure, forged alliances with certain groups. This is far from the case with the NPP. The NPP has so far been content in promoting its corruption-free record everywhere. The question is how effective such messaging will be with voters in the island’s North and East who have traditionally supported communal parties.

To be sure, it must be admitted that disaffection with the mainstream has grown so much that people are shifting to the Left, particularly to the NPP. To a considerable extent, this disaffection has cut across ethnic and religious divisions.

Whether that will translate into votes, of course, remains to be seen. But it has certainly boosted the NPP’s prospects. This has made it a clear frontrunner, in an election that is sure to be dominated by much uncertainty, chaos, and speculation.

Uditha Devapriya is a writer, researcher, and analyst based in Sri Lanka who contributes to a number of publications on topics such as history, art and culture, politics, and foreign policy. He can be reached at .

Rumeth Jayasinghe is an undergraduate at the University of Peradeniya who is pursuing economics. He can be reached at .

A version of this article was published in The Diplomat.

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