Sri Lanka’s Climate Targets

by Sampath Perera

As Sri Lanka approaches its presidential election, the crucial question for the incoming leader is how to reconcile the country’s economic struggles with the demands of international climate agreements.

With the global climate framework often imposing disproportionate burdens on developing nations, including Sri Lanka, how can the new administration balance ambitious climate goals with the nation’s financial realities? Given Sri Lanka’s modest carbon footprint of 1.02 CO2e tonnes per person, the challenge of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 seems daunting, especially when many citizens are already grappling with basic economic needs. How will the next leader navigate this complex landscape, ensuring that international commitments are feasible and fair, while also advocating for the unique economic challenges faced by developing countries?

Consider a family of four in Sri Lanka, with a sole breadwinner earning a modest Rs. 50,000 per month. For this family, daily survival is a challenge, let alone the luxury of choosing organic food over cheaper alternatives. The struggle to make ends meet highlights a broader economic reality faced by many Sri Lankan households. Their focus is on affordability and basic sustenance, not on the added expense of organic produce. This scenario encapsulates the difficulty for Sri Lanka in adhering to rigorous climate goals while battling economic hardship.

The next leader must ensure that any international commitments are carefully balanced against the country’s economic capabilities, avoiding undue strain on its already challenged economy. It is essential to advocate for fair terms that recognise the unique struggles of developing nations like Sri Lanka, ensuring that global climate goals are pursued in a manner that is both equitable and achievable.

Unfair burden

In the ongoing global debate over climate action, it is critical to question why world leaders continue to enforce stringent climate goals on developing nations while failing to address the economic disparities that make such goals impractical.

Developing countries, like Sri Lanka, are being pressured to adopt expensive green technologies and reduce carbon emissions, despite their limited economic resources and reliance on cost-effective, traditional energy sources. The insistence on immediate compliance with high-cost climate measures, without providing adequate financial and technological support, places an undue burden on these nations.

This approach not only overlooks their economic vulnerabilities but also ignores the fact that developed countries, which historically have contributed the most to global emissions, continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels. The world’s leading economies should consider shifting their focus towards economic conservation and allowing developing nations the flexibility to pursue more affordable, sustainable solutions. Such an approach would ensure a more equitable transition to a low-carbon future, acknowledging the varied economic capacities and needs of all nations involved.

Sri Lanka’s commitment to achieving net-zero carbon status by 2050, as outlined in its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), is a noble but daunting task. The country is working towards this goal amidst significant economic pressures, including a recent contraction in GDP and ongoing inflation challenges. The push for a low-carbon economy includes ambitious targets like reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 14.5% by 2030, achieving 70% renewable energy in electricity generation by 2030, and increasing forest cover to 32% by the same year.

Global inequity

Nevertheless, major emitters like China and the United States persistently rely on fossil fuels. China, the world’s largest emitter of CO2, continues to invest heavily in coal power, drawing criticism for its perceived inadequate efforts to cut emissions. Meanwhile, the United States, despite progress in renewable energy, maintains a significant carbon footprint due to its continued dependence on fossil fuels and extensive industrial activities.

These major emitters not only contribute disproportionately to global greenhouse gas emissions but also benefit from relatively less stringent climate regulations compared to those imposed on developing countries. The economic models of China and the US are deeply entrenched in high-carbon industries, and their transition to greener alternatives is often gradual and selectively implemented.

The disparity between the emission targets of developing nations like Sri Lanka and the practices of major emitters highlights a significant global inequity. Developing countries, including Sri Lanka, are often pressured to adopt stringent climate measures while their economies are still emerging. The economic burden of transitioning to a low-carbon economy is substantial, given that these nations are still grappling with basic developmental challenges, such as poverty alleviation and infrastructure development.

Sri Lanka’s climate strategy, including the development of the Carbon Net Zero 2050 Roadmap and Strategic Plan, aims to address key sectors like energy, transport, industry, waste, agriculture, and forestry. However, the implementation of these measures requires substantial financial investment and technological support, which are often lacking in developing contexts.

For Sri Lanka, the challenge lies in balancing the immediate needs of its population with long-term climate goals. The pressure to conform to international climate agreements while ensuring economic stability and growth creates a complex scenario where immediate survival often takes precedence over environmental considerations.

Climate Vs. Economy

Sri Lanka’s development, economic stability, and price fluctuations are heavily influenced by its energy and transport sectors. However, the country’s commitments under international treaties and past pledges by former leaders, often made without fully accounting for Sri Lanka’s economic realities, have placed these crucial sectors under severe strain.

In the energy sector, Sri Lanka faces significant challenges due to its commitment to international climate agreements. The country is bound to achieve a 70% renewable energy target by 2030—a goal that is proving increasingly difficult given the current economic constraints. Traditionally, coal power has been the most cost-effective option for energy generation, but Sri Lanka is restricted from expanding its coal power capacity due to its climate commitments. This restriction places an additional financial burden on the country, making the renewable energy target appear almost unattainable. The Long-Term Generation Expansion Plan (LTGEP) of the Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) aims to meet this target and maintain a high level of renewable energy beyond 2030, but the financial and logistical challenges are substantial. The government’s push for energy conservation through Demand Side Management could help, but the constraints imposed by international obligations continue to impede progress.

Similarly, the transport sector is critical for Sri Lanka’s economic stability and overall development. It handles 94% of passenger transportation and 98% of freight transportation, making it central to daily life and economic activity. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant drop in transport demand, with passenger-kilometers falling from a peak of 231.5 billion in 2019 to 185.5 billion in 2020, partially due to a shift away from public transport. By 2021, demand had only partially recovered to 191.8 billion passenger-kilometers. Public transport’s modal share has decreased from 40.6% in 2019 to 33.0% in 2021.

In such a backdrop, the government’s Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for the automobile industry has further exacerbated issues. Under the SOP introduced by former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the assembly of affordable petrol three-wheelers—an essential and low-cost mode of transport for many Sri Lankans—has been banned. This policy, intended to promote electric vehicles, has overlooked the economic realities faced by the general public. Electric solutions are prohibitively expensive for most Sri Lankans, and the absence of three-wheeler assembly has led to the continued use of older, more polluting vehicles. As a result, the lack of affordable, environmentally friendly transportation options has forced many to rely on outdated and inefficient vehicles, further compounding environmental and economic issues.

Sri Lanka’s adherence to international climate commitments has placed undue strain on its energy and transport sectors. The restriction on coal power expansion and the ban on assembling affordable petrol three-wheelers highlight a disconnect between global climate goals and national economic realities.

The country’s journey towards achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 is a testament to its commitment to global climate goals. However, this commitment is challenged by the economic realities faced by its population, exemplified by families struggling to meet basic needs. The contrast between Sri Lanka’s efforts and the continued high-carbon practices of major emitters highlights the need for a more equitable global approach to climate action. To ensure that all nations can contribute to and benefit from a sustainable future, it is essential to address these disparities and provide support where it is most needed.

(The writer is an Attorney-at-Law with an LLM in International Business and Commercial Law. He can be reached at pmwsampathperera@gmail.com.)